Stray bullets and “mushrooms”: Random shootings of bystanders in four cities, 1977–1988

Bystanders killed by bullets not specifically intended for them have long been a very small part of the homicide problem. But the frequency of press accounts of such killings and woundings has apparently increased nationally in recent years. To test this impression, we compiled all shootings of bystanders hit at random and reported in the published indexes of theNew York Times, theLos Angeles Times, and theWashington Post for 1977–1988, as well as a key word computer search of stories in theBoston Globe. We found a rapid increase in both bystander woundings and killings since 1985 in all four cities. The base rate was quite low, and total bystander deaths appear to comprise less than 1% of all homicides in these cities. Nonetheless, the numbers were large enough to show that most bystanders reported shot in New York and Los Angeles are victims of random shootings into crowds, rather than single stray bullets striking a lone individual mushroom. The reverse was true in Boston and Washington, with the effect of much lower rates of bystanders reported shot in those cities.     

Reviews

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Public attitudes toward Social Security

In the early years of the Social Security program, public support for old-age pensions was high but knowledge and understanding about benefits and taxes were low. Understanding has greatly increased, even though the program has expanded, and support for Social Security has remained high. Data from the surveys and polls examined in this article indicate that support for Social Security was strong even during the late 1970's and early 1980's, when a fiscal crisis generated a crisis of confidence in the public's perception of the system's ability to pay benefits in the future. The proportion of the American public declaring confidence in the program declined sharply from a large majority with confidence (63 percent) in 1975 to a minority with confidence (39 percent) in 1978. Following the restoration of program financing through the provisions in the 1983 amendments, the trend has reversed. By 1988, nearly one-half of the public expressed confidence in the future of the Social Security program. For the most part, other aspects of public opinion regarding Social Security have shown great stability over the years. The program is popular and has been well-supported. Support for the Government to spend more for Social Security has been consistently high, as has support for benefits to increase with inflation and for benefits to increase even if it means higher taxes. Many individuals rely on income from Social Security or expect to rely on it when they retire. It is clear that the public wants the program to continue. If participation were optional, about three-fourths of the population would stay in the program.     

Low-intensity community supervision for low-risk offenders: a randomized,controlled trial

The Philadelphia Low-Intensity Community Supervision Experiment provides evidence on the effects of lowering the intensity of community supervision with low-risk offenders in an urban, US county community corrections agency. Using a random forests forecasting model for serious crime based on Berk et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 172(Part 1), 191–211, 2009, 1,559 low-risk offenders were identified and randomly assigned to either standard or reduced frequency of mandatory office visits. Treatment as assigned was substantially delivered at 4.5 probation visits per year versus 2.4, for as long as offenders remained on active probation or parole. In a one-year follow-up for all cases, outcomes examined were the prevalence, frequency, seriousness and time-to-failure of arrests for new crimes committed after random assignment was implemented. No significant differences (p = .05) in outcomes were found between standard and low-intensity groups. Non-significant differences for offense seriousness favored the low-intensity group. We conclude that lower-intensity supervision at the tested level of dosage can allow fewer officers to supervise low-risk offenders in the community without evidence of increased volume or seriousness of crime.     

The unfulfilled promise of an envisioned jewel: An attempt to transfer technology out of the splintering Soviet Union

This case study is based upon extensive interviews with a Fortune 500 company's new-products manager for Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. It focuses upon the American manager's attempt to establish an agreement to transfer a revolutionary technology out of the Soviet Union. This effort takes place as the Soviet Union is dissolving, adding complexity and uncertainty to an already extraordinarily challenging task. While ultimately unsuccessful, the case provides insight into the importance of risk-taking and the learning that results from failed experiments.He has received numerous teaching awards and has published articles in several academic and professional journals.     

Detection of malingering in competency to stand trial evaluations

A simulation design with multiple contrast groups was used to test the effectiveness of two instruments, the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS) and the Georgia Court Competency Test—Mississippi State Hospital (GCCT-MSH) in detecting malingering of competency to stand trial. Thirty simulators were compared with 23 incompetent defendants, 25 competent defendants, 30 offender controls, and 7 suspected malingerers on both instruments. Results revealed that the simulators and suspected malingerers scored significantly higher on all of the SIRS primary scales and significantly lower on the GCCT-MSH than the three comparison groups. The SIRS had an overall hit rate of 97.8% using three or more primary scales as the criterion for malingering. Information concerning the simulator's strategies of deception is presented.