What Do We Learn from Graduate Admissions Committees? A Multiple Rater, Latent Variable Model, with Incomplete Discrete and Continuous Indicators

What do we really know about applicants to graduate school?How much information is in an applicant's file? What do we learnby having graduate admissions committees read and score applicantfiles? In this article, I develop a statistical model for measuringapplicant quality, combining the information in the committeemembers' ordinal ratings with the information in applicants'GRE scores. The model produces estimates of applicant qualitypurged of the influence of committee members' preferences overostensibly extraneous applicant characteristics, such as genderand intended field of study. An explicitly Bayesian approachis adopted for estimation and inference, making it straightforwardto obtain confidence intervals not only on latent applicantquality but over rank orderings of applicants and the probabilityof belonging in a set of likely admittees. Using data from applicationsto a highly ranked political science graduate program, I showthat there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of applicantquality, making it impossible to make authoritative distinctionsas to quality among large portions of the applicant pool. Themultiple rater model I develop here is extremely flexible andhas applications in fields as diverse as judicial politics,legislative politics, international relations, and public opinion.     

Autonomy and audit--striking the balance

The Data Protection Act 1998 purports to implement European legislation which aims to protect the privacy of individuals. There were such concerns about the implications of the Act for certain research and audit that it became necessary to enact further legislation to enable such essential activities to continue. Although this empowers the Secretary of State for Health to approve proposals for these purposes, there should still be a requirement that the use of identifiable personal information without consent must be justified on compelling public interest grounds. It is this that can confound those seeking to rely on such justification. There can either be too cavalier an approach to the issue, and/or there is little sense of what considerations should come into play. This paper attempts to highlight some of the difficulties that are theoretically raised by some audit activities and set out the legal framework within which they must operate. However, the key focus is on how ethical considerations might inform the public interest argument.     

Parteistrategien auf Oligopolistischen Issue-Märkten. Eine Empirische Analyse der Wahlprogrammatik in Deutschland, Dänemark, Österreich und den Niederlanden mit Hilfe des Gutenberg-Modells

Based on saliency theory, the idea of issue ownership means that parties enjoy specific electoral support on certain issues. Narud/Valen (2001) have shown, moreover, that parties in multi-party systems must use the right issue-marketing to gain votes. This paper takes up the idea of issue marketing, making particular use of the microeconomic Gutenberg Model. I will sketch an issue market in which parties can win or lose votes by modifying their programmatic positions. If a party neglects its historically typical core issues, and does not successfully replace these with new core issues, the party will lose votes. I will test my hypotheses using the CMP data set to do a panel regression for Germany, Denmark, Austria, and the Netherlands. This confirms the hypothesized connection between programmatic and voter popularity, especially for social democratic parties.     

Short tandem repeat (STR) DNA markers are hypervariable and informative in Cannabis sativa: implications for forensic investigations

Short tandem repeat (STR) markers are the DNA marker of choice in forensic analysis of human DNA. Here we extend the application of STR markers to Cannabis sativa and demonstrate their potential for forensic investigations. Ninety-three individual cannabis plants, representing drug and fibre accessions of widespread origin were profiled with five STR makers. A total of 79 alleles were detected across the five loci. All but four individuals from a single drug-type accession had a unique multilocus genotype. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed significant genetic variation among accessions, with an average of 25% genetic differentiation. By contrast, only 6% genetic difference was detected between drug and fibre crop accessions and it was not possible to unequivocally assign plants as either drug or fibre type. However, our results suggest that drug strains may typically possess lower genetic diversity than fibre strains, which may ultimately provide a means of genetic delineation. Our findings demonstrate the promise of cannabis STR markers to provide information on: (1) agronomic type, (2) the geographical origin of drug seizures, and (3) evidence of conspiracy in production of clonally propagated drug crops.     

A study of how individuals solve complex and ill-structured problems

A number of factors cause individuals to use diverse strategies to solve problems. This paper presents a methodology for examining these differences in strategy. Verbal protocols are elicited to collect data on the cognitive processes occurring during problem solving. These data, codified into propositional representations, and non-parametric statistical comparisons are then used to evaluate the significance of strategy differences. These strategies are then mapped with dynamical graphs, with which we examine the task-independent and the task-specific cognitive representations the participants used. As an illustrative example we apply this methodology to study the influence of two contributing factors, professional training and national culture, on the strategies adopted by professionals to solve a complex and ill-structured problem (hunger in a country). The problem-solving strategies of professionals from different countries and trained in architecture, engineering, law or medicine are analyzed to show some intriguing differences in the general strategies adopted by individuals belonging to different professions, and the outcomes from using these strategies.     

Finding out rapidly: A soft systems approach to training needs analysis in Thailand

Thailand is experiencing the unfamiliar phenomenon of aid and multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank lending money for internal development programmes. In the economic boom years, aid was neither sought nor required since structural development was funded from the growth which South-East Asian countries had begun to take for granted. Today, falling growth and rising unemployment linked to a depreciating currency and weak export markets have meant that Thailand has had to look elsewhere for development capital and to become proficient in managing educational projects. This article describes a rapid training needs analysis of the Thai educational sector commissioned by the British Council, the purpose of which was to discover the capacity of the education sector to undertake and deliver externally funded projects. Using the Kolb learning cycle as a paradigm of good practice, and an adapted version of the soft systems approach to planning, the paper describes a learning process for developing an action plan to produce a training package for enhancing project management skills. Finally, the paper reflects on the experience of the project and sets out some learning objectives for future exercises of this type.     

Contextual meanings in policy discourse: A case study of language use concerning resource policy in the New Zealand high country

Variation in the meaning and use of the term landscape by different decision makers and decision influencers in the New Zealand high country is analysed in relation to the way they describe a resource policy issue. The case study is based upon documentary sources and oral accounts of the role that trees might play in high country land use. Links between language use and interest are identified and explored, and some consequential implications discussed.