Attack and Response in Political Campaigns: An Experimental Study in Two Parts

Although there is evidence that negative advertising “works” at least some of the time, little is known about how candidates should respond when they are attacked. In this study, we proceed from the assumption that hard-hitting attacks on relevant topics (those that speak to how someone will perform in office), if well-crafted and credible, are most likely to have the desired outcome and, hence, are the ones that targeted candidates can least afford to ignore. We use data from two experiments, first, to confirm this assumption and, second, to assess the relative effectiveness of five response types: counterattacks, denials, counterimaging, justifications, and charges of mudslinging. Our results suggest that while some responses work better than others, there are a variety of ways, both positive and negative, to “reframe” a campaign attack so as to diminish its potential impact on voters.     

Democratization and the Disfranchisement of African Americans in the US South during the Late 19th Century

The disfranchisement of African Americans in the South during the late 19th century highlights the role that mass actors, in this case African Americans, can play as part of the enforcement mechanism to prevent elites from backtracking on democracy. This episode in US history further suggests that for democratic progress to be consolidated, vulnerable groups require sufficient economic and social power to defend their formal rights. Newly emancipated African Americans gained the franchise in 1870. They voted in large numbers for two decades. But at the turn of the century each Southern state introduced disfranchising measures. The article discusses the efforts of Southern political elites to restore the antebellum social and political order, and the reasons the national state failed to intervene to protect the rights of former slaves. Above all, the article explores the nature of African American resistance and its effect on the timing and course of disfranchisement. It also draws attention to the importance of African American resistance by comparing Southern disfranchisement with the little-known cases of attempted disfranchisement of African Americans in the antebellum North and early 20th century Maryland. The article concludes that the relative strength of African Americans in contemporary America makes another rollback of democratic rights unlikely.     

Decisions to offend in men who sexually abuse their daughters

Abstract

A group of nine intrafamilial child molesters of daughters and stepdaughters from Canada and the United Kingdom were interviewed about their analysis of opportunities to sexually offend. Questions focused on the evaluation of immediate and life circumstances surrounding the offence, including how the offender defined, created and responded to opportunities for offending. An equally important goal was identifying strengths in resisting opportunities and coping with spoiled attempts. The interviews were transcribed and subjected to grounded theory analysis. Consistent with the rational choice theory of criminal behaviour the majority of offenders identified information and decision-making processes used to evaluate opportunities for offending. Themes related to offender and victim characteristics, as well as situational factors, are identified and discussed with respect to risk and protective factors. Offenders described positive relationships, greater social/community connectedness and successful employment as present in their lives when not offending. These elements are consistent with positive approaches to sexual offender treatment and management.     

Visualisation of fingermarks and grab impressions on dark fabrics using silver vacuum metal deposition

Vacuum metal deposition (VMD) involves the thermal evaporation of metal (silver) in a vacuum, resulting in a uniform layer being deposited on the specimen being treated. This paper examines the use of silver on dark fabrics, thus offering a simpler operation and more obvious colouration to that of the traditional use of gold and zinc metals which must be evaporated separately. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of fabric type, donor, mark age and method of fingermark deposition on the quality of marks visualised using silver VMD. This was achieved by collecting fingermark deposits from fifteen donors, of both sexes and various ages, by a grab or a press method. Four different fabrics: satin, polyester, polycotton and cotton were studied over a 10 day timeline of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 14, 21 and 28 + days. It was found that satin and polyester gave the most positive results, with polyester often producing excellent ridge detail. Cotton and polycotton were less successful with no ridge detail being observed. The donors also had an observable effect on the results obtained probably due to variations in secretions produced or pressures applied during specimen collection. The age of the mark or the method of mark deposition had little influence on the results obtained. Silver VMD is a viable process for visualising marks on certain dark fabrics and has the advantage over gold/zinc VMD in that the marks visualised are light in colour which contrasts well against the dark background.     

Left behind: The social democratic party in Eastern Germany

Four long‐term structural complications have prevented the Social Democratic Party of Germany from establishing a large party membership in eastern Germany since unification: the injurious legacy of Nazi and communist rule, the contradictions that arose in the 1980s out of the SPD's Ostpolitik, the flawed birth and development of the eastern SPD, and continuing tensions between the eastern and western wings of the party. Since none of these structural problems is likely to change quickly, the SPD will remain impaired in the East for the foreseeable future. This in turn will make it extremely difficult for the SPD to win federal elections.     

Lewis S. Feuer: The Scholar as Intellectual

The career of Lewis S. Feuer spanned several disciplines—Philosophy, Sociology, Politics, and History (especially the History of Ideas); his books and articles covered several centuries, and were devoted primarily to exposing the emotional undercurrents that animated the thought of intellectuals. Feuer tended to be highly suspicious of intellectuals, because they were susceptible to the allure of ideologies, which masked a dangerous will to power. His greatest achievement was to connect the contours of political and social thought to the drives of persons and to the context of institutions; his greatest limitation was to miss, at least in the United States, the deeper problem of popular hostility to science and to knowledge itself.     

From laboratory to the WMD Commission: how academic research influences intelligence agencies

Academic research can improve national security, yet the process by which findings flow from the ivory tower to intelligence agencies is not well understood by scholars. This article addresses this gap through an exploratory case study of when research impacted intelligence: the incorporation of cognitive biases research in intelligence analysis. The results of this study illustrate the importance of idea entrepreneurs—individuals who promote academic research—as well as the need for making academic findings applicable to intelligence practitioners. These results, while based on a single case, suggest new avenues for scholarship exploring knowledge utilization in intelligence.     

Norm diffusion and the limits to forestry governance reform in Southeast Asia's new democracies

Abstract

The return of the World Bank Group (WBG) to Burma after some 25 years’ absence, along with other international financial organizations, follows a series of extraordinary political reforms that have taken place in the country since 2010. Burma has made a transition from 50 years of authoritarian rule to what its leaders call ‘disciplined democracy’. This paper examines the likely consequences of the Bank's return for the forestry sector in Burma and the potential outcomes in forestry governance given the evolution of its development agenda over the past 25 years. While measures to address deforestation have been applied in Southeast Asia, the success of forestry governance reforms depends to a large extent on their endorsement and adoption by local power structures and political figures, as well as on the nature of the political regime itself. The record on forestry governance in Southeast Asia is particularly poor and international financial organizations continue to neglect the local political economy of deforestation. Comparatively, few studies have attempted to investigate the relationship between types of political regimes and rates of deforestation. The paper examines two other new democracies in Southeast Asia (Indonesia and Cambodia), and the impact that governance reforms have had on their deforestation trends and land use, in order to contextualize the potential impact of the WBG's return to Burma. In Southeast Asia, powerful vested interests continue to outweigh the support inside governments or civil society for the forestry governance norms promoted by international organizations. The cases of Indonesia, Cambodia and Burma illustrate that deep patrimonial interests operate within the region and that local politics cannot be ignored by international organizations designing policy reforms. The WBG should effectively engage wherever possible with the local communities and a broad range of civil society groups before developing further initiatives.     

Reviews

THE ROOTS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD LA TIN AMERICA

G. Pope Atkins, Latin America in the International Political System, second edition. (Boulder: Westview Press, 1989. Pp. 421.)

Lars Schoultz: National Security and United States Policy toward Latin America. (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1987. Pp. 377.)

Kevin J. Middlebrook and Carlos Rico, eds.: The United States and Latin America in the 1980s (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1986. Pp. 648. Second printing 1988.)

GENEROSITY AND SELF‐INTEREST

Teresa Odendahl: Charity Begins at Home: Generosity and Self‐interest among the Philanthropic Elite. (New York: Basic Books, 1990. Pp. 298.)

HOBBES AMONG THE PATRIARCHS

Arnold A. Rogow: Thomas Hobbes: Radical in the Service of Reaction. (New York: W. W. Norton Company, 1986. Pp. 287.)

STRACHEY AND MACLEAN: BRITISH ALTERNA TIVES

Michael Newman: John Strachey. (Manchester: Manchester Press, 1989. Pp. 201.)

B. J. Ripley and J. McHugh: John Maclean. (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1989. Pp. 201.)     

Eye of the Beholder: Partisanship,Identity, and the Politics of Sexual Harassment

Political Behavior - Two current members of the U.S. Supreme Court took their seats despite allegations of sexual harassment (Clarence Thomas) and sexual assault (Brett Kavanaugh) leveled against...