Saving the league: V.K. Wellington Koo,the league of nations and Sino‐Japanese conflict, 1931–39

In 1919, VK. Wellington Koo, the most famous Chinese diplomat of the early twentieth century, participated in the creation of the League of Nations at the Paris Peace Conference. Little over a decade later, as Japanese forces expanded into Manchuria and North China, Koo struggled to save the League he had helped found. He argued that inability or refusal to brand Japan as an aggressor would sound the League's death knell. In vain, Koo tried to convince European statesmen that the Far Eastern Crisis was a litmus test of the League's viability as a collective security organization. From 1936 on, League inaction in the face of Japanese, German and Italian expansion left Koo thoroughly disillusioned. The lessons of the League were not forgotten during World War II, when Koo argued that a more effective collective security organization, in the form of the United Nations, be created on a basis similar to Franklin D. Roosevelt's Four Policemen concept.     

Conflict management and conflict resolution

In examining constructive responses to the problems caused by violent ethnic conflict a distinction is often made between the ‘management’ and ‘resolution’ approaches. Indeed, they are often defined so as to make them incompatible with each other. The basic assumptions upon which the differences between these two approaches are based are analysed, and the weaknesses of each are explored. Finally, the assumption of basic incompatibility is questioned, because it is generally unhelpful in promoting conflict resolution; and an attempt is made to show how the two approaches can be combined by introducing the concept of peace‐keeping (management) and peace‐making and peace‐building (resolution).     

Nuclear proliferation and ‘realistic deterrence’ in a new century

Deterrence became an all‐purpose theory and policy solution during the Cold War. The end of the Cold War has caused theorists and policy‐makers to ask whether deterrence is still either practicable or theoretically compelling. The prospect of additional and angry state and non‐state actors armed with nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD), together with long‐range delivery systems, threatens to shake the foundations of deterrence stability. In this article we consider whether this is so. First, we examine some of the theoretical arguments for a benign world with nuclear proliferation and some reasons to be skeptical about those arguments. Second, we consider the current status of nuclear weapons spread and some of the particular challenges presented to deterrence and arms race stability by nuclear proliferation.     

Triad of terror: post-START reductions in broader context

Abstract

This paper considers the present condition and future prospects for post-Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (post-START) nuclear arms reductions in the following sequence. First, we review the essential features of the agreement between Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in July 2009, for a START follow-on agreement. Second, we discuss the larger political and military-strategic contexts within which these post-START negotiations will play out. Third, we perform an analysis to determine whether the START follow-on guidelines would meet prospective requirements for mutual deterrence and, in addition, whether US–Russian reductions could safely go even lower. Fourth, we take a specific look at the estimated impact of defenses on deterrence stability under post-START reductions. Fifth, pertinent conclusions are summarized.     

The measurement and influence of child sexual abuse supportive beliefs

Abstract

The identification of offence-related cognition is a major target of most cognitive–behavioural treatment programmes for sexual offenders, and a number of measures are available for this purpose. This study assessed the psychometric properties of a brief measure of beliefs that support and justify child sexual abuse: the Sex With Children (SWCH) scale. Factor analysis revealed two distinct types of belief: that sex with children is harmless, and that children actively provoke adults into having sex with them. The SWCH was also found to have good internal consistency, test–retest reliability and concurrent validity. Child molesters scored significantly more highly on the SWCH than did rapists or non-offenders, and high-risk child molesters reported more entrenched offence-supportive beliefs than lower risk child molesters. A relationship was also observed between general offence-supportive beliefs as measured by SWCH and offence-specific cognitions ascribing responsibility or enjoyment to the offender's victim. The SWCH subscales appeared to closely match two of the implicit theories hypothesized by Ward and Keenan (1999 Ward, T. and Keenan, T. 1999. Child molesters’ implicit theories. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 14: 821–838. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to be related to child molestation. Sex offender treatment providers need to be aware of the relationship between underlying implicit theories and offence-specific distorted cognitions about the victim's experience.     

Was Ellen Wronged?

Imagine a citizen (call her Ellen) engages in conduct the state says is a crime, for example, money laundering. Imagine too that the state of which Ellen is a citizen has decided to make money laundering a crime. Does the state wrong Ellen when it punishes her for money laundering? It depends on what you think about the authority of the criminal law. Most criminal law scholars would probably say that the criminal law as such has no authority. Whatever authority is has depends on how well it adheres to the demands of morality inasmuch as morality is the only authority we have. Thus if morality says that money laundering should not be a crime then the state wrongs Ellen when it punishes her. But if the criminal law as such does have authority, and if in the exercise of its authority the state has decided to make money laundering a crime, then the state does Ellen no wrong when it punishes her.     

Police interrogation

Abstract

We describe a study of more than 1000 interrogations by Metropolitan Police Officers. Obtaining a confession is found to be the paramount reason for interviewing a suspect. However, few suspects who did not initially confess changed their minds during the interview. 42% of suspects admitted their guilt—about the same number as obtained before tape recording of interviews was introduced. Strength of evidence and legal advice were the principal factors associated with confessing. The confession rate also varied according to which police station hosted the “interview”. An “accusatorial” style of questioning was associated with the possession of strong evidence against the suspect.     

Predicting multiple victim versus single victim sexual abuse: an examination of distal factors and proximal factors associated with the first abuse incident

Abstract

Official and confidential self-report data on 83 convicted adult male sexual abusers were analysed to examine whether sexual offending progression can be better predicted from distal antecedents, or from proximal antecedents and outcomes associated with the first sexual abuse incident. Fifty-six offenders who sexually abused more than one victim (multiple victim offenders; MVOs) were compared to 27 offenders who sexually abused a single victim only (single victim offenders; SVOs). MVOs were younger at the time of their first sexual abuse incident, and were more likely to first abuse male and non-familial children. With the exception of sexual attraction to male children, no differences were found between the two groups on distal antecedents. Proximal antecedents and outcomes associated with the first sexual abuse incident were significantly related to multiple victim offending. Logistic regression analysis identified the presence of sexual difficulties in the month prior to the first abuse incident, and sexual excitement immediately preceding the first incident, as significant unique predictors. Implications for risk assessment and risk management are discussed, and future research directions proposed.     

Sexual offenders’ parental and adult attachments and preferences for therapists’ interpersonal qualities

ABSTRACT

This study explored sex offenders' parental and adult attachment difficulties and assessed the extent to which these were associated with preferences for therapists' interpersonal qualities. One-hundred and twelve adult male child sexual offenders were invited to provide self-report data on their attachment histories, adult attachments and preferences for therapists' interpersonal qualities. A weak relationship between childhood and adulthood secure attachment was found, suggesting that attachment at the time of offending may be more relevant than childhood attachment to the aetiology of sexual offending. Participants valued a range of therapists' qualities previously identified as important for positive treatment change. Therapist trust and genuineness were perceived as particularly important by those with attachment difficulties, demonstrating the need for these qualities in offender programmes where attachment difficulties would be expected. There were some differences in the preferences for therapists' qualities between participants with different adult attachment types, highlighting the importance of responsivity factors in treatment.