Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Distrust of Government, the Vigilante Tradition, and Support for Capital Punishment

This study probes the interconnections among distrust of government, the historical context, and public support for the death penalty in the United States with survey data for area-identified samples of white and black respondents. Multilevel statistical analyses indicate contrary effects of government distrust on support for the death penalty for blacks and whites, fostering death penalty support among whites and diminishing it among blacks. In addition, we find that the presence of a "vigilante tradition," as indicated by a history of lynching, promotes death penalty support among whites but not blacks. Finally, contrary to Zimring's argument in The Contradictions of Capital Punishment , we find no evidence that vigilantism moderates the influence of government distrust on support for the death penalty, for either whites or blacks. Our analyses highlight the continuing influence of historical context as well as contemporary conditions in the formation of public attitudes toward criminal punishment, and they underscore the importance of attending to racial differences in the analysis of punitive attitudes.     

Managing the Environment: Rhetoric, Policy and Reality

This article argues that, despite environmental issues climbing higher on the political agenda and considerable recent policy activity, rhetoric is not matched by reality in our efforts to manage the Australian environment. We integrate the imperatives emerging from the policy and sustainability literatures and from actual policy, with detailed work on wildlife conservation in Victoria's Central Highlands. Our analysis demonstrates that, rather than undertaking the more intensive policy and 'adaptive management' that is needed, governments are often doing less and may actually be 'taking their hands of their wheel'. Some public policy and administration implications of the emerging policy field of sustainability are illustrated.     

Asian literature as a tool for cultural identity creation in Europe. Goethe’s Hafiz

By the eighteenth century the colonial powers in Europe already had well-defined images and self-images, crystalised from their native cultures, their significance within Europe, and their mercantile and political relations with other continents. Yet Germany, which would have no prospect of a unified polity till late in the following century, remained severely challenged in all these respects. From the mid eighteenth century, however, Germany’s greatest minds sought to mould for it a cultural identity, and as a vital step in this, the poet, statesman and scientist Goethe, a man indebted to a form of patronage which peculiarly qualified him to undertake such experiments, conducted a series of literary encounters with the great traditions of Asia. Their purpose was to situate Germany within the wider world culture, for one can only be a cultural force within a world to which one has some cultural relation. Goethe’s forays into the worlds of Persian, Indian and Chinese literature were attempts at creative imitation, cultural absorption and public confrontation, but their culture-building and appropriative character was also a form of vicarious imperialism, a new-world enterprise conducted by means of old-world patronage. Goethe’s carefully nuanced representations in the West-Eastern Divan indicate the advocacy of a secular cosmopolitanism, the popular impact of which has been hitherto underestimated.