Dead Heat: The 2006 Public Choice Society Election

In 2006, the Public Choice Society chose a new president using approval voting. There were five candidates, and the election was extremely close. We indicate the sources of support of the different candidates, based in part on spectral analysis, by voters who cast between one and five votes. Using preference information that was also gathered, we show that two candidates different from the approval voting winner, including the apparent Condorcet winner, might have won under different voting systems. Because most voters did not indicate their complete preference rankings, however, these differences are hardly robust, especially since the outcome was essentially a dead heat.     

Biotechnology, Ethics and the Politics of Cloning

As the debates over cloning and stem cell research indicate, issues raised by biotechnology combine research into the genetic sciences, perspectives and contexts articulated by the social sciences, and the ethical and anthropological concerns of philosophy. Consequently, we argue that intervening in the debates over biotechnology require supradisciplinary critical philosophy and social theory to illuminate the problems and their stakes. More specifically, we will demonstrate problems with the cloning of animals that for now render the cloning of humans unacceptable. In addition, we take on arguments for and against stem cell research and contend that it contains positive potential for medical advances that should not be blocked by problematic conservative positions. Nonetheless, we believe that the entire realm of biotechnology is fraught with dangers and problems that require careful study and democratic debate of key ethical and political issues.     

Pricing Outputs: A Case Study in Law Enforcement

This paper discusses the advantages and limitations of economic evaluation as a measurement methodology within the Australian government's outcome and output framework including preliminary benefit–cost analysis of Australian Federal Police investigations. The results suggest that the Australian Federal Police is returning over $5 to the community for every dollar invested in fraud and drug investigations. It is concluded that benefit–cost analysis is a useful tool for comparing the price of an output to the value of an outcome. The method has limitations. Not all outcomes will admit of easy assessment and the information may be difficult to collect. However, the use of surrogate measures and extrapolation of results may overcome most of these limitations.     

Psychosocial Correlates of Intimacy Achievement Among Adolescent Fathers-to-Be

We investigated the relation between urban psychosocial stressors and intimacy achievement in a sample of 59 African American, Hispanic American, and White adolescent fathers-to-be. Participants received an intimacy score based on Orlofsky's Intimacy Status Rating Scale. Those with higher cumulative psychosocial stressors had lower levels of intimacy. One psychosocial risk factor, low interpersonal empathy, was significantly associated with intimacy levels. African Americans had lower levels of intimacy than Hispanic or White participants.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage,Oswald Masebo,and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘writing history: flow and blockage in the circulation of knowledge’

ABSTRACT

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage, Oswald Masebo, and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘Writing History: Flow and Blockage in the Circulation of Knowledge’     

The “dark figure” and composite indexes of crime: Some empirical explorations of alternative data sources

This paper compares composite crime indexes across two alternative data sources—the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Survey (NCS). A variety of indexes are constructed based on weights derived from Sellin and Wolfgang's “seriousness” scale. The results reveal that indexes weighted by offense seriousness are not very highly correlated across data sources for a sample of twenty-six American cities. The substantive importance of the discrepancies between UCR and NCS estimates is illustrated by examining the ecological correlates of weighted crime rates for the twenty-six city sample and by assessing changes in weighted crime rates at the national level for the 1973-81 period. The results also reveal that if estimates of homecide are included in the composite indexes by supplementing the NCS data with data from the Center for Health Statistics, then under certain weighting conditions the correlations across data sources are nearly perfect. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of this latter finding for the measurement of overall levels of criminal activity and for the scaling of the relative gravity of different offenses.