USING LINEAR TREND MODELS TO ANALYZE POLICY IMPACT

Policy researchers have become increasingly familiar with a number of improved techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs for evaluating public programs and policies. In this paper we contribute to this trend by presenting two groups of data analysis techniques which are not currently widely used by policy researchers, but are likely to be valuable adjuncts to traditional regression techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs. First, aids for model specification are presented that enable the analyst to define an appropriate linear trend model—often one which will reduce the degree of multicollinearity and, therefore, produce more precise estimates of the impacts of a public program or policy. Next we consider approaches for point estimation and joint (simultaneous) interval estimation of a policy intervention's total effect at various points in time.     

Sex differences within the family: Studies of adolescent and parent family interactions

Sex differences in verbal family interactions were investigated in a group of 79 adolescents and parents from normal and psychiatric settings. The analyses were designed to study these differences in both generations, parent and adolescent. Parent and adolescent interactions with one another were observed in a semistructured, revealed-differences family discussion. All of the individual speeches were then scored with our Constraining and Enabling Coding System (CECS). Initial predictions involved both adolescent and parent differences. These hypotheses were only partially confirmed. The strongest findings pertained to parent sex differences, as we found strikingly higher levels of cognitive enabling speeches expressed by fathers and significantly more speeches addressed to fathers. We discuss several alternative interpretations of these findings. Perspectives included in our considerations are direction of effect and influences of task/context upon the expression of family sex differences.This study was supported through a grant from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD Grant No. R01 HD18684-02) and a Research Scientist Development Award No. 5 K-02-MH-70178 (Dr. Hauser) from the NIMH.Received M.D. from Yale University and Ph.D. from Harvard University (psychology). Currently studying family contexts of adolescent development.Received B.A. from Michigan University. Currently graduate student in organizational behavior, Northwestern University. Current interests are women and work.Received his Ph.D. from Boston University. Research interests are in methodology and statistics.Henry A. Murray Research Center of Radcliffe College. Received Ed. D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying family coping processes in response to stressful events.Received Ph.D. from Ohio State University (psychology). Current interests in assessing ego development and family systems.Parent-Place, Judge Baker Guidance Center. Received Ph.D. from the University of Miami (clinical psychology). Research interests are in family studies and adolescent development.Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Currently studying psychological consequences of diabetes mellitus.the Children's Unit of McLean Hospital. Received Diploma Psych. from Freie Universitat, Berlin (clinical psychology), and Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying relationships between psychopathology and development among adolescent psychiatric patients.     

South Africa’s civil war, 1985–1995

The end of apartheid in South Africa is typically characterised as ‘peaceful’. However, between 1985 and 1995, South Africa experienced a civil war in which more than 20,000 people died. In this war, the African National Congress (ANC) implemented a strategy of ‘people’s war’ based on Vietnam’s experience while the government pursued a counterinsurgency strategy based on models employed by the United States. In the war’s second phase, the ANC and Inkatha employed unconventional tactics in a campaign to gain political and military control of disputed territory. Owing to its success in the war, the ANC was able to prevent its rivals from significantly limiting its power in the central government after 1994 as well as exclude Inkatha from operating in key areas even in its home province.     

Out of Malta,Beginning Anew

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) held in Malta witnessed high drama in the election of Patricia Scotland as the organisation’s new Secretary-General. This article notes, among other things, that it once again demonstrated the myth that the Secretary-General is chosen on the basis of consensus. In the view of the author, although the conference discussed a number of issues of substance and importance, there is an urgent need to give the Secretariat new collective purpose and vision. Malta, argues the article, provided an important point of departure, and the next CHOGM, to be held in Britain in 2018, offers Commonwealth organisations and civil society an opportunity to make their own unique and enhanced contributions.     

Analogy and Authority in Cyberterrorism Discourse: An Analysis of Global News Media Coverage

This article explores constructions of cyberterrorism within the global news media between 2008 and 2013. It begins by arguing that the preoccupation with questions of definition, threat and response in academic literature on cyberterrorism is problematic, for two reasons. First, because it neglects the constitutivity of representations of cyberterrorism in the news media and beyond; second, because it prioritises policy-relevant research. To address this, the article provides a discursive analysis drawing on original empirical research into 31 news media outlets across the world. Although there is genuine heterogeneity in representations of cyberterrorism therein, we argue that constructions of this threat rely heavily on two strategies. First, appeals to authoritative or expert “witnesses” and their institutional or epistemic credibility; second, generic or historical analogies, which help shape understanding of the likelihood and consequences of cyberterrorist attack. These strategies have particular discursive importance, we argue, given the lack of readily available empirical examples of the “reality” of cyberterrorism.     

Hidden corporate profits in the U.S. prison system: the unorthodox policy-making of the American Legislative Exchange Council

Using a leaked document trove containing 800 model bills, we analyze the American Legislative Exchange Council’s (ALEC) hidden corporate profit making in the prison–industrial complex. We find that ALEC seeks to expand the private prison industry in three ways: (1) promoting greater use of private prisons, goods, and services, (2) promoting greater use of prison labor, and (3) increasing the size of the prison population. ALEC’s efforts to increase the prison population by expanding definitions of existing crime, creating new crimes, enhancing enforcement of existing crimes, amending the trial process to increase the likelihood of incarceration, and lengthening prison sentences for crimes pose a threat to civil liberties. ALEC’s unorthodox policy approach exemplifies John Gaventa’s theory that powerful interests maintain their power by creating conditions in which citizens are not able to identify and advocate on behalf of their interests.     

“I could not have made it without them”: Examining Trainee Cohort Perspectives on MSW Education for Public Child Welfare

This article reports findings from an evaluation of an MSW child welfare training program focused on increasing retention of knowledgeable, competent and experienced child protective service workers. From qualitative data gathered as part of the process evaluation, we found the cohort effect to be the most salient factor participants experienced as contributing to their successful program completion and their 100% retention rate. Analysis of the cohort effect yielded five themes instrumental in participants' individual and collective success: mutual support, empowerment, belief in self and their finding of a home base which ultimately helped them to launch their professional selves.     

行政伦理学应关注的四个重大问题

本文认为行政伦理学的发展必须倡导对该领域内重大问题的关注以及学者们在此类研究中的合作努力,作者提出四个值得关注的重要问题公共行政伦理学研究的规范性基础、全球化、组织设计、平等问题。