Do revenue forecasts influence budget setting? A small group experiment

This article reports on the results of a small group experiment relating the effects of situational and psychological factors to the use of revenue forecast information on budgetary decision-making. The results suggest objective information is not completely ignored because of conditions in the budgetary environment and that one's role in the budget process influences how objective information is used. The results also indicate that some useful insights for budget theory are possible from small group experiments.This research is part of the Public Management Information Systems Project. The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments provided on earlier drafts of this paper by William Ascher, Joseph Lipscomb and two anonymous referees.     

The Effects of Pregnancy Experience on Contraceptive Practice

Retrospective reports of contraceptive use on two occasions of intercourse (separated by 2 years on average) were used to examine change in contraceptive practice as a function of intervening pregnancy experience in a randomly selected biracial (Black, White) sample of 466 female adolescents. Although all groups of adolescents regardless of pregnancy experience improved their contraceptive use, adolescents experiencing an unplanned pregnancy or pregnancy scare appeared to improve relatively more. However, differences between groups could be explained by the differential passage of time, and this was true among both Black and White adolescents. Specifically, ever-pregnant adolescents had been sexually active the longest and showed the most improvement; never-pregnant adolescents who had never had a pregnancy scare had been sexually active the shortest period and showed the least improvement, while adolescents experiencing a pregnancy scare were intermediate on both variables. These findings suggest that prior research may have drawn faulty conclusions about the effects of pregnancy experience on subsequent contraceptive behavior, and that future research on these topics may need to pay greater attention to the passage of time as an important substantive and methodological factor in its own right.     

Lumpy preference structures

A widely held and durable normative position has been that policy analysts should attempt to estimate the evaluative reaction of those who will be most directly affected by a government sponsored or regulated technology. The premise of applied welfare economics is that citizens would divide, substitute and additively recombine their assessments of the project's impacts in the same manner. This paper outlines an alternative theory by arguing that citizen preferences will often be contingent upon, rather than divisible from, the substantive and procedural characteristics of the context in which a choice takes place. Moreover, one can predict that the manner in which these evaluations are substituted and recombined will vary with the internal structure of one's value and belief system. By representing that system in terms of a hierarchical model composed of four factors — common orientation, procedural judgment, desire for personal control and substantive evaluation — it is argued that the evaluations of a project will be combined by way of interactive, indirect and non-recursive relationships as well as the common additive expectations. Some of the implications of this alternative theory for policy analysis are explored.