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401.
This paper demonstrates the application of a mathematical programming model to a longstanding policy issue in the Medicaid reform debate: the redistribution of program funds necessary to achieve equity in eligibility and benefit coverage across states. The model is used to estimate the potential degree of equity achievable in the current Medicaid system given various budgetary and political constraints. Two model simulations, based on a 1979 data set for aged recipients of Supplementary Security Income, are presented. The results indicate that half or more of the interstate differences in spending for this population group are due to actuarial and efficiency factors rather than deviations from equity potential. The implications of eliminating the remaining differences are discussed. 相似文献
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After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples. 相似文献
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Some aspects of determining what proportion of defendants to release before trial are discussed using cost and other data obtained from judges, prosecutors, defense attorneys, and bail project directors in twenty-three cities. Various holding costs, releasing costs, and percentages of defendants held are used. Smooth curves are fitted to the data points to determine at what percentage of defendants held the total cost curve bottoms out. The effects of varying the costs and the cities, the causal implications of why the optimum percentage differs substantially from the actual percentage, and the policy implications of using the analysis in pretrial release policy and in reducing the total costs are shown. Ways in which the model can be expanded to obtain insights into the optimum level of various kinds of due process and law enforcement are also indicated. 相似文献
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While the study of mature organizations and bureaucracies is well established, there has been comparatively little examination of the creation and development of new organizations. What work has been done is highly fragmented, primarily by discipline, and concentrates on different facets of a complex phenomenon. Following a literature review and classification this article attempts a conceptual integration; it proposes a system dynamics model for the creation and development of one particular organizational type: new, technology based organizations. Drawing upon concepts from ecology, the central concept of the model is that new venture creation takes place within, and is thus dependent upon, a larger context of "ecosystem" consisting of environmental resources (technical expertise, capital, services) and existing inhabitants (individuals, firms, and institutions). Intraorganizational factors are also discussed including a set of proposed measures for new venture success. The article closes with some suggestions for the direction of future research and describes a research project the authors have recently begun. 相似文献
410.
Stuart J. Kaufman 《安全研究》2013,22(3):400-434
According to symbolic politics theory, group fears and narratives of group identity that justify hostility are key causes of violent ethno-national conflict. In the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, widely accepted narratives on each side define group identity and group relations in ways that generate incompatible demands on Jerusalem, territory, refugees, security, and other issues. Historical memories of the Holocaust, the Nakba, and other tragedies generate fears of extinction on both sides, and stereotypes encourage beliefs on each side that the other responds only to force. These narratives enable hard-line leaders on both sides to manipulate emotive symbols to block compromise and escalate conflict. Thus the cause of both the failure of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in 2000-01 and the simultaneous outbreak of the latest Palestinian-Israeli war lies in the irreconcilable demands that are rooted in each side's competing narratives of national identity. 相似文献