日本在缅甸的平衡外交:特点与困境

冷战时期,日本与缅甸建立了特殊的历史友好关系,但在1988年以后双边关系较为冷淡。尽管日本之后一再努力,希望恢复昔日对缅影响与特殊的邦交,但收效甚微。日本在对缅关系上,一方面利用援助制裁实行有限的压力政策,另一方面又保持对缅接触,实行制裁和接触政策之间的中间路线。日本在缅甸问题上表现出的两面性,是其在国内各界分歧、日美基轴外交与亚洲独立外交、国家利益与价值观外交之间相互平衡的结果。     

“欧元乐园”的迷失与重建——兼论对东亚区域货币合作的启示

希腊主权债务危机引发的欧元危机是对欧洲区域经济与货币一体化的一次重大考验,深刻反映了欧洲经货联盟成立以来所出现的两大问题:成员国之间经济的不平衡发展以及联盟合作机制的缺陷。欧元危机给东亚区域货币与金融合作的启示是,在以欧盟货币合作为样板的同时,应着重加强区域内信息共享与政策合作,以清迈倡议(CMI)和清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)为基础加快东亚货币合作机制建设,完善区域监管体系;同时加强区域内各国汇率合作和资本账户自由化,稳步推进区域金融市场一体化进程,逐步缩小各国之间汇率波动的幅度,以此推进东亚区域经济合作向纵深发展。     

Transnational Advocates and Labor Rights Enforcement in the North American Free Trade Agreement

This article investigates the impact of trade‐based social clauses on labor rights enforcement. Drawing on insights from recent theoretical work on transnational advocacy networks and labor rights, the study examines how transnational groups and domestic actors engage the labor rights mechanisms under the NAFTA labor side agreement, the NAALC. A statistical analysis of original data drawn from NAALC cases complements interviews with key participants to analyze the factors that predict whether the three national mediation offices review labor dispute petitions. This study suggests that transnational activism is a key factor in explaining petition acceptance. Transnational advocates craft petitions differently from other groups and, by including worker testimony in the petitions, signal to arbitration bodies the possibility of corroborating claims through contact with affected workers.     

The Campesino-to-Campesino agroecology movement of ANAP in Cuba: social process methodology in the construction of sustainable peasant agriculture and food sovereignty

Agroecology has played a key role in helping Cuba survive the crisis caused by the collapse of the socialist bloc in Europe and the tightening of the US trade embargo. Cuban peasants have been able to boost food production without scarce and expensive imported agricultural chemicals by first substituting more ecological inputs for the no longer available imports, and then by making a transition to more agroecologically integrated and diverse farming systems. This was possible not so much because appropriate alternatives were made available, but rather because of the Campesino-a-Campesino (CAC) social process methodology that the National Association of Small Farmers (ANAP) used to build a grassroots agroecology movement. This paper was produced in a 'self-study' process spearheaded by ANAP and La Via Campesina, the international agrarian movement of which ANAP is a member. In it we document and analyze the history of the Campesino-to-Campesino Agroecology Movement (MACAC), and the significantly increased contribution of peasants to national food production in Cuba that was brought about, at least in part, due to this movement. Our key findings are (i) the spread of agroecology was rapid and successful largely due to the social process methodology and social movement dynamics, (ii) farming practices evolved over time and contributed to significantly increased relative and absolute production by the peasant sector, and (iii) those practices resulted in additional benefits including resilience to climate change.     

The Territorial Scope of Employment Legislation and Choice of Law

Traditionally, the determination of the territorial scope of the statutory rights conferred by employment legislation forming part of English law has been regarded as an issue entirely disconnected from the choice‐of‐law process. Indeed, this view formed the basis of the key decision addressing the problem of territoriality, Lawson v Serco, decided by the House of Lords in 2006. After presenting the current state of the law with regard to the territorial scope of employment legislation, this article takes a critical look at Lawson v Serco. It is argued that the ‘European’ choice‐of‐law rules must have a greater importance for determining the territorial scope of employment legislation and, consequently, that the approach pursued in Lawson v Serco is no longer correct, if it ever was, and should not be followed in the future.     

Permanent teeth development in a Spanish sample. Application to dental age estimation

The purpose of this study is to clarify the chronology of different stages of dental development, according to Demirjian, in a sample of Spanish children, which will enable us to build a database that will be used as a reference in regard to the dental development of individuals of our socio-geographic environment. In the same studied sample, a calculation of the dental age according to Demirjian was carried out. This study was conducted in a final sample consisting of 1010 orthopantograms, corresponding to Spanish children (485 boys and 525 girls) ages 2-16. Comparing the age of onset of the different stages among the children, evidence was found that girls had an earlier general development than boys. These differences were only statistically significant in teeth and concrete stages. The canine teeth revealed greater gender dimorphism, with significant differences in all stages compared with the upper canines. The method proposed by Demirjian for dental age calculation resulted in a significant overestimation of dental age in relation to the chronological age in boys (average of 0.87 years) and girls (average of 0.55 years). Data from this study may be used as reference for dental maturity, as well as a standard for estimating age in Spanish children.     

Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

Are there population differences in minutiae frequencies? A comparative study of two Argentinian population samples and one Spanish sample

In recent years, both scientific and judicial sources have highlighted the need for more knowledge about minutiae variability, in order to improve their statistical application to fingerprint identification. In line with this trend toward improving our knowledge of this subject, the aim of the present study was to calculate the frequency with which 20 types of minutiae appeared in 2780 fingerprint impressions obtained from 278 individuals from two Argentinian population samples (100 individuals from Ramal and 178 from Puna-Quebrada). The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually in two areas on the fingerprint, the inside and outside of a circle, the radius of which cut fifteen ridges perpendicularly, starting from the center cut of the axes defining the sectors. The non-equiprobability found in both population samples for the different minutiae types studied demonstrated that the evidential weight provided by these characteristics is not the same when applied in identification processes, whether used quantitatively (numerical standard) or qualitatively (holistic method). The results obtained for both populations were compared statistically with those published previously for a Spanish population sample, which had been collected using the same methodology. This comparison has enabled us to demonstrate, for the first time, the existence of significant differences between populations in minutiae frequencies, independently from the main pattern type.     

大部制改革:期待、沉思与展望——基于对五大部委改革的调研

人们对中国2008年大部制改革充满着诸多期待。基于五大部委的实证调研,可以发现改革取得了明显成效,也发现因缺乏系统性理论研究、整体安排、政策支撑和法制保障以及部门利益作祟、资源割据盛行、平行等差掣肘等造成改革未能实现预期目标。本文认为,下一步完善大部制改革的两个关键是构建科学的大部制和科学地构建大部制。     

Technological intensity in manufacturing trade between ASEAN and the EU: challenges and opportunities

Asia Europe Journal - This article analyses trade flows EU-ASEAN, focusing on export performance and technological intensity, covering the years 2004–2016. The aim of this paper is to analyse...