Community forestry,labor migration and agrarian change in a Nepali village: 1980 to 2010

This paper follows forest conditions, agricultural practices, and livelihoods in a Nepali village between 1980 and 2010. A survey was administered to all village households in 1980, 1990 and 2010; semi-structured interviews were also conducted. Tree species frequency, density and dominance were determined for eight forest patches during each survey. Over this period the population of the village remained stable; the number of children decreased, and the number of people over 50 increased. Famers keep significantly fewer livestock, and have become less dependent on farming and more engaged in commercial activities. In 1980 the number of out-migrants was so few that they were not recorded; by 2010, 29 percent of the adult male population was engaged in migration. Nepal initiated an acclaimed Community Forestry program in the early 1990s; by 2010 about half the village’s forests showed improved tree density and size. Contrary to expectations and published literature, the study found that forest conditions in half of the village’s forests were not improved; and while livelihoods appeared to be better in 2010 than in 1980, they are not more secure as they are increasingly dependent on remittance incomes and hence at the whims of the international labor market.     

The evaluation of five electrophoretic phenotyping systems for routine screening of bloodstains

The performance of the polymorphic marker systems group-specific component (GC), phosphoglucomutase-1 (PGM), alpha-2-HS-glycoprotein (A2HS), haptoglobin (Hp), and erythrocyte acid phosphatase (EAP) was evaluated on control bloodstains. The major factors considered were: sensitivity of the test system; stability of the marker; laboratory economics of each test; and distinguishing power (Dp) of the system. GC was considered to be the most suitable marker for routine screening because of its high stability and Dp, and the sensitivity of the immunoblotting detection method. PGM and A2HS were the next most valuable markers followed by Hp. EAP could only be considered useful when large amounts of relatively fresh bloodstain were available.     

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12–13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.     

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence.     

Saving Strong Neighborhoods From the Destruction of Mortgage Foreclosures: The Impact of Community-Based Efforts in Detroit,Michigan

Mortgage foreclosures hit Detroit, Michigan hard between 2005 and 2014, especially in what we define as strong neighborhoods; there, more than one third of homes experienced foreclosure. Before the crisis hit, these selected tracts had largely intact physical environments and higher owner occupancy, household income and property value than the citywide median. In some of them residents worked intensely to abate the neighborhood effects of mortgage foreclosures. This study examines those efforts’ effectiveness. We selected neighborhoods with the most extensive efforts, as measured, for instance, by creation of community-based plans and applications for grants, and we conducted interviews and field observations to examine those efforts. To assess strengthening of neighborhood housing markets, we applied a modified adjusted interrupted time-series approach to evaluate changes in prices as one measure of neighborhood change. We found that strong resident initiative supported by community development organizations and external assistance led to increased neighborhood housing prices, compared with comparable neighborhoods. However, when initiative, context, and support were weaker, community-based efforts could not prevent considerable decline.     

Rents,knowledge and neo-structuralism: transforming the productive matrix in Ecuador

This paper explores the relationship between ground rent, production and knowledge in Ecuador’s neo-structuralist, state-led project to transform the productive matrix. Based upon insights from the Marxian approach to the critique of political economy, we interrogate how neo-structuralism has conceptualised the relationship between ‘natural resource income’ and ‘knowledge-based’ economic development. The paper argues that a rent-theoretical perspective, which takes seriously the regional unfolding of uneven geographical development in Latin America, can highlight the limits of a national development plan conceived according to the logic of Schumpeterian efficiency. In doing so, the paper identifies the contradictory relationship between natural resource exports, state-led ‘knowledge’-based development and capital accumulation. On this basis the paper offers a historically and empirically informed critical analysis of selective import substitution industrialisation and vanguard science and technology strategies designed to transition Ecuador away from primary resource dependence.     

State–peasant movement relations and the politics of food sovereignty in Mexico and Ecuador

This contribution argues that the articulation between the state and peasant organizations’ internal structures – the class characteristics of their mass bases, their leaderships and the modes of interaction between the two – is critical for determining the nature of contemporary struggles guided by the discourse of food sovereignty. It will show that that counter-hegemonic demands are not synonymous with counter-hegemonic practice; rather than struggling to replace the neoliberal food regime, many peasant organizations employ the food sovereignty discourse as a political tool in their negotiations with the state in order to access resources from within the prevailing neoliberal model, not to transform it.     

Similarities and Differences in Victimization Risk Factors for Nonoffending and Offending Substance Users

In this cross-sectional study of substance users in Norway, the authors describe the patterns of victimization and investigate the factors associated with victimization, for nonoffenders and offenders separately. Recent victimization was reported by 59%, and the victimization rate was higher among offenders compared with nonoffenders (69% and 43%, p < .001). Women, regardless of offender status, experienced more victimization. Unstable housing was associated with victimization among nonoffenders, whereas markers for more severe substance use and indicators for poor mental health were associated with victimization in both groups. Addressing these factors may be important in reducing victimization and its negative outcomes among substance users.     

Elektorale Responsivität als Kriterium zur Beurteilung des deutschen Bundestagswahlrechts

We argue that plurality systems strengthen the accountability of governments towards the electorate while proportional systems lead to a broad representation of voter interests in parliament and coalition governments. We demonstrate these effects in an analysis of all German federal elections from 1949 to 2017 using first-tier votes and directly elected deputies as reflecting the plurality segment and second-tier votes and the seat shares of parties as reflecting the proportional representation segment. We show that the percentages of directly elected deputies react more to differences in perceived party competences (party valences) than the percentages of all party deputies. Electoral system reforms should take into account the effects of both parts of the German electoral system.     

Die „Sonntagsfrage“, soziale Erwünschtheit und die AfD: Wie alternative Messmethoden der Politikwissenschaft weiterhelfen können

In Germany, the standard vote intention survey item has come under attack because it failed to correctly measure the vote share of the German party “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD). We argue that alternative measurement techniques that aim to reduce social desirability bias are better suited for this task. We test three measurement techniques to forecast AfD vote share—a double list experiment, the crosswise-model randomized response technique, and the wisdom of crowds design—and compare their performance to the standard vote intention item. Our results indicate that the wisdom of crowds design is an easily implementable and promising addition to political scientists’ toolbox of survey items.