Political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility: a survey

There is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected, in part, by economic performance, suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage. Simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s, but fell out of fashion with the advent of new-classical economics. However, modern theories of the political business cycle, which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature, assume rational expectations, and lead to forms of political business cycle, driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another. The international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply, although definitive conclusions are – as we might expect – hard to come by.     

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows on Economic Growth in Barbados: An Engle-Granger Approach

The purpose of this article is to look at the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on economic growth in Barbados in the long and short run from 1979 to 2008 with the use of the Engle-Granger two-step procedure. The study shows that in the long run, a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows will expand economic growth by 0.10 percent while in the short run, the relationship between FDI and economic growth will be positive but almost flat. These results imply that any policy by Government aimed at boosting economic growth using FDI inflows will have to be considered for the long run since Government could not rely on FDI inflows in the short run.     

Terrorism as Cancer: How to Combat an Incurable Disease

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an alternative framework that conceptualizes the threat posed by terrorism based on an epidemiological approach that views it as a chronic disease like cancer rather than as a military, ideological, or socio-economic problem. After highlighting the similarities in the causes, behavior, treatments, and challenges of combating terrorism and cancer, this paper presents a staging system policymakers can use to educate the public and allocate counterterrorism resources more efficiently. This approach encourages policymakers to see terrorism for what it is (an all but inevitable facet of modern life that can be managed but never fully eliminated), and not what they wish terrorism to be (a national security problem that can be solved, defeated, or vanquished). It provides policymakers with a useful model to conceptualize the threat and treat terrorism in a comprehensive manner, from preventing future attacks to effectively responding to them when they will inevitably occur.     

What do NHS staff learn from training on the Mental Capacity Act (2005)?

Purpose. Many studies have reported that professionals have a limited understanding of mental capacity issues. Implementation (in England and Wales) of the Mental Capacity Act (MCA) (2005) presents a challenge to services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent to which National Health Service (NHS) staff benefited from attending MCA training courses. Methods. Participants were assessed before and after MCA training using a structured interview, which included three scenarios describing mental capacity dilemmas, four vignettes addressing the role of the Independent Mental Capacity Advocate (IMCA), and 16 true–false items. Results. Interview performance improved post‐training, but this could be largely ascribed to an increased awareness of mental capacity issues, with minimal improvements in the knowledge that would be needed to undertake the assessments. Nine areas were identified where there remained significant gaps in participants’ knowledge post‐training. Participants with experience of dealing with mental capacity issues performed better than those without. Conclusions. The results suggest that methods other than formal training events may be needed to prepare health staff to implement new legislation.     

A modified Stroop task with sexual offenders: Replication of a study

Abstract

Cognitive–behavioural treatment of sexual offenders assumes that sexual offenders are motivated by deviant attitudes, perceptions and values. Although aspects of deviant schema can be assessed by questionnaires, self-report measures are limited by the respondent's willingness to be forthright and by the fact that, typically, these cognitive processes occur quickly, revealing signs of automaticity. Recent research by Smith and Waterman has suggested that the deviant schema of sexual offenders could be assessed using a version of the Stroop colour-naming task. Long latency periods to sexual colour words imply a longer information-processing route and evidence of pre-established (deviant) sexual cognitive schema. Stroop techniques may offer the advantage of eliminating limitations that arise when using self-report techniques, such as fakeability and social desirability concerns. The current study replicates and extends Smith and Waterman's results using samples of sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and non-violent offenders. The cumulative results of the two studies suggests that Stroop techniques have promise, but that further work is required before measures are available that have sufficient reliability and validity to be used in applied contexts.     

Laying the foundation for institutionalisation of democratic parliaments in the newly independent states: The case of Ukraine

This article examines the institutionalisation of the Ukrainian Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, since the fall of the Soviet Union. The emergence of a popularly elected legislature in post‐Soviet Ukraine stands as a cornerstone in the development of a democratic regime. While the Verkhovna Rada is by no means a mature parliament, the foundation for future institutionalisation has been laid through the establishment of a representative political process, nascent political parties, a separation of powers between the executive and the legislature, and the policy‐making capacity of the Parliament.     

When an Alibi Is Not Enough: Judgments of Evidence Needed to Lay Charges in a Burglary Case

Laypersons were asked to assume the role of investigators to explore judgments of what evidence is needed to make an arrest in a criminal investigation when an alibi witness is present. Participants were sensitive to the relationship between the alibi witness and the suspect and were more likely to believe an alibi provided by someone unrelated to the suspect, as evidenced by requests for more physical evidence against the suspect than when the alibi corroborator was a family member. In addition, when presented with contradictory evidence, the age of the alibi witness became an important consideration. Age alone did not impact perceptions of evidence adequacy; however, when an (adult) eyewitness provided testimony that contradicted a child alibi witness, participants demonstrated partiality towards believing the child as evidenced by (a) more requests for physical evidence to be convinced the child was wrong and to arrest the suspect and (b) higher ratings of alibi witness credibility. This effect was not seen when the eyewitness’s testimony contradicted an alibi provided by an adult. The results provide insight for investigators and legal counsel regarding the influence of varying types of alibi witness evidence.