Field validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders

Structured risk assessment has become a part of routine practice in forensic settings. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of existing tools. The present research focused on the performance of the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) – one of the most commonly used tools for structured professional judgment – in the daily practice of three medium security units in Flanders. Areas under the curve for the prediction of violent recidivism during (N?=?168) and after (N?=?105) medium security treatment were non-significant. In addition, analyses showed that the HCR-20 was mainly of interest in identifying low-risk individuals. Further research measuring different aspects of predictive validity in applied settings is recommended.     

Violence risk profile of medium- and high-security NGRI offenders in Belgium

Under Belgian law, offenders not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI) are committed by the courts to forensic mental health treatment. The use of violence risk assessment tools has become routine in these settings. However, there are no national statistics regarding violence risk assessment in the Belgian forensic population. A study was undertaken to collect risk assessment data (PCL-R, VRAG, HCR-20) on a large cohort of forensic patients committed to Medium Security units in the Flanders region and in High-Security units in the Walloon region. Flemish patients were expected to present a lower risk compared with their Walloon counterparts. Instead, data yielded by a structured risk assessment method demonstrate the opposite. Moreover, the majority of patients in Flemish facilities had committed violent offenses and were institutionalized for shorter periods whereas the majority of Walloon patients had committed sexual offenses and were institutionalized for markedly longer periods.     

Building community capacity for violence prevention

The capacity of communities to prevent violence is examined from three perspectives: youth violence, child maltreatment, and intimate partner violence. The analysis suggests that community social control and collective efficacy are significant protective factors for all three types of violence, but these need to be further distinguished for their relationships to private, parochial, and state controls. It is argued that strong interpersonal ties are not the only contributor to collective efficacy and violence prevention. Weak ties, including those outside the community, and organizational ties are also seen as necessary. Violence prevention programs should be structured in ways that contribute to the communities' own capacity to prevent violence.     

Twelve tongues, one voice: An evaluation of European political cooperation

Abstract. Traditional integration theories disagree over the scope of the main foreign policy instrument of the European Union (EU), the so-called European Political Cooperation (EPC). While intergovernmentalism suggests that EPC actions are weak, neofunctionalism maintains that cooperation within the EPC framework is characterised by strong measures. In this article, we present a game-theoretic and statistical analysis of these conflicting propositions and show that European foreign policy making is much more diversified than predicted by the predominating theoretical approaches. A signalling game demonstrates that the exploitation of uncertainty by a possible profit-seeker outside the organisation can cause inadequate EPC decisions. The formal model also explores the extent to which joint interest in closer foreign policy coordination can help to overcome diverging national policy preferences. The empirical test of some game-theoretic hypotheses shows that European foreign policy making has become more intensive. The increasing number of declarations is, however, also a sign of the proliferation of non-committing statements. Logit regressions reveal a close relationship between the economic salience of an EPC target nation to the European Union and the intensity of an EPC reaction.     

Autonomous Policy Leadership: Steering a Policy Process in the Direction of a Policy Quest

This article attempts to make a contribution to the literature which reflects a growing interest in the conditions underlying radical policy reform. It advances a concept of autonomous policy leaders who can be distinguished from vote-buying politicians by their passionate commitment to "make a difference" by advancing a particular policy quest, with particular reference being made to the way such leadership was exercised by Roger Douglas, New Zealand Minister of Finance from 1984 to 1989. Although such leaders resemble the "policy entrepreneurs" described in "garbage can" models, their goals are more ambitious and the window of opportunity they are waiting for (with its characteristic mix of crisis, mandate, honeymoon and weakened opposition) much greater. They are also dependent on, and emerge from with, an advocacy coalition network which provides them with the backing and resources to redirect public policy. This redirection may produce a backlash from groups concerned that these policy elites may steer the policy process too far in a particular direction.