Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers’ Guide

The use of instrumental variables regression in political science has evolved from an obscure technique to a staple of the political science tool kit. Yet the surge of interest in the instrumental variables method has led to implementation of uneven quality. After providing a brief overview of the method and the assumptions on which it rests, we chart the ways in which these assumptions are invoked in practice in political science. We review more than 100 articles published in the American Journal of Political Science, the American Political Science Review, and World Politics over a 24‐year span. We discuss in detail two noteworthy applications of instrumental variables regression, calling attention to the statistical assumptions that each invokes. The concluding section proposes reporting standards and provides a checklist for readers to consider as they evaluate applications of this method.     

President Roosevelt,Admiral Stark,and the Unsent Warning to Pearl Harbor: A Research Note

Admiral Harold R. Stark (1880–1972) was appointed Chief of Naval Operations in August 1939 and served in that role until removed in March 1942. It was on his watch that the Japanese raided Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941. Nowadays the prevailing view of Stark seems to be largely shaped by the official verdict of the Secretary of the Navy, James V. Forrestal, namely that “Admiral Harold R. Stark, USN (Retired), shall not hold any position in the United States Navy which requires the exercise of superior judgment”. Our very different view is that Stark was a patriot who willingly sacrificed his reputation to preserve that of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and to enable him, as the one person capable of leading the Allies to victory in war against Nazi Germany, to assume his proper mantle.     

Detecting Spillover Effects: Design and Analysis of Multilevel Experiments

Interpersonal communication presents a methodological challenge and a research opportunity for researchers involved in field experiments. The challenge is that communication among subjects blurs the line between treatment and control conditions. When treatment effects are transmitted from subject to subject, the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) is violated, and comparison of treatment and control outcomes may provide a biased assessment of the treatment’s causal influence. Social scientists are increasingly interested in the substantive phenomena that lead to SUTVA violations, such as communication in advance of an election. Experimental designs that gauge SUTVA violations provide useful insights into the extent and influence of interpersonal communication. This article illustrates the value of one such design, a multilevel experiment in which treatments are randomly assigned to individuals and varying proportions of their neighbors. After describing the theoretical and statistical underpinnings of this design, we apply it to a large‐scale voter‐mobilization experiment conducted in Chicago during a special election in 2009 using social‐pressure mailings that highlight individual electoral participation. We find some evidence of within‐household spillovers but no evidence of spillovers across households. We conclude by discussing how multilevel designs might be employed in other substantive domains, such as the study of deterrence and policy diffusion.     

Evidence of arteriosclerosis in cremated remains.

Severely burned or cremated human remains (i.e., cremains) are among the most challenging cases investigated by forensic pathologists, odontologists, and anthropologists. Exposure to extreme heat of long duration destroys all organic components of the body, leaving only the inorganic component of the skeleton. The numerous calcined osseous or dental fragments that remain after the cremation process rarely convey useful information to the investigator. In most cases, it is associated nonosseous artifacts that provide evidence of the decedent's identity. In a case investigated at the University of Florida's C. A. Pound Human Identification Laboratory, as well as in several cases examined during data collection for a research project, several fragments were identified as calcined plaque tubules from sclerotic blood vessels. These tubules provide direct evidence that the cremated individual had a variety of arteriosclerosis.     

Prudent constitutionalism: hamiltonian lessons for a responsible public administration

Alexander Hamilton's career provides much insight about responsible public administration. This article emphasizes his linking of character and competence in public administration to our American constitutional form and values. His “prudent constitutionalism” yielded a normative theory of action that remains relevant though largely unexamined.     

Maternal employment and adolescent sexual behavior

This study investigated whether maternal employment would be associated with teenage sexual attitudes and behaviors likely to increase the probability of teenage pregnancy. Female subjects whose mothers were employed outside the home during the high school years (a) had a greater tendency to begin sexual relations before age 19, (b) expressed less concern regarding the risk of unintended pregnancy, and (c) scored lower on an objective test of their practical knowledge about contraception.Received Ph.D. in social psychology from the University of Washington. Research interests include personality and environmental influences on adjustment.Received Ph.D. from University of Georgia. Current research interests are in behavioral teratology.Received Ph.D. from Oklahoma State University. Research interests are in loneliness and adjustment.Received Ph.D. from North Carolina State University. Research interests are in population and urban sociology.     

Methadone maintenance programs--a two-edged sword?

Retrospective review was undertaken of all autopsies in which methadone was detected at the Forensic Science Centre, South Australia, during a 3-year period from July 1996 to June 1999. Thirty-five cases were found in which methadone had either caused or contributed to death (age range = 14-54 years; average = 31 years; M:F = 3.4:1). Ten victims were participating in a methadone maintenance program, of whom four died within a week of enrollment. Eight victims (23%) not enrolled in a methadone maintenance program were found who had died after the use of "diverted" methadone (i.e., prescribed for someone else) (age range = 14-34 years; average = 25 years; M:F = 6:2). Deaths were directly attributable to methadone toxicity in seven of the eight cases, with additional drugs or alcohol being found in seven cases. Prevention of ongoing deaths caused by methadone diversion could be achieved by allowing only daily releases of methadone, with the addict having to consume the drug under close supervision.