Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Understanding research methods,limitations, and applications of drug data collected by the National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS-Drug)

The National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) is a drug surveillance program of the US Drug Enforcement Administration that systematically collects data on drugs that are seized by law enforcement and submitted to and analyzed by the Nation's forensic laboratories (NFLIS-Drug). NFLIS-Drug data are increasingly used in predictive modeling and drug surveillance to examine drug availability patterns. Given the complexity of the data and data collection, there are some common methodological pitfalls that we highlight with the aim of helping researchers avoid these concerns. The analysis done for this Technical Note is based on a review of the scientific literature that includes 428 unique, refereed article citations in 182 distinct journals published between January 1, 2005, and April 30, 2021. Each article was analyzed according to how NFLIS-Drug data were mentioned and whether NFLIS-Drug data were included. A sample of 37 articles was studied in-depth, and data issues were summarized. Using examples from the literature, this Technical Note highlights eight broad concerns that have important implications for the proper applications, interpretations, and limitations of NFLIS-Drug data with suggestions for improving research methods and accurate reporting of forensic drug data. NFLIS-Drug data are timely and provide key information to inform drug use trends across the United States; however, our present analysis shows that NFLIS-Drug data are misunderstood and represented in the literature. In addition to highlighting these issues, DEA has created several resources to assist NFLIS data users and researchers, which are summarized in the discussion.     

Turkish economic development: The first five year plan, 1963–67

This article evaluates the effectiveness of Turkey's First Five Year Development Plan (1963–67) in achieving both its domestic and its international objectives.

A target of 7 per cent for the G.N.P. growth rate was nearly achieved, but individual sectors diverged from the plan. Agricultural and manufacturing output increased only about three‐quarters as fast as planned, while the construction and service industries exceeded the planned rate. In agriculture, neither new investment nor, more important, the dissemination of new techniques proceeded as rapidly as expected. Insufficient amounts of well‐organized investment projects, foreign exchange, and domestic savings (especially in the public sector) impeded the full achievement of the desired manufacturing capacity. In addition to failing to raise public revenue as much as planned, the principal shortcomings in policy formulation and execution were an overvalued currency which necessitated exchange controls and distorted the allocation of resources, the continued reliance on price regulation, and the failure to reform adequately the State Economic Enterprises. Reliance on foreign aid was reduced, but more aid will still be required before sustained growth is achieved.

In spite of these shortcomings, substantial progress was accomplished during the First Plan without the inflationary pressures and other imbalances which characterized the 1950s. However, Turkey could be developed more rapidly if more appropriate policies were followed.     

Autopsy Reenactment – A Useful Technique in the Evaluation of Adhesive Tape Asphyxia

A 19‐year‐old woman was found dead with her face and head wrapped in plastic adhesive tape in a cupboard beside an opened helium cylinder. Despite the alleged presence of a suicide message on a social networking website, the unusual circumstances raised the possibility at the time of autopsy of either accidental death from sexual asphyxia or homicide. A carefully monitored reenactment demonstrated, however, that the type of commercial adhesive tape that had been used did not cause complete airway obstruction and that it was possible to wrap a considerable length of tape around the head and neck with the breath held. All of the features at autopsy were, therefore, compatible with self‐infliction. Asphyxial death was attributed to the combined effects of smothering from tape and anoxia from helium, an extremely rare combination in young females.     

在后现代主义中建构犯罪学理论

现代犯罪学留给我们至少11种互不融合的理论结构,但它们的要塞基础随着现代社会理论的消亡而土崩瓦解。在后现代社会里,能否建构起一种一般性的犯罪学理论或融合不同的犯罪学理论?怀疑不是绝望的理由,而是意识到需要采取创造性行动的证据。     

Faces of Federalism: From Bullinger to Jefferson

This study argues that the eighteenth-century political philosophyof federalism found its roots in covenant theology of earlyReformed Protestantism in Zurich. It contends that there wasa progression covenant or federal thought from the first publishedarticulation of the theological covenant by Bullinger in 1534,through the use of the covenant notion in defense of tyrannicideby Philippe Mornay, to Johannes Althusius's political philosophyof federalism, as well as the political theories Thomas Hobbesand John Locke, to the Declaration of Independence and the Constitutionof the United States. These different faces or variations offederalism shared several common elements over the 250-yearspan.     

Emerging Organized Crime in Chicago

Organized crime is now international in scope and unrestricted by geographical borders. Better organized, more sophisticated, and using high-tech equipment the criminals have developed connections with so-called 'traditional organized crime'. This paper examines in detail the wave of organized criminal activity which has developed in Chicago and has now become entrenched through alliances with existing criminal groups.