Estimating the size of criminal populations

The estimation of total population size for various phenomena of crime is an important factor critical for criminal justice policy formulation and criminological theory development. In this paper, methods are discussed for estimating the size of a criminal population from police records. Capture-recapture analysis techniques, borrowed from the biological sciences, are used to predict the size of population for migrating (or fleeing) fugitives and for street prostitutes. Heterogeneity and behavioral responses to previous police encounters are identified as major complicating factors. The basic problem is that the police records are virtually unaffected by a potentially large pool of cryptic criminals. It is shown how independently collected auxiliary data can address this problem.     

North Korea’s perspective on the U.S.-North Korea peace treaty

Kim Byong Hong is deputy director of the Institute for Disarmament and Peace, Pyongyang, DPRK. This paper was presented at a conference in Pyongyang in fall 1994.     

A multilevel analysis of fertility behavior in Korea

This analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility behavior in Korea develops a model that simultaneously considers both individual and community-level differences. The model includes 3 fertility process components: onset, early fertility, and later fertility, which are defined by reference to maternal age. The analysis traced the effects of respondents' education and childhood residence through their intermediate consequences for work experience before and after marriage, husbands' education and occupation, current residence, childhood mortality, and sex composition of offspring. The data were derived from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey. The results of this analysis indicate that socioeconomic development results in increased age at 1st birth and reduced number of children. Socioeconomic development is accompanied by desires for smaller family size, creating the conditions for fertility decline even in the absence of a national family planning program. The results for early fertility supported the hypothesis that there would be no effect of employment in the modern sector before marriage on fertility before age 30 years in traditional contexts, but a positive effect in transitional contexts. Aside from age at 1st birth, none of the micro coefficients were statistically significant in explaining the early fertility model. For later fertility, the relationships between micro and social context variables were negative, as hypothesized, but dampening effects of development due to family planning were not detected. Childhood residence played a small role in explaining fertility measures, but women's education did not work either additively or interactively.     

Government partisanship in Western democracies, 1945–1998

Abstract. In this article, we put forward a continuous measure of government partisanship, which allows meaningful comparisons across countries and across time, for 17 Western democracies for the period of 1945 through 1998. Our measure is predicated upon a manifesto-based measure of party ideology recently developed by Kim and Fording (1998), along with yearly cabinet post data. After discussing the validity of our measure, we replicate one of the most cited works in comparative political economy over the last ten years – Alvarez, Garrett and Lange's (1991) analysis of economic performance – by utilizing our own measure of government partisanship. We conclude that comparativists need to exercise greater caution in interpreting and evaluating the past findings of a large number of multivariate studies in comparative politics.     

South Korea: Searching for a New Direction of Administrative Reform

Government has never been under greater stress all around the world. Fundamental change is occurring at all levels of government. The need to cope with the rapid globalisation of the economy, the so-called borderless economy, and to maintain international competitiveness drives public management reforms. Governments must perform at higher levels of quality and productivity than ever before. The Gore Report, for example, constitutes a major attack on the bureaucratic management paradigm in the United States and its values of entrepreneurial managerialism dominate administrative practices around the world for the time being. This article first identifies a new management paradigm. Then it explores some international experiences with administrative reform in a comparative perspective to suggest a new direction of administrative reform for the future in South Korea.     

The political process of decentralization in Peru, 1985–1990

This paper, using Peru as a case study, argues that the most potent factor in the implementation of decentralization in developing countries is ‘political’ in nature and operation. The legislative process of decentralization under President Alan García's regime went through three major steps, controlled by his party, APRA (Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana,): (1) The 1986 Bill of the Basic Law of Regionalization; (2) The 1987 Basic Law of Regionalization; and (3) The 1988 Modified Law of Regionalization. Why did Alan García push for decentralization, unlike his predecessors? The 1985 elections produced García, a populist demagogue, and a loose political party system dominated by APRA. However, the legislation of decentralization was possible paradoxically because García, who was desperately looking for a political issue to distract people's minds from his misgovernment, needed to control APRA for a regional power base after 1990. Thus, the whole decentralization process was highly politicized, and García's strategy was ‘successful’ in that regional governments came to be controlled by APRA after the 1989 and 1990 regional elections. The Peruvian case shows how far decentralization can be used for personalistic or partisan interests in a fragile democracy.     

Yellow sea economic zone: Vision or reality?

This article provides a brief review of Sino-South Korean economic relations in the 1980s, and discusses domestic and international factors that are likely to influence economic relations between the two countries in the 1990s. Two possible scenarios are discussed for future Sino-South Korean economic relations: increasing trade and economic interaction within limited political relations; active economic cooperation across the Yellow Sea with normalized relations. Anticipating expanding economic ties between China and South Korea, the article discusses potential areas for cooperation such as trade and industrial relations, tourism and services, infrastructure development and transportation linkages, and institutional support.