德国应对世界经济危机的措施

本文全面分析了德国政府迄今采取的应对当前经济危机的各项举措,包括金融市场稳定措施和两套经济振兴计划。与此同时,本文也简要介绍了欧盟层面的经济振兴计划。作者最后指出,德国所采取的应对危机的经济政策措施带有明显的凯恩斯主义的赤字开支政策的特征,并提出忠告,要避免重蹈六、七十年代凯恩斯主义经济政策的覆辙。     

STR位点D19S253和D8S1179的法医学意义及应用研究

为评估STR位点D19S253和D8S1179的法医学应用价值，应用PCR和PAG垂直电泳技术对两位点的种属特异性，检测灵敏度，以及同一个体不同组织分型的同一性及不同基质和不同保存时间的斑痕分型等与法医应用有关的问题进行了研究，D19S253和D8S1179位点的检测灵敏度分别为0．25ng及0．5ng，同时两位点具有较高的种属特异性，同一性及较好重复性，且能够复合扩增，表明D19S253和D8S1179是法医学检案中较实用的两个STR标记。     

A. Reviews: general

i. The Arab Economy: Past Performance and Future Prospects. by Yusif A.Sayigh. Oxford University Press, 1982. pp. 175.

ii. The Arab Predicament: Arab Politics and Practice since 1967. By Fouad Ajami. Cambridge University Press, 1982. pp. 220. £4.95 (paperback of hardback edn., 1981).

iii. The Arabic Documents in the Archives of the British Political Agency Kuwait, 1904–1949 (IOR: R/15/5) ([ British Academy]Oriental Documents V). By Julia Ashtiany. London, India Office Library and Records (published under the auspices of the British Academy Oriental Documents Committee), 1982. pp.xxxi, 373, P1.4.

iv. Traditional Crafts of Saudi Arabia. By John Topham and others. London, Stacey International Publishers, 1982. pp.192, 275 illustrations (colour), 6 (black and white), 2 maps. £22.50.

v. Yemen: Political History, Social Structure and Legal System. By Isam Ghanem. London, Arthur Probsthain, pp.26. £4.00.

vi. Sidi Ameur: a Tunisian Village. By Nadia Abu Zahra. London, Ithaca Press, 1982. pp.238, 2 tables, 3 maps, 4 diagrams, 7 appendices. £11.50.

vii. Tchad/Lybie: La querelle des frontières. By Bernard Lanne. Paris, Editions Karthala, 1982. pp.251, 2 maps. FF 68.

viii. Women in Islam: Tradition and Transition in the Middle East. By Naila Minai. London, John Murray, 1981. pp.283. £8.95.

ix. Faith and Power: The Politics of Islam. By Edward Mortimer. London, Faber and Faber, 1982. pp.431. £10.50 (paperback £5.95).

xi. Pan‐Turkism in Turkey: A Study of Irredentism. By Jacob M.Landau. London, C.Hurst & Co., 1981. pp.219. £11.50.

xii. The Modernization of Turkey: From Atatürk to the Present Day. By Walter F. Weiker. New York & London, Holmes and Meier, 1981. pp.303.     

A: Reviews: general

BYZANTIUM AND THE EARLY ISLAMIC CONQUESTS. By WALTER E. KAEGI. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. xiii, 313pp. 5 maps, 2 pp. of plates. £45.00 (hb).

STUDIES IN EARLY MUSLIM JURISPRUDENCE. By NORMAN CALDER. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1993. xiv, 257pp. £35.00.

GOLDEN ROADS: MIGRATION, PILGRIMAGE AND TRAVEL IN MEDIAEVAL AND MODERN ISLAM. Edited by IAN RICHARD NETTON. Richmond (Surrey), Curzon Press, 1993. xvii, 193pp. £35 (hb), £16.99 (pb).

SULEIMAN THE MAGNIFICENT: THE MAN, HIS LIFE, HIS EPOCH. By ANDRE CLOT [trans. from the French]. London, Saqi Books, 1992. viii, 399pp.

POPULAR CULTURE IN MEDIEVAL EGYPT. By BOAZ SHOSHAN. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993. 148pp. $49.95.

HOLYMEN OF THE BLUE NILE: THE MAKING OF AN ARAB‐ISLAMIC COMMUNITY IN THE NILOTIC SUDAN, 1500–1850. By NEIL MCHUGH. (Northwestern University Press Series in Islam and Society in Africa.) Evanston, Illinois, Northwestern University Press, 1994. xii, 280pp. 3 maps.

OTTOMAN MANUFACTURING IN THE AGE OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. By DONALD QUATAERT. (Cambridge Middle East Library 30.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993. xvii, 224pp. 5 maps, 5 illustrations. £35.

ESTRANGED BEDFELLOWS: BRITAIN AND FRANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST DURING THE SECOND WORLD WAR. By AVIEL ROSHWALD. (Studies in Middle Eastern History.) New York and Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990. 315pp. Index.

ELUSIVE DEVELOPMENT: FROM DEPENDENCE TO SELF‐RELIANCE IN THE ARAB WORLD. By YUSIF SAYIGH. London, Routledge, 1991. xi, 270pp. £40.

THE MIDDLE EAST AND PROBLEMS OF DEMOCRACY. By HEATHER DEEGAN. Philadelphia, Open University Press, 1993. 135pp. Notes, bibliography, index.

THE MIDDLE EAST AND EUROPE: AN INTEGRATED COMMUNITIES APPROACH. Edited by GERD NONNEMAN. Federal Trust for Education and Research, 1992. 305pp. £30.

STEPPES D'ARABIES. ETATS, PASTEURS, AGRICULTEURS ET COMMERÇANTS: LE DEVENIR DES ZONES SECHES. Edited by RICCARDO BOCCO, RONALD JAUBERT and FRANÇOISE METRAL. Paris, Presses Universitaires de France; Geneva, Cahiers de l'I.U.E.D., 1993. 401pp. n.p.

OIL MONARCHIES: DOMESTIC AND SECURITY CHALLENGES IN THE ARAB GULF STATES. By F. GREGORY GAUSE III. New York, Council on Foreign Relations Inc. xii, 237pp. Map, tables. $16.95 (pb).

SAUDI ARABIA: GOVERNMENT, SOCIETY AND THE GULF CRISIS. By MORDECHAI ABIR. London, Routledge, 1993. xvi, 269pp. £40 (hb).

KUWAIT AND IRAQ: HISTORICAL CLAIMS AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES. By RICHARD SCHOFIELD. London, Middle East Programme, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2nd edition, 1993. xv, 207pp. Maps, index. £15.00 (pb).

TERRITORIAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE GULF STATES. Edited by RICHARD SCHOFIELD. London, UCL Press, 1994. (SOAS/GRC Geopolitics Series, 1). xi, 256pp. Maps, index.

KING ABDUL‐AZIZ AND THE KUWAIT CONFERENCE 1923–1924. By MOUDI M. ABDUL‐AZIZ. Translated from Arabic by Basil Hatim with Ron Buckley. London, Echoes, 1993. 169pp. Notes, bibliography, index.

KUWAIT: FALL AND REBIRTH. By MOHAMMED ABDULRAHMAN AL‐YAHYA. London, Kegan Paul International, 1993. x, 130pp. £35.

CONTEMPORARY SYRIA: LIBERALIZATION BETWEEN COLD WAR AND COLD PEACE. Edited by EBERHARD KIENLE. London, British Academic Press in association with the Centre for Near and Middle Eastern Studies, SOAS, 1994. 187pp.

COEXISTENCE IN WARTIME LEBANON: DECLINE OF A STATE AND RISE OF A NATION. By THEODOR HANF. London: Centre for Lebanese Studies in association with I.B. Tauris, 1993. 646pp.

JUDAISM AND MODERNIZATION ON THE RELIGIOUS KIBBUTZ. By ARYEI FISHMAN. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 202pp. £32.50.

THE NEGEV BEDOUIN AND LIVESTOCK REARING: SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS. By AREF ABU‐RABIA. (Mediterranean Series.) Oxford, Berg Publishers, 1994. 139pp. illustrations, maps, charts, index. £29.95.

THE KURDS OF IRAQ: TRAGEDY AND HOPE. By MICHAEL M. GUNTER. New York, St Martin's Press, 1992. 175pp. Map. £29.95.

Alavi, Hamza, ‘India and the Colonial Mode of Production’, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.X, Nos.33–35, August 1975.

Althusser, L. and Balibar, E. Reading Capital. London, New Left Review, 1970.

Foran, John, ‘The Modes of Production Approach to Seventeenth‐century Iran’, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol.20, No.3, August 1988.

Foster‐Carter, Aidan, ‘The Modes of Production Controversy’, New Left Review, 107, February 1978.

Hindess, B. and Hirst, P., Mode of Production and Social Formation, London, Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1977.

Mahdi, Ali‐Akbar, ‘The Iranian Social Formation: Pre‐Capitalism, Dependent Capitalism and the World System’, PhD dissertation. Department of Sociology, Michigan State University, 1983.

Weber, Max, The Methodology of Social Sciences (E.A. Shills and H.A. Finch, eds.). New York: The Free Press, 1949.

IRAN AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. Edited by ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI and MANSHOUR VARASTEH. London, Routledge, 1991. 191pp. $35.00.

NOMAD: A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF A QASHQA'I TRIBESMAN IN IRAN. By LOIS BECK. Berkeley and Los Angeles, University of California Press, 1991. 489pp. 4 maps, 43 photographs, 9 tables.

THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN CYPRUS. Edited by C.H. DODD. Hemingford Grey, Eothen Press, 1993. 382pp. £24.95 (pb).

ANTI‐CHRISTIAN POLEMIC IN EARLY ISLAM. ABU ‘ISA AL‐WARRAQ'S ‘AGAINST THE TRINITY’. Edited and translated by DAVID THOMAS. (University of Cambridge Oriental Publications, 45.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. ix, 218pp.

EARLY PHILOSOPHICAL SHIISM: THE ISMAILI NEOPLATONISM OF ABU YA'QUB AL‐SIJISTANI. By PAUL E. WALKER. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993. 203pp. £30.

THE SHI'IS OF IRAQ. By YITZHAK NAKASH. Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, 1994. 312pp. £25.

MAHMUD SHALTUT AND ISLAMIC MODERNISM. By KATE ZEBIRI. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1993. viii, 200pp. £27.50.

ISLAM, ECONOMICS AND SOCIETY. By SYED NAWAB HAIDER NAQVI. London, Kegan Paul International, 1994. xxv, 176pp. £35.00.

RELIGION IN THIRD WORLD POLITICS. By JEFF HAYNES. Buckingham, Open University Press, 1993. x, 166pp. £12.99 (pb); £37.50 (hb).

A SYNTAX OF SAN'ANI ARABIC. By JANET C.E. WATSON. (Semitica Viva, 13.) Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1993. xxii, 454pp.; DM 148.

AN INTRODUCTION TO PERSIAN. By W.M. THACKSTON. Revised Third Edition. Bethesda, Maryland, Iranbooks, 1993. 287pp. $25.00.

MIDDLE EASTERN LIVES: THE PRACTICE OF BIOGRAPHY AND SELF‐NARRATIVE. Edited by MARTIN KRAMER. Syracuse, Syracuse University Press, 1991. viii, 167pp. $19.95 (hb).

HAGIA SOPHIA FROM THE AGE OF JUSTINIAN TO THE PRESENT. Edited by ROBERT MARK and AHMET ?. ÇAKMAK. Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 255pp. Numerous illustrations.

THE ARMS AND ARMOUR OF ARABIA. By ROBERT ELGOOD. Aldershot, Scolar Press, 1994. ix, 138pp. £75.00.     

慢性阿片依赖者外周血单个核细胞白介素-2的免疫组织化学研究

探讨长期使用阿片类毒品对人体外周血单个核细胞IL 2蛋白表达的影响。以 2 1例阿片依赖者及 16例正常健康人为研究对象 ,用免疫组化SABC法、DAB染色 ,检测IL 2蛋白表达。 2 1例慢性阿片依赖者PBMCDAB染色细胞阳性率明显低于 16例正常健康人 ,二者具有显著差异 (P <0 0 1)。慢性阿片依赖者PBMCIL 2蛋白合成减少 ,由此使IL 2产生减少 ,这对吸毒者的免疫功能改变有重要作用。     

中国成都汉族及泰国群体D7S2846基因座的遗传多态性

研究STR基因座D7S2 846的遗传多态性 ,为法科学应用提供基础数据。应用PCR及PAG电泳技术 ,对376名中国成都汉族无关个体及 131名泰国无关个体进行了调查。两群体分别检出 8个和 7个等位基因 ,首次获得该基因座基因在两群体中的频率分布。两群体基因型频率分布均符合Hardy Weinberg平衡。家系调查证实了等位基因的传递遵循孟德尔遗传规律。该基因座在两群体中的个人识别能力 (Dp)分别为 0 85 70、 0 86 0 2 ,杂合度 (H )分别为0 6 915、 0 6 870 ,多态性信息含量 (PIC)分别为 0 6 445、 0 6 5 5 3 ,非父排除率 (PE )分别为 0 415 2、 0 40 85。D7S2 846基因座在法医学个人识别及亲子鉴定中具有较高的实用价值。     

Exchange rate policy modeling and forecasting the exchange rate: Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar

The exchange rate is a very important key financial variable that affects decisions made by the foreign exchange investors, exporters, importers, bankers, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers, and tourists in the developed as well as the developing world. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the value of international investment portfolios, competitiveness of exports and imports, value of international reserves, currency value of debt payments, and the cost of tourists. Movements in exchange rates thus have very important implications for any country's economy's business cycle, trade, and capital flows and are therefore crucial for understanding financial developments and changes in economic policy. The study will be looking at the various aspects of country's economic policy with respect to the exchange rate and modeling and forecasting the exchange rate. The study will be analyzing India's exchange rate story and will be discussing the structure of the foreign exchange market in India in terms of participants, instruments, and trading platform as also a turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market and forward premia. The study will be attempting to develop a model for the rupee–dollar exchange rate taking into account variables from monetary and microstructure models as well as other variables including intervention by the central bank. The main focus will be on the exchange rate of the Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, that is, the Re/$ rate. The data will be covering from January 1990 through April 2013. This study will be examining the forecasting performance of the monetary model and various extensions of it in the vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive framework.     

Emerging powers,soft power,and future of regional cooperation in South Asia

This article looks into the future of regional cooperation in South Asia in the light of two emerging powers: China and India focussing on how their rise would change the relationship in the region. The paper argues that China and India both are trying to enhance their spheres of influence forcing the states in the region to align with either of them in a binary framework of unstable equilibrium and uneasy coexistence rather than reinforcing the regional solidarity of SAARC. Such a competition between China and India and the putative interventionary efforts of Western powers and their agencies in the region are bound to bring implications of profound value for not just regional cooperation but for the individual destinies of the various states involved in the days ahead.