Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

That’s Why the Lady Lost to the Trump: Demographics and the 2016 Presidential Election

I examine the relationship between demographics and vote choice using pre-election tracking polls, exit polls, and data on the American states. A number of important findings emerge: (1) there was a fair amount of preference stability in 2016; (2) Clinton underperformed Obama in 83% of demographic groups examined; (3) at the state level, the percent of whites with low levels of education and the size of the rural population had important effects on vote choice, and both of those variables were more strongly correlated with Democratic vote share in 2016 than in 2012; and (4) while state turnout rates were moderately correlated with Clinton’s vote share, changes in state turnout rates from 2012 to 2016 did not have a substantial impact on Clinton’s performance.     

Court turns a DEF ear to opponent's entreaties

Where the previous owner of a company gives a third party theauthority to register trade marks abroad in its own name, thatauthority remains an effective basis upon which to apply fora Community trade mark even where events subsequent to the givingof the authority would appear to be of contrary effect.     

Genuine Auto Parts v EPA: How to Challenge Agency Findings of Fact

Abstract

This article discusses how to challenge decisions of fact made by administrative agencies, based on a recent federal appellate decision in which a decision by the Environmental Protection Agency was overturned. In Genuine Auto Parts v EPA, the court concluded that the agency’s failure to address an important element of the matter made its decision “arbitrary and capricious” and “not supported by substantial evidence.” The article discusses the relationship between “arbitrary and capricious” and “not supported by substantial evidence” as independent grounds for overturning an agency decision and concludes that both require a challenge to the decision-making process, not a challenge to the substance of the agency decision and the both require a rational process so that an agency failure to articulate a reason for its decision can be grounds for reversal.