I'm Not That Liberal: Explaining Conservative Democratic Identification

The persistence of self-identified conservative Democrats in the electorate is puzzling. Both the ongoing Southern realignment and the recent ideological polarization should have resulted in conservative Democrats changing their party identification to accord with their discrepant ideology. Instead, the number of conservative Democrats, as a percentage of the total electorate, has held steady over the last 20 years. I propose an explanation for this phenomenon that draws upon theories of mass belief systems, as well as an element of recent political reality: the popular stigmatization of the word liberal. I argue that Democrats who are susceptible to elite cues garner positive affect toward the conservative label and negative affect toward the liberal label. They then identify themselves accordingly, regardless of their issue positions.     

Analysis of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in vitreous humour as a forensic tool for detection of alcohol misuse

Analysis of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin concentration in vitreous humour (VH-CDT) has recently been demonstrated to be useful for diagnosis of pre-mortal alcohol misuse, but more knowledge considering possible methodological problems is warranted. In a forensic sample we examined the stability of VH-CDT during laboratory handling as well as the possible affection of time-dependent changes of total transferrin concentrations in vitreous humour (VH-Transferrin) in the dead body on VH-CDT as indicator of alcohol misuse. By use of a commercial assay designed for serum analysis (CDTect) it was possible to measure VH-CDT with high precision, and detectable amounts were found in 20 of 21 alcoholics and in two of seven controls. The compound was demonstrated to be stable in vitreous humour during laboratory handling, since the results of the first analysis were well reproducible after 4 months storage of the specimens (rs=0.86, P=0.0002). Transferrin concentrations in vitreous humour (VH-Transferrin) correlated to the estimated time since the individual last time had been alive before the forensic examination (rs=0.57, P<0.005). However, in this small sample the discriminating property of VH-CDT as indicator of alcohol misuse was not decisively affected, whether or not the variables "VH-Transferrin" and "estimated time since the individual last time had been alive" were considered in a multivariate logistic regression analysis (minor change in the beta-coefficient from 0.57 to 0.52, P=0.086). We conclude that CDT is stable in vitreous humour during proper laboratory handling and that detection of VH-CDT is primarily a marker of alcohol misuse before death. However, the results of this study do not exclude that time-dependent changes of VH-Transferrin, possibly affecting VH-CDT, may occur in the dead body. VH-CDT analysis should thus, at present, be restricted to cases with rather short post-mortal time interval.     

Integrating Voting Theory and Roll Call Analysis: A Framework

Scholars of legislative studies typically use ideal point estimatesfrom scaling procedures to test theories of legislative politics.We contend that theory and methods may be better integratedby directly incorporating maintained and to be tested hypothesesin the statistical model used to estimate legislator preferences.In this view of theory and estimation, formal modeling (1) providesauxiliary assumptions that serve as constraints in the estimationprocess, and (2) generates testable predictions. The estimationand hypothesis testing procedure uses roll call data to evaluatethe validity of theoretically derived to be tested hypothesesin a world where maintained hypotheses are presumed true. Wearticulate the approach using the language of statistical inference(both frequentist and Bayesian). The approach is demonstratedin analyses of the well-studied Powell amendment to the federalaid-to-education bill in the 84th House and the Compromise of1790 in the 1st House.     

Questioning Appeals to Community within Crime Prevention and Control

This article casts a critical eye over some of the (often ignored) assumptions which underlie recent appeals to community in crime prevention and control. The article considers the philosophical origins, ambiguities and tensions within such appeals. In so doing, it draws explicitly upon the growth of community safety and to a lesser extent restorative justice in Britain and considers some of the implications to which this shift may give rise. In particular, it focuses upon the manner in which appeals to community converge and collide with changing social relations which may undermine their progressive potential. Specific attention is given to the implications of: increasing social and spatial dislocation; the commodification of security; and policy debates about a growing underclass. It is argued that there is much confusion as to how, and to what extent, communities can contribute to the construction of social order. Within the dynamics of community safety and crime control practices there are dangers that security differentials may become increasingly significant characteristics of wealth and status with implications for social exclusion. This questions the extent to which crime is an appropriate vehicle around which to (re)construct open and tolerant communities.     

Are Female Offenders Underreported Compared to Male Offenders? A German-Greek Comparison of Crime Reporting,Rating of Offence Seriousness and Personal Experiences of Victimisation

The difference in official crime statistics between women and men is a constant fact in criminology, but has yet to be explained in a satisfactory way. There are few studies addressing the issue of why this gender gap is larger in registered crime than it is in self-report studies. The study at hand comprises a survey among Greek and German students to examine whether this gap could be attributed to a gender-specific reporting of crime. Participants’ self-reported experiences of victimisation and their rating of the seriousness of offences depicted in case vignettes were used to gain insight into varying tendencies to report a crime depending on the offender’s gender. The act of reporting a crime did not vary gender-specifically.     

Are America’s public mass shooters unique? A comparative analysis of offenders in the United States and other countries

Public mass shooters are often assumed to be an exceptionally American problem, but little is known about what proportion of global offenders attack in the United States, or how America’s offenders compare to those in other countries. The present study offers the first quantitative analysis of all known offenders from 1966 to 2012 who attacked anywhere on the globe and killed a minimum of four victims. The results suggest that public mass shooters in the United States are significantly more likely to arm themselves with multiple weapons and attack at school and workplace settings, while offenders from other countries are more likely to strike at military sites. These differences may be partially attributable to America’s national gun culture and its particular set of social strains.     

The EU-Turkey Deal One Year On: A Delicate Balancing Act

Now in its sixth year, the war in Syria has triggered the largest humanitarian and refugee crisis of our time. For most refugees and migrants, Turkey is the main transit country to reach Europe, where Syrian refugees hope for a better future. However, this journey has been hampered as several European countries closed their borders following the arrival of an unprecedented number of migrants and asylum seekers in 2015. In response, a deal was struck with Turkey to stem the migrant flow to Europe in exchange for some concessions. By outsourcing the management of migration flows to Turkey, the EU is failing to take its fair share of responsibility for refugee protection. Furthermore, as a result of the political situation in Turkey and the unmet promises under the deal, relations between Turkey and the EU have touched their lowest point since the start of accession negotiations in 2005. While survival of the deal is of critical importance as the EU needs Turkey’s assistance in curbing migration flows and Turkey is keen on revitalising its accession negotiations, the deal has exposed serious flaws that need to be addressed and must not be replicated with other countries.