The Forward Specialization Coefficient: Distributional Properties and Subgroup Differences

For both public policy and theoretical reasons, criminologists have been interested in the degree to which criminal offenders specialize in particular crimes. Traditionally, offense specialization has been measured with the forward specialization coefficient (FSC). Recently, the FSC has been criticized for being interpretationally obtuse and having no known sampling distribution. In this paper we examine both the interpretational and the statistical properties of the FSC. We conclude that (1) it has an intuitive interpretation that is no less useful than either a standard correlation coefficient or its competitors, (2) its sampling distribution is approximately normal, and (3) the conventional formula for the estimated standard error of the FSC may underestimate the true standard error in some circumstances. With these results behind us, we propose and illustrate both a parametric statistical test for the difference between two independent FSCs and two nonparametric alternatives.     

Reviews

Seweryn Bialer ed. Politics. Society and Nationality inside Gorbachev's Russia. Boulder, London: Westview Press, 1989. xv + 255 pp., £22.50 h/b., £11.00 p/b.

Jan Winiecki, The Distorted World of Soviet‐Type Economies. London and New York: Routledge, 1988, xi + 130 pp., £33.00.

Jan Adam, Economic Reforms in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe since the 1960s. London: Macmillan, 1989, xvi + 242 pp. £29.50.

Alexander George, Philip J. Farley and Alexander Dallin, eds. U.S.‐Soviet Security Cooperation. Achievements, Failures, Lessons. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988, xi + 746 pp., £30.00.

Thomas M. Cynkin, Soviet and American Signalling in the Polish Crisis. London: MacMillan Press, 1988, ix + 263 pp., £35.00.

Stephen Lewarne, Soviet Oil: The Move Offshore. Boulder and London: Westfield Press, 1988, xiv + 190 pp. Price not indicated.

Margaret Chadwick, David Long and Machiko Nissanke, Soviet Oil Exports: Trade Adjustments, Refining Constraints and Market Behaviour. Oxford: OUP 1987. xviii + 263 pp. £29.50.

James H. Bater, The Soviet Scene: A Geographical Perspective. London: Edward Arnold, 1989, xv + 304 pp., £30.00 h/b., £11.95 p/b.

Raymond Hutchings, Soviet Secrecy and Non‐Secrecy. London: Macmillan, 1987, vii + 292 pp., £29.50.

Bryan Ranft and Geoffrey Till, The Sea in Soviet Strategy. 2nd Edition, London: Macmillan, 1989, xviii + 284 pp., £35.00.

Robert Desjardins, The Soviet Union through French Eyes, 1945–85. Foreward by Archie Brown, St Antony's/Macmillan series, Macmillan Press, London, 1988, xiii + 199 pp., £33.00.

Linda R. Killen, The Soviet Union and the United States: A New Look at the Cold War. Boston: Twayne Publishers, 1989, xv + 195 pp., $24.95 h/b., $12.95 p/b.

Anne D. Rassweiler, The Generation of Power. The History of Dneprostroi. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988, viii + 247 pp., £24.00.

Stephen White, The Bolshevik Poster. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1988, viii + 152 pp., £19.95, $39.95.

János Timár, Idö és munkaidö (Time and Work Time), Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadó, Budapest, 1988, 297 pp.

Tamara Dragadze, Rural Families in Soviet Georgia. A case study in Ratcha Province. International Library of Anthropology, Routledge, London and New York, 1988, xii + 226 pp.

Thomas A. Oleszczuk, Political Justice in the USSR: Dissent and Repression in Lithuania, 1969–1987. Boulder, Colorado: East European Monographs, 1988, viii + 221 pp., $34.50.

Nora Levin, The Jews in the Soviet Union since 1917: Paradox of Survival. New York: New York University Press, 1988, 2 vols. xxxiv + 1013 pp., $55 each vol., $100 the set; foreign prices $69 and $125.

Benjamin Pinkus, The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988, xvii + 397 pp., £30.00, $34.50.

Marko Milivojevi?, John B. Allcock and Pierre Maurer, eds. Yugoslavia's Security Dilemmas: Armed Forces, National Defence and Foreign Policy. Oxford: Berg Publishers Limited, 1988, viii + 324 pp., £35.00.

German Institute for Economic Research, ed. GDR and Eastern Europe. A Handbook. Avebury, Gower Publishing Company Limited, 1989, xxi + 383 pp., £32.50.

Daniel N. Nelson, Romanian Politics in the Ceausescu Era. London: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1988, xvii + 244 pp., $69.00.

The Blackwell Encyclopedia of the Russian Revolution, Edited by Harold Shukman, Basil Blackwell, 1988, xv + 418 pp.     

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Vladimir Shlapentokh, Soviet Intellectuals and Political Power: The Post‐Stalin Era. London: I. B. Tauris & Co. Ltd., 1990, xiv + 321 pp., £19.95

Jadwiga Staniszkis, The Dynamics of the Breakthrough in Eastern Europe. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1991, xiii + 303 pp., £25.00, $35.00.

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Deborah Adelman, The ‘Children of Perestroika’. Moscow Teenagers Talk About Their Lives and the Future. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe Inc., 1991, xxiii + 256 pp., $24.95.

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2030年全球战略预测

未来20年世界发展演进中将不会出现过往20年间较为典型的剧变和震荡。美国将在创新、金融和军事领域保持全球领导者的地位。中国地位的加强将最大程度地影响到全球权力均衡。以市场经济和民主为基础的全球化意识形态将维持其世界主导思想体系的地位。意识形态将更频繁地与全球的政治、社会经济和文化发展趋势相关联。这将成为未来全球治理意识形态的基础。在2030年前,世界文化体系以及各种文化内核发生大规模变化的可能性极小,同时很难形成创新文化和生产文化占主导地位的全球文化。全球治理的机制和原则将继续形成。世界经济发展的主要动力为创新和全球化。全球化在未来20年将继续推动世界经济的增长。但在预测期的前半段,将始终可以感觉到世界金融经济危机的影响。限制增长的主要因素来自于新的世界经济金融危机以及保护主义的抬头。2011-2030年,世界经济年均增速将达到4.0%到4.5%。中国接近中等发达国家水平并拥有较高的社会经济发展速度是2030年前的主要变化。发达国家和发展中国家的传统划分将发生改变。增长质量和竞争力标准将决定一国在世界经济版图中的地位。中国在GDP规模上至少会接近美国的水平,但GDP中的创新成分及其他质量型的成分方面仍将落后于...     

Some political aspects of taxation and distribution in federal governments: An application of the theory of the core

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to study questions about taxation and revenue sharing n federal systems. It is particularly concerned with the effect of the heterogeneity of regions on the pattern of taxation and distribution and on the capacity of the central government to retain revenue for its own purposes. It is argued that one useful way to study such questions is to treat federations as coalitions that try to maximise their returns from taxations schemes. This approach is developed using the theory of the core from cooperative game theory. Emphasis is placed on the political constraints on the capacity of the central government.     

The scramble for resources: African case studies

China's renewed interest in Africa's resources is a mixed blessing. China is offering infrastructure packages that are especially attractive for post‐conflict countries but it is also helping countries with poor governance to avoid western pressure for economic and democratic reform.     

The Value of Non-Governmental Intelligence: Widening the Field

In the UK, the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has a poor track record of predicting attack. In the US, official inquiries into 9/11 identified ‘a failure of imagination’ to conceive of a large scale threat to the American homeland. There is a long-standing literature on surprise attack which emphasizes that clues to predict attack often exist but are not pieced together by an intelligence sector which is not structured to look in the right direction. In a world of increasingly fragmented threats and weak signals, it is apparent that much of the challenge in intelligence work now lies not in collection but in managing requirements, setting priorities, and conducting incisive analysis based on the ability to imagine new threats. One solution to a failure of imagination is to widen the range of people who can contribute to the task. Non-Governmental analysis of security issues, whether by academia, civil society or the private sector, can help to identify emerging issues and set priorities. Whilst collection of secret intelligence may always remain the preserve of specialist Government agencies, the rest of the intelligence cycle can benefit from external contributions and open source intelligence. We argue that the process of setting intelligence requirements could be opened to a wider range of actors. In conflict environments, there may be particular value in an open process to identify what each side would need to know about the other to confidently seek peace.