The Relative Influence of Different Domains of Social Connectedness on Self-Directed Violence in Adolescence

Previous research has linked greater social connectedness with a lowered risk of self-directed violence among adolescents. However, few studies have analyzed the comparative strength of different domains of connectedness (e.g., family, peers and school) to determine where limited resources might best be focused. Data to address that gap were taken from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Student Health and Safety Survey, administered to 4,131 7th–12th graders (51.5% female; 43.8% Hispanic; 22.6% African American or Black). Logistic regressions (controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, family structure, academic performance, and depressive symptoms) suggest that family connectedness was a stronger predictor than connectedness to peers, school, or adults at school for non-suicidal self-harm, suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and non-fatal suicidal behavior. In some analyses, peer connectedness was unexpectedly a risk factor. Results have implications for prevention of suicide in adolescence, especially in the context of the current trend towards school-based prevention programs.     

Spoiler effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from eight Polish parliamentary elections, 1991–2015

I consider a model of multiple winner elections with several types of spoilers. In single-office elections, a “classic” spoiler turns a winner into a non-winner and a non-winner into a winner. Such spoilers rarely appear in multi-office elections. In such elections, spoilers include a “Kingmaker”, who turns a non-winner into a winner; a “Kingslayer”, who turns a winner into a non-winner; a “Valuegobbler”, who subtracts from some competitor more seats than it receives; and “Selfspoilers”, who may be hurt by competing separately rather than creating an electoral coalition. Various strategic spoilers, such as fake parties, are possible as well. I look for spoilers in eight Polish parliamentary elections that have taken place since the fall of communism in 1989. In two elections, the consequences of spoilers were massive. In 1993, multiple spoilers on the right helped the two post-communist parties return to power, slow down decommunization and create strong institutional obstacles to further democratization. In 2015, a spoiler manufactured a majority for the largest party (PiS) and, as a consequence, enabled PiS quickly to implement radical reforms. In other elections, spoilers had smaller, but noticeable consequences. The results suggest that parliamentary elections using PR party-list systems are vulnerable to spoiler problems that may cause significant political effects.     

GSR2005—Continuity of the ENFSI Proficiency Test on Identification of GSR by SEM/EDX

Abstract:  Within the framework of the ENFSI Expert Working Group "Firearms" a proficiency test on the detection and identification of GSR by energy-dispersive scanning electron microanalysis (SEM/EDX) is carried out in a 2 years term. The latest test was performed in 2005/2006 and was denoted as GSR2005 . Seventy-five laboratories from 28 countries participated in this proficiency test and submitted in total 83 independent data-sets. The participating laboratories were requested to determine the total number of PbSbBa containing particles on a synthetic test sample following their own laboratory specific methods of automated GSR particle search and detection by SEM/EDX. Furthermore size and position of the detected particles had to be reported by the laboratories and were evaluated statistically. The results were compiled by means of z -scores according to the IUPAC and EURACHEM guidelines—assessing individual laboratory achievements (inter-laboratory) as well as intra-laboratory performance—and were compared to the results of the previous proficiency test run GSR2003 ( 1 ). The comparison shows that there is a noticeable improvement in the method's detection capability.     

The impacts of the Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University shootings on fear of crime on campus

There has been a substantial increase in the number of mass shooting incidents on college campuses in the United States in recent years. Although empirical research examined the impacts of secondary school shootings on student fear, there have been no comparable studies of the impacts of campus shootings. This study began to fill this void by examining responses to surveys administered to convenience samples of students enrolled at the University of South Carolina prior to and following the mass shooting incidents on the campuses of Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University. Findings indicated that both shootings were associated with modest increases in various measures of fear. Other findings were that the impacts of the shootings depended on both the type of fear measured (e.g., general fear versus fear of being a victim of specific crimes) and student characteristics such as age, sex, and race.     

Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections

We study the primacy effects that occur when voters cast their votes because a candidate or party is listed first on a ballot. In the elections that we analyzed, there are three potential types of such effects that might occur when voters vote for (1) the first candidate listed on the ballot in single-member district (SMD) elections (candidate primacy); (2) the first party listed on the ballot in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) elections (party primacy); or (3) the first candidate on a party list in OLPR elections (list primacy). We estimated the party primacy effect (2) and established that there was no interaction between (2) and (3). A party primacy effect is especially difficult to estimate because parties’ positions on ballots are typically fixed in all multi-member districts (MMDs) and it is impossible to separate the first-position “bonus” from a party’s normal electoral performance. A rare natural experiment allowed us to estimate the primacy party bonus between 6.02 and 8.52% of all votes cast for the 2014 Polish local elections. We attribute the large size of such bonus to the great complexity of voting in the OLPR elections, especially the much longer ballots, voting in many simultaneous elections, and ballot design as a booklet rather than a sheet.