Isolating Target And Neighbourhood Vulnerabilities In Crime Forecasting

Risk terrain modelling (RTM) is emerging as an effective approach for predicting how and where crimes concentrate within cities and regions. However, in its previous applications there is a tendency to overestimate the influence of external environmental risks and preventive factors. Most studies applying RTM have investigated factors associated with the characteristics of the urban setting, whilst only a limited number have focused on identifying the risks associated with the availability and the characteristics of potential targets for criminals. This study uses RTM to identify the spatial risk and protective factors related to residential burglaries in the city of Milan, Italy. Factors considered are the neighbourhood- and target-related contextual factors, the exposure to crime and potential mitigating strategies. The results show that when the place and target of the offence are intrinsically related a target-oriented approach to select factors is useful for increasing the understanding of why some locations are most likely to experience future crimes. Indeed, the peculiarities of the target itself are integral to understan both the decision-making of criminals and the overall level of crime risk. Related policy implications are discussed.     

Centre–periphery relations in Afghanistan: Badakhshan between patrimonialism and institution-building

The article offers a review of centre–periphery relations and local politics in the Afghan province of Badakhshan from the 1980s to the post-2001 era. It maps the local powerbrokers and charts the transformations that occurred during this period, with particular reference to the impact of the central government's policies on local political alignments and relations of power. The key argument is that President Karzai's and the cabinet's behaviour towards Badakhshani politics was aimed at re-establishing a patrimonial system, rather than at institution-building as claimed. Unable or unwilling to successfully deal with established local players, Kabul resorted to sponsoring new players in local politics and facilitating their rise in order to weaken more independent powerbrokers. However, a local perception of weakness in Kabul, not least due to uncertainty over the durability of the Karzai administration, led local players, old and new, to behave with very short-term horizons, as ‘roving bandits’ rather than as ‘stationary’ ones.     

The Role of Ego-Resiliency as Mediator of the Longitudinal Relationship between Family Socio-Economic Status and School Grades

Family socio-economic status (SES) represents one of the major determinants of youth’s scholastic achievement, and thus it is important to unravel the psychological factors underlining this relation. In this article, we examined youth’s ability to flexibly adapt and, thus, cope with harsh environmental conditions—assessed by the construct of ego-resiliency—as a mediating mechanism in the across-time association between family SES and academic achievement. The longitudinal sample was composed of 265 (56% females) Italian students who were about 13 years old at Time 1 (T1) and about 18 years old at Time 2 (T2). In a structural equation model analysis, family SES significantly predicted ego-resiliency 6 years later while controlling for the latter’s strong longitudinal stability. Students’ school grades at the end of senior high school were also predicted by ego-resiliency assessed at the age of 13, controlling for grades in the last year of junior high school, gender, and initial differences in ages. In accordance with the posited hypothesis, this study provided support for a two-wave meditational model in which the relation between family SES at 13 years and later school grades at 19 years was mediated by ego-resiliency. All in all, results support the argument that being resilient, and thus being able to flexibly adapt one’s own emotional state and resultant behavior, matters to school success.     

Classifying political regimes

This study presents a classification of political regimes as democracies and dictatorships for a set of 141 countries between 1950 or the year of independence and 1990. It improves existing classifications by a better grounding in political theory, an exclusive reliance on observables rather than on subjective judgements, an explicit distinction between systematic and random errors, and a more extensive coverage.     

Evaluating the forensic informativeness of mtDNA haplogroup H sub-typing on a Eurasian scale

The impact of phylogeographic information on mtDNA forensics has been limited to the quality control of published sequences and databases. In this work we use the information already available on Eurasian mtDNA phylogeography to guide the choice of coding-region SNPs for haplogroup H. This sub-typing is particularly important in forensics since, even when sequencing both HVRI and HVRII, the discriminating power is low in some Eurasian populations. We show that a small set (eight) of coding-region SNPs resolves a substantial proportion of the identical haplotypes, as defined by control-region variation alone. Moreover, this SNP set, while substantially increasing the discriminating efficiency in most Eurasian populations by roughly equal amounts, discloses population-specific profiles.