Budget deficits and interest rates in the United States

In this paper, an attempt has been made to reexamine the effect of budget deficits in the United States on interest rates. Unlike the previous studies which use only one definition of the dependent variable, we have used all three, namely, the nominal and the ex-post and the ex-ante real interest rate. Further, unlike previous studies, we considered both short-term and long-term interest rates. Our results provide absolutely no support for the proposition that federal deficits affect interest rates and thus contradict the recent findings by Cebula (1987) and Kolluri and Giannaros (1987). Finally, the paper provides some further support for the inverted Fisher hypothesis proposed by Carmichael and Stebbing (1983).Thanks are due to Zheng Wei for research assistance.     

Vitreous Fluid and/or Urine Glucose Concentrations in 1335 Civil Aviation Accident Pilot Fatalities*

Abstract: During aviation accident investigations, vitreous fluid and urine samples from pilot fatalities are analyzed for glucose and blood for hemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c) to monitor diabetic pilots and to discover other pilots with undiagnosed/unreported diabetes. The prevalence of elevated glucose concentrations in fatally injured pilots was evaluated by searching the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute’s Toxicology Database for the period 1998–2005. Out of 1335 pilots involving 363 vitreous fluid, 365 urine, and 607 vitreous fluid and urine analyses, 43 pilots had elevated glucose in vitreous fluid (>125 mg/dL) and/or in urine (>100 mg/dL). Of the 20 pilots whose blood samples were analyzed, nine had >6% HbA_1c—four were known diabetics, and five were unknown diabetics. Urinary glucose levels were elevated in all 13 known hyperglycemic pilots. A considerable number of pilots (30 of 43) had elevated glucose and HbA_1c (5 of 20), suggesting undiagnosed/unreported diabetic conditions.     

Toward Developing a Structured Approach to the Diagnosis and Resolution of Nonperforming Loans: The Case of China and India1

This article addresses the issue of nonperforming loans (NPLs) from a public policy perspective. The focus is on three aspects of NPLs that we consider essential for a proper analysis: the degree of the NPL problem, the causes of NPLs and the solutions adopted to address an identified NPL issue. This research analyses the diverse definitions and measurements of an NPL. Further, it introduces the distinction between systemic and situational causes of NPLs. Arguing that different causes require different cures, this study emphasizes a mix of short‐term and long‐term remedial measures as judicious in dealing with the NPL problem. This framework is then applied to two case studies: China and India. The conclusion identifies future directions of research, such as the study of a threshold level beyond which NPLs may pose a barrier to a country's growth and productivity.