A near miss: The North Korean nuclear crisis

Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas (New York: Addison‐Wesley, 1998), xvii, 472 pp./$30.00 cloth; Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), xi, 321 pp./$29.95 cloth.     

The Common Law and the Forms of Reasoning

The purpose of this article is to examine how various forms of reasoning both can and should be used to decide cases in the common law tradition. I start by separating positive questions about what the law is from normative questions about what the law ought to be. Next, I present a Peircean account of three main forms of reasoning – deduction, induction and abduction – and examine how they can be used by judges to decide cases in the common law. Finally, I argue that the three forms of reasoning can be used to answer both kinds of questions, but in different ways. All three forms of reasoning can be used to answer questions of positive law, while questions of normative law present a special case that may require the use of aesthetic judgments of taste in the formation of a legal hypothesis.     

Research note: Rand's research on terrorism

Repeatedly, during the last few years, small groups of extremists have demonstrated that by using terrorist tactics they can achieve disproportionate effects. They attract worldwide attention to themselves and their causes; they arouse worldwide alarm, and can create international incidents that national governments are compelled to deal with, often before a worldwide audience. To protect against their attacks or to respond to crisis situations they create, they force governments to expend resources—manpower, money, the attention of senior officials—vastly out of scale with the magnitude of the actual threat they pose.¹     

Investigating the Causal Effects of Arts Education

There is a paucity of research on the causal relationship between arts learning and educational outcomes. Investigating these relationships has become imperative as policymakers increasingly prioritize empirical evidence of educational impacts, which often leads to curriculum narrowing that favors traditionally-tested subjects. Employing a randomized controlled trial with 42 elementary and middle schools in Houston, Texas, we find that randomly assigning arts educational opportunities reduces disciplinary infractions, improves writing achievement, and increases students’ emotional empathy. Students in elementary schools, which were the primary focus of the program, also experience increases in school engagement, college aspirations, and cognitive empathy. As the first large-scale randomized control trial of arts learning in an authentic school setting, these findings provide strong evidence that the arts can produce meaningful impacts on students’ academic outcomes and social-emotional development. Education policymakers should consider these benefits when assessing the role of the arts in schools.     

The COVID Cash Transfer Study: The Impacts of a One-Time Unconditional Cash Transfer on the Well-Being of Families Receiving SNAP in Twelve States

There is growing interest in the use of unconditional cash transfers as a means to alleviate poverty, yet little is known about the effects of such transfers in the U.S. This paper reports on the results of a randomized controlled study of a one-time $1,000 unconditional cash transfer in May 2020 to families with low incomes in 12 U.S. states. The families were receiving, or had recently received, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. We examine the impact of the cash transfer on five pre-registered outcomes (material hardship, mental health, parenting, child behavior, partner relationships) and several secondary outcomes (hardship avoidance, consumption, employment, benefit use). We find no statistically significant effects (powered to detect effects of 0.09 standard deviations) of the cash transfer on any outcomes for the full sample. In pre-specified exploratory analyses, we find significant reductions in material hardship (-0.17 standard deviations) among families with less than $500 of earnings in the previous month, roughly the bottom 50 percent of monthly earnings for the study sample.     

Explosions in the Sky: Coverage for Non-Contaminating Properties of Pollutants

Pollution liability and general liability insurance policies, in theory, should afford complementary rather than overlapping coverage. While this works well in theory, non-traditional pollution events challenge this outcome. This article focuses on loss events resulting from explosions, and in particular whether the resulting harms should be considered for coverage under a pollution policy or a general liability policy.