The Problem of Predictability: Unstable Systems, Traffic Dividers and Arms Races

Social scientists seem to do a good job predicting some major events in history and spectacularly poor job with others. This paper is concerned with the puzzle that this poses. It investigates systems of interaction and suggests that, in principle, some criteria can be established to aid our intuitions about what might and might not be predictable. It differs from the more usual approaches which tend to treat history in monolithic terms. Instead it examines a simple concrete model of processes like economic growth and coalition formation.     

DNA evidence in rape cases and the Debbie Smith Act: forensic practice and criminal justice implications

The Debbie Smith or "Justice for All" Act was passed on November 1, 2004. The act addresses the problem of collecting and analyzing DNA evidence from backlogged rape kits sitting in crime laboratories around the country. Presently, no empirical data exist by which to assess the soundness of the legislation. However, the act clearly affects discrete operations within the forensic and criminal justice systems. This article explores the relative merits of the Debbie Smith law, highlighting changes in Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (SANE) programs, law enforcement, court administration, correctional treatment, and juvenile justice practices. Concerns linked to the likely impact of the "Justice for All" Act raise significant questions about its overall programmatic utility and treatment efficacy.     

Population structure of Y chromosome SNP haplogroups in the United States and forensic implications for constructing Y chromosome STR databases

A set of 61 Y chromosome single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (Y-SNPs) is typed in a sample of 2517 individuals from 38 populations to infer the geographic origins of Y chromosomes in the United States and to test for paternal admixture among African-, European-, Hispanic-, Asian-, and Native-Americans. All of the samples were previously typed with the 11 core U.S. Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) recommended by SWGDAM, which revealed high levels of among ethnic group variation and low levels of among-population-within-ethnic-group variation. Admixture estimates vary greatly among populations and ethnic groups. The frequencies of non-European (3.4%) and non-Asian (4.5%) Y chromosomes are generally low in European-American and Asian-American populations, respectively. The frequencies of European Y chromosomes in Native-American populations range widely (i.e., 7-89%) and follow a West to East gradient, whereas they are relatively consistent in African-American populations (26.4+/-8.9%) from different locations. The European (77.8+/-9.3%) and Native-American (13.7+/-7.4%) components of the Hispanic paternal gene pool are also relatively constant among geographic regions; however, the African contribution is much higher in the Northeast (10.5+/-6.4%) than in the Southwest (1.5+/-0.9%) or Midwest (0%). To test for the effects of inter-ethnic admixture on the structure of Y-STR diversity in the U.S., we perform subtraction analyses in which Y chromosomes inferred to be admixed by Y-SNP analysis are removed from the database and pairwise population differentiation tests are implemented on the remaining Y-STR haplotypes. Results show that low levels of heterogeneity previously observed between pairs of Hispanic-American populations disappear when African-derived chromosomes are removed from the analysis. This is not the case for an unusual sample of European-Americans from New York City when its African-derived chromosomes are removed, or for Native-American populations when European-derived chromosomes are removed. We infer that both inter-ethnic admixture and population structure in ancestral source populations may contribute to fine scale Y-STR heterogeneity within U.S. ethnic groups.     

Simultaneous separation of different types of amphetamine and piperazine designer drugs by capillary electrophoresis with a chiral selector

The recent emergence of a new class of piperazine-type compounds has brought about the need for laboratory screening methods for both seized drugs and toxicological samples. These piperazine compounds, which include 1-benzylpiperazine (BZP) and 1-(3-trifluoromethylphenyl)piperazine (TFMPP), exhibit comparable physiological effects and can be substituted for the classic amphetamine-type drugs. We have optimized a chiral capillary electrophoresis (CE) separation that detects a set of 6 piperazine and 4 chiral amphetamine compounds in under 23 min using a 200 mM phosphate buffer at a pH = 2.8 with 20 mM hydroxypropyl- beta-cyclodextrin (HPbeta3CD). In addition to the above compounds, a series of "clandestine" BZP diHCl samples were also analyzed using this method to assess the ruggedness of the procedure. The novel CE separation was tailored to simultaneously detect these piperzine compounds in addition to amphetamine-type drugs. Distinct migration time and UV-spectral data were obtained for all compounds of interest.     

Factors related to suicide in New York state prisons

OBJECTIVE: Examine factors related to prison suicides to aid prevention. METHOD: Review the mental health records of all 76 suicides that occurred between 1993 and 2001 in New York State Department of Correctional Services (NYSDOCS) prisons that had some contact with mental health services during their incarceration. (This represented 84% of all NYSDOCS suicides.) Extract data from the psychological autopsies for a sample of 40 of these suicides. RESULTS: Of the suicide victims with some mental health contact, 95% had a substance abuse history, 70% displayed agitation or anxiety prior to the suicide, and 48% had a behavioral change. Common stressors preceding the suicide were inmate-to-inmate conflict (50%), recent disciplinary action (42%), fear (40%), physical illness (42%), and adverse information (65%) such as loss of good time or disruption of family/friendship relationships in the community. Forty-one percent had received a mental health service within 3 days of the suicide. Compared to the about 7200 inmates actively receiving mental health services in state prison, African-Americans and patients with a Major Mood (Bi-polar or Major Depression) were under-represented. Adjustment Disorder, Schizophrenia, and Personality Disorder diagnoses were over-represented. Suicide victims were more likely to have been incarcerated for a violent crime. CONCLUSION: Mental illness, anxiety/agitation, behavior change, stressors, history of substance abuse, and non-African-American were important risk factors.