Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.     

Revising the Factor Structure of the Juror Bias Scale: A Method for the Empirical Validation of Theoretical Constructs

The application of factor analytic techniques to explore the construct and predictive validity of a popular scale used for the identification of pretrial juror bias is herein reported. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was employed on the Juror Bias Scale (JBS) scores of 301 participants, but empirical findings did not support the theoretically derived single-factor scales of Probability of Commission and Reasonable Doubt. Empirically driven alternative models were generated using exploratory factor analysis. The JBS scores of an additional 301 participants were then employed to cross-validate the initial findings using nested modeling CFA. The empirical model achieved a significantly improved fit over the theoretical model and resulted in the elimination of approximately 30% of the original items with no attenuation in the scale's ability to predict juror verdicts. Moreover, a theoretical reorganization of the items was consistent with the empirically derived model and provided a rationale for altering the scoring of the JBS which, in turn, maximized its predictive validity. The use of CFA techniques to aid in the development of scales assessing jury attitudes and biases is discussed.     

Elder abuse detection in nursing facilities: using paid clinical competence to address the nation's shame

Each year, five million senior citizens are the victims of abuse in our country-and that figure is a likely underestimate. In California alone, it is estimated that over 225,000 seniors are abused annually. Nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to abuse, with one-fifth to one-third of these institutions cited for abusive activities that result in actual harm. Regular violations of minimum care regulations by nursing homes have been documented in every state. Despite legal protections, as a practical matter, the review, assessment, and investigation of nursing home care and potential senior abuse is the primary responsibility of voluntary ombudsmen. These volunteers are responsible for regular visits and determination of nursing home quality and resident treatment. This Article contends that, despite their commitment to the cause, voluntary ombudsmen are not a sufficient cure for the scourge of elder abuse. Rather, clinically-trained personnel with legal knowledge must assume the role that lay volunteer ombudsmen are inappropriately expected to play. Use of clinical case managers, who have expertise in assessing clinical factors and can be trained in legal matters, offers significant potential to assist in the detection, and, further, reporting and prosecution of elder abuse. The author concludes that only through use of those with appropriate training and knowledge can the epidemic of elder abuse be effectively addressed.     

The Court of Public Opinion: Lay Perceptions of Polygraph Testing

We sampled a total of 411 participants and randomly assigned them one of three brief trial vignettes that contained either no-polygraph evidence, evidence of a passed polygraph test, or evidence of a failed polygraph test. Participants rendered guilt judgments and answered a series of questions concerning the trial in particular, and polygraph tests in general. Similar to previous studies on the impact of polygraph evidence on jurors' guilt judgments, this sample of jury-eligible adults indicated that they did not find polygraph test evidence to be persuasive. Moreover, it mattered little to participants whether the results indicated the defendant passed a polygraph test, or that he failed a polygraph test. However, when our findings are compared to those of previous surveys involving experts in the field of psychophysiology, they differ in a number of important respects. The implications for decisions regarding admissibility (e.g., U.S. v. Alexander, 1975 and U.S. v. Scheffer, 1998) are discussed.     

Fatal poisoning in childhood, England & Wales 1968-2000

We analysed deaths certified as due to poisoning in England & Wales, 1968-2000, in children aged <10 years by age, sex, circumstances of death, intent, and agents involved. The number of deaths fell from 165 (20.6 per million children) in 1968 to 30 (4.6 per million) in 2000, a decrease of approximately 80%. The age-specific death rates were similar in boys and girls. The rate was initially much higher, and fell more, in those aged <5 years. Most deaths (n=1923) occurred in fires, and had been attributed to inhaling combustion products. A small number (n=104) occurred in fires resulting from motor vehicle and other transport accidents. From 1979 (use of ICD-9) the coding of some of these deaths changed from poisoning with carbon monoxide to poisoning with 'other gases, fumes or vapours'. These 'fire deaths' do not appear as poisonings in mortality statistics based on a single underlying cause of death, and cannot be tabulated as poisoning in many countries. Fire deaths and deaths coded to accidental, deliberate, or undetermined poisoning (n=702) decreased substantially with time, and by 2000 numbered 14 and 10, respectively. Accidental deaths declined from 151 in 1968 to 23 in 2000, but homicides and open verdicts varied from 5 to 20 per year, with no clear trend. Deaths attributed to carbon monoxide and to 'other gases, fumes or vapours' (mostly fire-related) totalled 2431 (84% of all poisoning deaths). Overall, 10% of these deaths were either certified as homicides or open verdicts. However, homicide or open verdict was recorded in half of the 47 fatal opiate poisonings. Opioids have now superseded antidepressants as the commonest agents encountered in fatal poisoning with drugs in children.     

MUDDLING THROUGH THE MURKY WATERS OF TROXEL

A critical case in the area of third-party visitation rights was decided by the U. S. Supreme Court in July 2000 ( Troxel v. Granville ). A plurality in this case held that a Washington grandparent visitation statute was not facially unconstitutional but was as applied to the facts of that case. The author discusses the varying opinions of the Supreme Court justices in the Troxel decision. Next, he analyzes the plurality opinion to determine the appropriate standard of review in grandparent visitation cases. Following is a consideration of how the decision will affect other state grandparent visitation legislation. Examining these issues, the author concludes that future third-party visitation cases will be decided on a fact-specific, case-by-case basis.