India's Fractured Northeastern Frontier: An Overview

The paper tries to analyze the different layers of the conflict in the remote Indian northeast. It looks at the different facets of this conflict, and argues that the conflict in the Indian northeast exists at many different levels. In relation to the different facets of the conflict, the paper has a special focus on human rights abuses, poverty, corruption, poor governance, administrative failure, the role played by external actors, and draconian laws such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. Most of the conflicts have been associated with strong separatist tendencies and the issue of migration. The levels of violence have differed from place to place within the region. While violence has been successfully dealt with by the Indian government in states like Mizoram, the situation in states like Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland seems to be a work in progress. Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland have witnessed very high levels of violence since 1947, when India became independent from British colonial rule, until the present day. Methodologically, the paper follows a bottom up approach, and, to get first-hand information about the conflict, a series of interviews was conducted recently with some of the local residents of the region. The paper suggests demilitarization and infrastructure development in the region as the way forward.     

Electoral alliance with sworn opponent political party: factors impacting voting intention

Alliance with sworn political opponents is becoming a growing phenomenon within the realm of political alliances. Here, two or more competitive political parties join hands to defeat a particular common opponent. During election, alliance partners face election together and distribute electoral seats mutually to avoid vote share. However, ensuring vote in favour of opponent alliance candidate is only possible when voters prefer to cast vote for the alliance candidate. Thus, this is crucial to know influencing factors that shape voters’ voting intention in favour of opponent alliance candidate. This study is an attempt to empirically investigate factors that have significant influence to shape voters’ voting intention for opponent alliance. The result shows that opponent alliance perceived fit impacts opponent alliance voting intention positively. Opponent alliance brand trust has a positive impact on opponent alliance voting intention. In addition, opponent alliance preference impacts opponent alliance voting intention positively.     

Parenting Behavior and Juvenile Delinquency Among Low-Income Families

It is widely known that parenting behavior has an impact on the development of delinquent behavior among adolescents. However, there is paucity of studies focusing on parenting behavior and its relation to juvenile delinquency among low-income families from India. The authors examined a wide range of parenting behavior and its relationship to juvenile delinquency in low-income families among Indians. Data were collected from 27 juvenile delinquent boys who were residing temporarily in an observation home in Kolkata (West Bengal, India) and 100 matched control (with respect to their socioeconomic status) juvenile boys, 11–18 years old, also from the same city. The overall findings revealed that there were higher levels of permissive parenting in the families of delinquent adolescents. It may be because low-income families have many family members that initiated the adolescents to take up some jobs to increase the family income, and this in turn affected their parents’ parenting behavior.     

What Money Can’t Buy: The Security Externalities of Chinese Economic Statecraft in Post-War Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT

China’s growing trade, investment, and aid links are commonly believed to constitute a potent instrument of statecraft, generating important security externalities. Yet there is insufficient research tracing the precise mechanisms linking economic relationships between a “sender” and “target” state to actual influence in the security domain. We offer three contributions. First, we map out the theoretical mechanisms of influence in a sender–target relationship. Second, we empirically investigate these mechanisms through a case study of China’s economic influence in Sri Lanka since 2009. Third, we use our findings to generate new insights on the mechanisms of influence in the economic statecraft literature and the dynamics of great-power competition in South Asia. Beijing’s ability to convert its considerable economic resources into strategic influence in Sri Lanka is currently hampered by the poor planning and implementation of infrastructure projects, domestic politics, and Sri Lanka’s relationship with India, a regional competitor and rising power.     

International Institutions and Domestic Compensation: The IMF and the Politics of Capital Account Liberalization

Certain governments have been faster than others in relaxing their restrictions on the cross‐border movement of capital. How can we explain the timing and extent of financial liberalization across countries since the 1970s? We argue that IMF stabilization programs provide a window of opportunity for governments to initiate financial reforms, but that policy makers are more likely to seize this opportunity when welfare expenditures are high. Large loans from the IMF shield policy makers from the costs of financial reform, while welfare expenditures provide credibility to the government's ex ante promises of compensation to individuals who are harmed by the reforms. We test this hypothesis on data for 87 countries from 1975 to 2002. We employ a spatial autoregressive error sample selection model which accounts for the nonrandom participation of countries in IMF programs as well as the processes of international policy diffusion. The results provide strong support for the interactive effect of IMF programs and domestic welfare expenditures on financial liberalization.     

The All-Asian Women's Conference 1931: Indian women and their leadership of a pan-Asian feminist organisation

In January 1931, the All-Asian Women's Conference (AAWC) convened in Lahore. Forty-five female delegates met to discuss common social and political concerns of women in Asia, such as infant mortality, suffrage, education and rights of inheritance. Organised by Indian women, along with the Irish Theosophist Margaret Cousins, the AAWC spoke to visions of pan-Asianism that were reflected by male Indian nationalists at the time. Keen to counteract the Euro-American centrism of international women's organisations, Asian women discussed the ways they could organise together. This article analyses the rhetoric within the conference, through its reports, correspondence and international newspapers and periodicals. It discusses the ways pan-Asianism was conceived by Indian women in the 1930s and explains why there was only ever one meeting of the AAWC.     

Dynamics of family size and composition: a computer simulation study with reference to rural India

"This study attempts to understand the dynamics that produce the persistent observation of a strong positive correlation between family size and extent of landholdings in predominantly agrarian economies [in India]. Such a correlation can arise from different types of demographic configurations including the rules of family formation. For example, big landholdings may be associated with large families, despite the lack of differentials across holdings of different size in fertility and mortality, simply because these families may remain undivided for long periods. In the absence of conclusive data to analyse this relationship in the Indian case, this study sets up a computer simulation model for studying the results of alternative demographic configurations."     

We Are All Victims: Questionable Content and Collective Victimisation in the Digital Age

Asian Journal of Criminology - Traditionally, the idea of being a victim is associated with a crime, accident, trickery or being duped. With the advent of globalisation and rapid growth in the...     

Finding Friends

An expatriate life has a certain thrill to it-a new country, a new culture, the exploits and escapades-but it is the interaction with the people that we carry with us on our last flight back home.My China sojourn began in the summer of 1999-September 20 to be exact. It was supposed to last a couple of months, and as it happens to many of us,I ended up staying longer than I had planned to.     

Presidential Elections and the Stock Market: Comparing Markov-Switching and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models of Volatility

Bumba Mukherjee Department of Political Science, Florida State University, 554 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306 e-mail: smukherj{at}mailer.fsu.edu Existing research on electoral politics and financial marketspredicts that when investors expect left parties—Democrats(US), Labor (UK)—to win elections, market volatility increases.In addition, current econometric research on stock market volatilitysuggests that Markov-switching models provide more accuratevolatility forecasts and fit stock price volatility data betterthan linear or nonlinear GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditionalheteroskedasticity) models. Contrary to the existing literature,we argue here that when traders anticipate that the Democraticcandidate will win the presidential election, stock market volatilitydecreases. Using two data sets from the 2000 U.S. presidentialelection, we test our claim by estimating several GARCH, exponentialGARCH (EGARCH), fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH),and Markov-switching models. We also conduct extensive forecastingtests—including RMSE and MAE statistics as well as realizedvolatility regressions—to evaluate these competing statisticalmodels. Results from forecasting tests show, in contrast toprevailing claims, that GARCH and EGARCH models provide substantiallymore accurate forecasts than the Markov-switching models. Estimatesfrom all the statistical models support our key prediction thatstock market volatility decreases when traders anticipate aDemocratic victory.