摇晃婴儿综合征:科学(与非科学)专家的一场真实交战

本文从科学和法律层面介绍了摇晃婴儿综合征的有关内容,就关于摇晃婴儿综合征的科学和非科学专家证言的可采性进行了评价,称在科学和非科学专家之间正在发生一场真实的交战。     

Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict

In this study we resolve part of the confusion over how foreign aid affects armed conflict. We argue that aid shocks—severe decreases in aid revenues—inadvertently shift the domestic balance of power and potentially induce violence. During aid shocks, potential rebels gain bargaining strength vis‐à‐vis the government. To appease the rebels, the government must promise future resource transfers, but the government has no incentive to continue its promised transfers if the aid shock proves to be temporary. With the government unable to credibly commit to future resource transfers, violence breaks out. Using AidData's comprehensive dataset of bilateral and multilateral aid from 1981 to 2005, we evaluate the effects of foreign aid on violent armed conflict. In addition to rare‐event logit analysis, we employ matching methods to account for the possibility that aid donors anticipate conflict. The results show that negative aid shocks significantly increase the probability of armed conflict onset.     

How Do I Feel About Feelings? Emotion Socialization in Families of Depressed and Healthy Adolescents

Emotional and cognitive changes that occur during adolescence set the stage for the development of adaptive or maladaptive beliefs about emotions. Although research suggests that parents’ behaviors and beliefs about emotions relate to children’s emotional abilities, few studies have looked at parental socialization of children’s emotions, particularly in families with depressed adolescents. The present study examined associations between parent and adolescent meta-emotion philosophies (MEP), defined as thoughts, reactions, and feelings about their own emotions. Additionally, adolescent depressive status was tested as a moderator of relationships between parents’ and adolescents’ MEP. One hundred and 52 adolescents, aged 14–18 (65.8% female), and their parents (148 mothers, 106 fathers) participated in a study on emotion socialization in families of depressed and healthy adolescents. Depressed adolescents (n = 75) and matched healthy adolescents (n = 77) were recruited based on research criteria for mental health status. The sample was largely Caucasian (82%) and of middle socioeconomic class status. Results indicated that mothers’ and fathers’ MEP about their children’s emotions were associated with adolescents’ MEP, although parents’ MEP about their own emotions was unrelated to adolescents’ MEP. Fathers’ MEP about children’s emotions made unique contributions to adolescents’ MEP across both adolescent groups. Adolescents’ depressive status moderated the relationship between mothers’ and adolescents’ MEP such that mothers’ MEP was particularly relevant for depressed adolescents. The continued influence of parents in the emotional lives of adolescents is discussed as well as differences in emotion socialization in families with depressed and healthy adolescents.     

Change blindness can cause mistaken eyewitness identification

The current study investigated the effects of change blindness and crime severity on eyewitness identification accuracy. This research, involving 717 subjects, examined change blindness during a simulated criminal act and its effects on subjects' accuracy for identifying the perpetrator in a photospread. Subjects who viewed videos designed to induce change blindness were more likely to falsely identify the innocent actor relative to those who viewed control videos. Crime severity did not influence detection of change; however, it did have an effect on eyewitness accuracy. Subjects who viewed a more severe crime ($500 theft) made fewer errors in perpetrator identification than those who viewed a less severe crime ($5 theft). This research has theoretical implications for our understanding of change blindness and practical implications for the real‐world problem of faulty eyewitness testimony.     

GC-MS and GC-IRD analysis of 2-, 3- and 4-methylmethamphetamine and 2-, 3- and 4-methylamphetamine

4-Methylmethamphetamine has been detected in samples submitted for analysis in several states throughout Australia. Six ring substituted methyl isomers of methamphetamine and amphetamine were synthesised and analysed. As the regioisomeric 2-, 3- and 4-methylmethamphetamine and 2-, 3- and 4-methylamphetamine have virtually identical mass spectra, the use of MS is an ineffective technique to discriminate between these closely related compounds. We set out to determine whether the regioisomers could be differentiated by a combination of GC-MS, acetyl derivatisation and GC-IRD. We demonstrate that the three isomers of methylmethamphetamine and methylamphetamine can be separated by GC, and a combination of acetyl derivatisation and vapour phase IR can identify the specific ring substituted compound.     

Score-based likelihood ratios for handwriting evidence

Score-based approaches for computing forensic likelihood ratios are becoming more prevalent in the forensic literature. When two items of evidential value are entangled via a scorefunction, several nuances arise when attempting to model the score behavior under the competing source-level propositions. Specific assumptions must be made in order to appropriately model the numerator and denominator probability distributions. This process is fairly straightforward for the numerator of the score-based likelihood ratio, entailing the generation of a database of scores obtained by pairing items of evidence from the same source. However, this process presents ambiguities for the denominator database generation - in particular, how best to generate a database of scores between two items of different sources. Many alternatives have appeared in the literature, three of which we will consider in detail. They differ in their approach to generating denominator databases, by pairing (1) the item of known source with randomly selected items from a relevant database; (2) the item of unknown source with randomly generated items from a relevant database; or (3) two randomly generated items. When the two items differ in type, perhaps one having higher information content, these three alternatives can produce very different denominator databases. While each of these alternatives has appeared in the literature, the decision of how to generate the denominator database is often made without calling attention to the subjective nature of this process. In this paper, we compare each of the three methods (and the resulting score-based likelihood ratios), which can be thought of as three distinct interpretations of the denominator proposition. Our goal in performing these comparisons is to illustrate the effect that subtle modifications of these propositions can have on inferences drawn from the evidence evaluation procedure. The study was performed using a data set composed of cursive writing samples from over 400 writers. We found that, when provided with the same two items of evidence, the three methods often would lead to differing conclusions (with rates of disagreement ranging from 0.005 to 0.48). Rates of misleading evidence and Tippet plots are both used to characterize the range of behavior for the methods over varying sized questioned documents. The appendix shows that the three score-based likelihood ratios are theoretically very different not only from each other, but also from the likelihood ratio, and as a consequence each display drastically different behavior.     

Tattoo frequency and types among homicides and other deaths, 2007-2008: a matched case-control study

An estimated 25% of the US population aged 18 to 50 years has a tattoo, which have been associated with markers of high-risk behaviors including alcohol and drug use, violence, carrying weapons, sexual activity, eating disorders, and suicide. This study compares tattoo prevalence and type in a homicide population to those of an age-, race-, and sex-matched control group of nonhomicide deaths. The data for this study were abstracted from autopsy records maintained by the Jefferson County Alabama Coroner/Medical Examiner's Office for the years 2007 and 2008. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between homicide and tattoo presence and characteristics were calculated using conditional logistic regression. There was no association between tattoo presence and death by homicide; however, among blacks, memorial tattoos were significantly more common among homicides compared with other types of deaths (odds ratio, 2.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-5.68). The results of the current study suggest that specific types of tattoos, but not all tattoos, may be risk factors for homicide. Other factors, such as race and lifestyle, along with tattoos may need to be considered.     

Preparing for unwanted events: Instances of international political terrorism∗

The problems posed by international political terrorism, the likely performances of governments facing such challenges, and advisable preparatory coping strategies all benefit from systematic consideration of the experience, provided by practices and analyses of attempts to avoid and manage other forms of international crises. This paper pursues such a perspective to supplement more familiar approaches that use police and disaster amelioration points of departure.

The broader experience of international crises makes it clear that the problems are less ones of incident management than of prolonged competition for an image of political legitimacy and efficacy. Accordingly, recommendation for analysis and planning are made with emphasis on inventory of existent management capacities and decision processes, clarification of alternative political consequences, nonintrusive technology fixes, bargaining and indemnification policy options; and diagnostic gaming.