EMERGING ISSUES IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

This article briefly examines five subfields of the public administration literature in the context of the major changes which have occurred in each of those fields since the 1940s. Major changes include: the alleged shift to‘globalization’affecting comparative public administration; the spread of‘economic rationalism’in policy analysis; the new wave of‘managerialism’affecting the study of the public service; the transformation of administrative technique by‘informatization’; and the rise of legal formalization in some fields redrawing the traditional boundary Unes between law and administration. For each of these subfields of public administration, three types of‘emerging issues’are identified. Some of the trends discussed - particularly managerialization and juridification - seem to be in tension with one another, suggesting alternative possible futures for public administration. Moreover, since many of the intellectual and doctrinal shifts seem to reflect a reaction against the shortcomings of an earlier orthodoxy, a counter-reaction in the longer run cannot be ruled out.     

The Effects of Assessment Quality on Revenue Volatility

This paper examines the relationships between assessment quality, property tax revenue volatility, and other revenue volatility using panel data of all 100 counties in North Carolina between 2003 and 2007. Findings suggest that characteristics of the property tax base are the most important predictors of property tax revenue volatility among counties over time. Specifically, increases in assessed value and years in which a mass revaluation occurs are most influential in determining property tax revenue volatility. The second stage of analysis reveals that population, nontax revenue dependence, property tax dependence, and assessment quality have the greatest influences on volatility of other revenues among counties over time. The effect of assessment quality on nonproperty tax revenue volatility is conditional upon a county's property tax dependence.     

Into an Age of Multiple Austerities? Public Management and Public Service Bargains across OECD Countries

This article focuses on Public Service Bargains (PSBs) in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) world in an age of austerity and makes four main claims. First, both logic and recent history suggest that states can respond to financial crises in more than one way. Second, we argue that the pressures on existing PSBs are not all the same in this group of states, given observable differences in their financial vulnerability. Third, we analyze countries' differential exposure to two other major challenges, namely, that of population aging and environmental risk. Fourth, we show that those areas of vulnerability can counteract one another in some cases but be mutually reinforcing in others, and we argue that “triply vulnerable” states in a composite analysis are those likely to face the strongest pressure to change their existing PSBs. We conclude that while homogenizing pressures cannot be ignored, PSB diversity is likely to continue.     

A Bridge to Somewhere: Mapping State and Congressional Ideology on a Cross‐institutional Common Space

Researchers face two major problems when applying ideal point estimation techniques to state legislatures. First, longitudinal roll‐call data are scarce. Second, even when such data exist, scaling ideal points within a single state is an inadequate approach. No comparisons can be made between these estimates and those for other state legislatures or for Congress. Our project provides a solution. We exploit a new comparative dataset of state legislative roll calls to generate ideal points for legislators. Taking advantage of the fact that state legislators sometimes go on to serve in Congress, we create a common ideological scale. Using these bridge actors, we estimate state legislative ideal points in congressional common space for 11 states. We present our results and illustrate how these scores can be used to address important topics in state and legislative politics.     

Explaining the Incidence and Timing of Congressional Responses to the U.S. Supreme Court

Sparked by interest in game‐theoretic representations of the separation of powers, empirical work examining congressional overrides of Supreme Court statutory decisions has burgeoned in recent years. Much of this work has been hampered, however, by the relative rarity of such events; as has long been noted, congressional attention to the Court is limited, and most Court decisions represent the last word on statutory interpretation. With this fact foremost in our minds, we examine empirically a number of theories regarding such reversals. By adopting an approach that allows us to separate the factors that lead to the event itself (that is, the presence or absence of an override in a particular case) from those that influence the timing of the event, we find that case‐specific factors are an important influence in the incidence of overrides, whereas Congress‐ and Court‐specific political influences dominate the timing at which those overrides occur. By separating the incidence and timing of overrides, our study yields a more accurate and nuanced understanding of this aspect of the separation‐of‐powers system.     

Agency Design as an Ongoing Tool of Bureaucratic Influence

Theoretical work assumes that legislators use ex ante design to gain bureaucratic influence, not only at an agency's appointment stage but also as an ongoing tactic. Yet no empirical work has investigated whether or not legislators prefer to use design to exert influence after an agency's appointment stage. Using a mail survey of more than 2,500 legislators, we model legislators' preferences for ex ante design as a function of both institutional factors and individual legislators' characteristics. Our results suggest that the feasibility of agency design as an ongoing tactic of bureaucratic influence is more limited than theoretical work indicates and that both institutional‐ and individual‐level factors explain legislators' preferences.     

The Deterrent Effects of Automobile Insurance and Tort Law: A Survey of the Empirical Literature

One of the central issues in the debate concerning no-fault insurance is the question of whether tort damages can deter accidents. Although a large, scientific literature exists which could cast light on this question, the participants in the debate have made little reference to that literature. In an attempt to rectify this omission, the following paper surveys a large segment of the statistical results, and comments on the implications which those results have for the no- fault debate.     

RISK,RACE, AND RECIDIVISM: PREDICTIVE BIAS AND DISPARATE IMPACT*

One way to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety is to use risk assessment instruments in sentencing and corrections. Although these instruments figure prominently in current reforms, critics argue that benefits in crime control will be offset by an adverse effect on racial minorities. Based on a sample of 34,794 federal offenders, we examine the relationships among race, risk assessment [the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA)], and future arrest. First, application of well‐established principles of psychological science revealed little evidence of test bias for the PCRA—the instrument strongly predicts arrest for both Black and White offenders, and a given score has essentially the same meaning—that is, the same probability of recidivism—across groups. Second, Black offenders obtain higher average PCRA scores than do White offenders (d = .34; 13.5 percent nonoverlap in groups’ scores), so some applications could create disparate impact. Third, most (66 percent) of the racial difference in PCRA scores is attributable to criminal history—which is already embedded in sentencing guidelines. Finally, criminal history is not a proxy for race, but instead it mediates the relationship between race and future arrest. Data are more helpful than rhetoric if the goal is to improve practice at this opportune moment in history.