国内进程、不对称互动与体系变化——中国、东盟与东亚合作

本文从中国—东盟关系以及东亚体系文化的转变这一问题出发,试图建立一个地区体系文化转型的理论模型。本文提出,推动地区文化转型的过程有两个:一是地区大国的国内进程,尤其是国内观念和规范层面的变化;二是地区大国与地区其他国家的互动,包括互动内容和互动方式。本文假设,国内政治、经济和社会进程的变化导致地区大国在对外交往中与他者的互动方式和互主身份发生变化,其中最为重要的是地区大国与地区制度主导行为体的关系变化,如果大国在上升过程中能够与该行为体进行不对称互动,让其主导互动过程,并使互动的物质和规范收益向其倾斜,就能与之实现相互认同,并进而在此过程中被地区制度社会化,从而推动建设和平与合作的地区体系文化。本文以中国、东盟与东亚合作为案例对假设进行了验证。     

Extending an Olive Branch

Why the Obama administration is trying to repair relations with the Muslim world After finishing his busy schedule at the G20 summit, the NATO summit, and the summit between the lEuropean Union and the United States, U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in Ankara on April 5 for a two-day visit to     

市场主导:法制宣传教育的路径选择

法制宣传教育即将完成第六个五年规划的实施,其未来发展的路径选择应该摆上国家决策的议事日程。从政治、经济、技术和人文等四个方面的因素,客观地追溯法制宣传教育产生的历史背景,并从国家发展的宏观视野切入分析法制宣传教育的现实状况,可以看出,"市场主导"是法制宣传教育未来发展之最佳路径选择。     

Trust in elections,vote buying,and turnout in Latin America

Although national elections in Latin America are now described as reasonably free and fair by international observations teams, electoral processes are still affected by a series of malpractices (unequal access to the media and public resources, registration problems, vote buying). These irregularities negatively affect citizens' trust in elections. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of low trust in elections and exposure to vote buying practices on electoral participation in Latin America. Using data from the 2010 wave of LAPOP surveys, we find that perceiving that the election is unfair reduces the willingness to participate in national elections, but receiving material incentives during the campaign has the opposite effect of increasing electoral participation. We also show that the effect of trust in elections on turnout is larger in countries where voting is not mandatory.     

气候正义的僵局与出路——基于法哲学与经济学的跨学科考察

气候正义涉及复杂的国际法与国内法问题。传统国际法强调主权独立和互不干涉,而应对气候变化必然要求国际社会合作减排。国际合作减排的前提是各国主动放弃部分排放权利,主动承担减排义务。气候变化对整个国际社会造成了极大的危害,由于各国所处地理位置不同,各国所受的负面冲击不尽一致。有些国家必须支出巨额的调整成本以适应变化了的全球气候,而有些国家反而会因气候变化获得短期利益。根据科斯定律初始权利分配原理,气候正义不是简单的排放权的界定与转让问题,它要求运用分配正义与矫正正义原则对不公平分担减排责任的现象进行平衡处理。中国固然应当积极参与国际合作减排,但同时要坚持发展权优先的观点,与工业发达国家展开有理有节的谈判与斗争,争取最大限度地实现矫正正义。     

美韩同盟再定义与韩国的战略选择:进程与争论

本文系统总结了自2002年底以来美韩同盟再定义的磋商过程,以及双方在驻韩美军基地调整、同盟内部军事安全角色分工、同盟的未来战略构想等三大焦点问题上所取得的实质性进展,认为通过区域扩展和内涵扩展的路径选择,美韩同盟再定义已基本实现利益平衡与威胁平衡的双重目标。通过对美韩全球性战略同盟关系的定位与确认,韩国也由此结束了数年来激烈的外交方向辩论,再度确立了中近期亲美的结盟外交路线,然而有关韩国对外战略的争论不会就此终结。     

Pen guns in Turkey

This study describes the frequency and type of pen guns in Turkey by examining the cases sent to the Council of Forensic Medicine of Turkey between 2000 and 2004. In total, 32 cases and 61 pen guns were examined. These guns were evaluated in respect of the type of the gun, size and caliber, rifling, design, mechanism, fitness for use, legality, and geographical distribution. Fifty-nine percent of the guns were 22-gauge. Most commonly, they originate from South Eastern Anatolia. It is suggested that the guns are handmade.     

突发公共安全事件扩散动力学模型仿真研究

由于自然—社会—经济系统互动随社会发展不断增加,突发公共安全事件更多地呈现出扩散化的形式,产生的影响远大于单一事件的发生。本文以复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论为基础并借鉴灾害链的相关研究,分别针对单一突发公共安全事件、突发公共安全事件链式扩散和突发公共安全事件网络扩散的特征、共性进行探索,建立事件发生和扩散的复杂系统动力学模型,通过突发公共安全事件扩散网络的动力学模型进行仿真实验,进一步探索不同网络结构和影响因素下的突发事件扩散机理。在复杂网络中,不同网络结构、事件爆发阈值、事件间关联度都会对突发事件的扩散产生影响。     

Accuracy of different dental age estimation methods on Turkish children

Tooth development is widely used to estimate age or maturation. Dental age estimation is so important for various research works. Numerous methods have been described to estimate dental age based on the dental maturation. The aims of this study were to decide the best method to estimate dental age on Turkish children by reviewing several methods and to illustrate the differences among the methods and to assist future studies. The records of Turkish children between the ages of 7 and 13 years who visited the Department of Pediatric Dentistry of the Faculty of Dentistry of the Süleyman Demirel University in Isparta, Turkey were reviewed and a total of 425 healthy children with complete records, satisfactory panoramic radiographs, similar socio-economic background and ethnic origin were included. Panoramic radiographs were examined with Nolla's, Haavikko's and Demirjian's methods. Dental age was calculated for each method, and the differences between the estimated dental age and the chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. The accuracy of three methods was obtained with ICC (intraclass correlation coefficient). An under-estimation of the dental age was observed by using Nolla's and Haavikko's methods (boys -0.53±0.95, girls -0.57±0.91, both -0.54±0.93; boys -0.60±0.80, girls -0.56±0.81, both -0.58±0.80, respectively) and an over-estimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian's method (boys 0.52±0.86, girls 0.75±0.90, both 0.64±0.89). Haavikko's method was more accurate in the dental age estimation compared to the other methods. All of the three methods are not completely suitable for Turkish children and establishment of the population-specific standards is essential and crucial.     

《刑事诉讼法修正案（草案）》的功能性分析

诉讼功能认识的偏差影响人们对诉讼的运用及诉讼理论、诉讼制度的建构。我国《刑事诉讼法》修改一方面不应削弱惩罚犯罪的功能,另一方面也应进一步强化人权保障的功能。本文试图在对《中华人民共和国刑诉法修正案（草案）》作功能性分析的基础上,围绕我国《刑事诉讼法》修改中的几个争议问题,提出以强化与完善相关制度与程序予以解决的方法和建议。