The Eurogroup,power and accountability

This article considers the role of the Eurogroup in EU decision‐making, a topic that is under‐theorised, more especially given its importance in the overall EU schema. The Eurogroup's power has grown very considerably, largely because of the enhanced role that it has been accorded as a result of the financial crisis, with the result that its power no longer accords with the Treaty provisions that specify its function. The article sets out the Treaty foundations of the Eurogroup, examines its role in EU decision‐making, the rationale for its increased power, and the extent to which it is politically and legally accountable.     

The influence of implicit theories and offender characteristics on judgements of sexual offenders: a moderated mediation analysis

The psychological factors underpinning responses to sexual offenders are beginning to receive increased empirical scrutiny. One such factor is offender representativeness, which refers to the extent to which a given offender example matches a stereotype of those who are typically labelled as “sexual offenders”. Using a sample of 252 community members, we examined the role of implicit theories about sexual offenders (ie whether sexual offending is seen as fixed or malleable) in mediating the relationship between affective responses to sexual offenders and policy outcome judgements. We found support for this mediating effect, although this was eliminated when participants were presented with a “non-representative” offender vignette. We argue that the relationship between affective responses and policy judgements is contingent on the activation of a sexual offender stereotype, and that this link can be disrupted via the increased presentation of non-stereotypical case examples. Implications for public debate and professional practice are discussed.     

Eyewitness susceptibility to co-witness misinformation is influenced by co-witness confidence and own self-confidence

If an eyewitness is exposed to a co-witness statement that incorrectly blames an innocent bystander for a crime, the eyewitness can be influenced by this statement and also blame the innocent bystander for the crime. This effect is known as blame conformity. In two studies, we examined whether or not this effect is influenced by the degree of confidence a co-witness expresses in her incorrect statement (Study 1) and an eyewitness’s own level of self-confidence (Study 2). Participant eyewitnesses first watched a crime video featuring a perpetrator and an innocent bystander, then read a co-witness statement about the crime that either correctly blamed the perpetrator, incorrectly blamed the innocent bystander, or blamed nobody (a control condition). They were then asked who committed the crime. In Study 1, participants who read an incorrect statement were at increased risk of engaging in blame conformity when the co-witness expressed a high level of confidence, compared to a low level of confidence, in the accuracy of her statement. In Study 2, participants who were lowest in self-confidence were at increased risk of engaging in blame conformity. The theoretical underpinnings of these effects are considered.     

Explaining Dosage Diffusion During Hot Spot Patrols: An Application of Optimal Foraging Theory to Police Officer Behavior

Drawing from the concepts of optimal foraging theory, this paper presents and tests the assumptions of a foraging theory of police behavior during hot spots patrols. The theory explains why, over time, officers involved in hot spots policing interventions would leave the hot spots they are assigned to police and begin working within other locations. We test what factors influence the amounts of activity that officers undertake outside of their assigned hot spots and at nearby streets using data gathered as part of the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment. Officers performed more activity outside of their beats as the experiment progressed. Several theoretically relevant variables predict the level of activity that officers perform outside their beats, including the size of the target area and the amounts of crime occurring within and outside of the target area. “Dosage diffusion” might be one reason why hot spot interventions have diminishing effects over time. From an optimal foraging theory perspective, hot spots requiring police officers to constrain their actions to pre-defined areas can be perceived as counter-intuitive by the officers, especially over extended periods of time. The results of this study support the suggestion that hot spots patrols should be short-term and randomly rotated across hot spots.     

A mountain or a molehill: is the illicit trade in cigarettes undermining tobacco control policy in South Africa?

This study estimates the size of the market for illicit cigarettes in South Africa between 1997 and 2007 in order to consider the impact of the illicit trade in cigarettes on the effectiveness of tobacco control policies. Estimates of the illicit market are made using data on smoking prevalence and simulations of smoking intensity. The paper shows that the size of the illicit market to have grown substantially from 1997 until peaking in 2000 between 9.4% and 11.5% of the total market. The most recent estimate for 2007 suggests that the illicit market occupied between 7.0% and 11.2% of the total market. These estimates are significantly lower than the anecdotal claims of the tobacco industry. Although the scale of the illicit market is significant it has not undermined tobacco control policy. Consumption in the total market, including both the illicit and legal market, has declined in size consistently. At the same time, tax revenue from higher excise taxes has offset the tax losses as a result of illicit trade.     

Perpetrators of sexual assault continuing to have sex with their victims following the initial assault: evidence for evolved reproductive strategies

Among a sample of college students, roughly 30% of the women and 12% of the men reported having been the victim of a sexual assault sometime in their lives. Of the assault victims, approximately 23% of both sexes stated that they had sexual intercourse with their assaulters on at least one subsequent occasion. Female victims of a completed sexual assault were significantly more likely to continue being sexually active with their assailants than were female victims who managed to block the assault, while no such difference was found for male victims. This would imply that some men are using assaultive tactics to secure sex partners beyond a single sexual episode, thereby enhancing their potential reproductive success in evolutionary terms. Also, men who committed sexual assault reported having had more lifetime sex partners than did sexually experienced men with no sexual assault history. Overall, the idea that sexual assault is part of an evolved reproductive strategy is consistent with findings from this study.     

Conceptualizing and Measuring Ethnic Politics: An Institutional Complement to Demographic, Behavioral, and Cognitive Approaches

The influence of ??ethnic politics?? has been demonstrated in a range of empirical studies of economic growth, violence, and public goods provision. While others have raised concerns about the measurement of ethnic variables in these works, we seek to situate such discussions within a more thoroughgoing conceptual analysis. Specifically, we argue that four conceptual approaches??demographic, cognitive, behavioral, and institutional??have been used to develop theories in which the mechanism that relates causes to outcomes is ethnic political competition. Within this literature, we believe that institutional approaches have been relatively under-appreciated, and we attempt to address that imbalance. We begin by critically reviewing the three main ways in which ethnic variables have been specified and operationalized, delineating the assumptions and trade-offs underlying their use. Next, we describe an institutional approach to the study of ethnic politics, which focuses on the rules and procedures for differentiating ethnic categories. We propose some new indices based on this latter approach that might be developed and used in future research. Subsequently, we analyze the relationship between each of these approaches and patterns of ethnic political competition in a set of six country cases, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses, as well as theoretical links between them.