What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect?

The effect of population subdivision on estimated match probabilities has been raised [Nature 339 (1989) 501; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 48 (1991) 819; Science 254 (1991) 1921]. Previous work [J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 319; J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 988; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 55 (1994) 533] has compared product rule estimates from differing databases and found that the "subpopulation" error may be of the order of a factor of 10. This approach compares an estimate with an estimate. This paper uses simulation to extend these studies by allowing a comparison to a 'true match probability' and supports the conclusion that subpopulation effects are mild. In addition the performance of recommendations 4.1 and 4.2 of NRC II [National Research Council and C.O.D.F. Science, The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996].     

Comparison of the variables affecting the recovery of DNA from common drinking containers

As the boundaries of forensic DNA profiling continue to expand, less obvious sources of biological evidence are being collected at crime scenes for DNA profiling. One example is the recovery of biological evidence from common drink containers, such as bottles and cans, which have been found at crime scenes. There are many variables that may have an impact on recovering a DNA profile from such exhibits. In this research, the effects of person to person variation, time, type of drink (including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages), and type of drink container, were assessed for their impact on the major analytical outcomes of the DNA process. The results show that the alpha-amylase activity varies from individual to individual and is reduced in the presence of some alcoholic drinks. A reasonable DNA yield was obtained from all samples, however, the concentrations exhibited significant person to person variation. The type of drink container influenced the DNA yield with cans giving a higher yield than bottles of the same drink type. To a reduced extent the presence or absence of alcohol affected the overall DNA yield and when partial or failed DNA profiles were produced they were more likely to be associated with alcoholic drinks than non-alcoholic drinks.     

Exploring “North” and “South” in post-Soviet Bishkek: discourses and perceptions of rural-urban migration

In this paper we explore, through the narratives and perspectives of “old residents” in post-Soviet Bishkek, the dominant discourse which has emerged towards rural migrants arriving to the city from other areas of Kyrgyzstan from the late Soviet period onwards. We investigate the existence of a primarily “antagonistic” discourse in relation to the migrants and analyze this in detail to understand how it illuminates wider concerns amongst residents about what is occurring in their city, and about wider processes of social change in Kyrgyzstan. The paper provides a revealing insight into the processes of urban change in post-Soviet Central Asia, and demonstrates the ways in which confrontation with the everyday harsh realities of post-Soviet transformation can lead to the negative “othering” of one group of urban residents by another. We also demonstrate how the “old residents'” perceptions of migrants reveal important insights into emerging notions and constructions of identity in the post-Soviet period, related in this case to understandings of “North” and “South'1 The terms “North” and “South” are used here to denote the “North” and “South” of Kyrgyzstan. Talas, Naryn, Issyk-Kul' and Chuy regions (where the regional and national capital Bishkek is located) are usually taken as “North”, whereas Osh, Batken and Dzhalal-Abad regions are taken as “South.” View all notes and related concepts of what is “urban” and what is “Kyrgyz”.     

Stirred,Shaken, or Blended

Abstract

Research documents the variation in levels of offending and the official response to boys' and girls' misbehavior (see Chesney-Lind & Sheldon 2004 for a nice summary of this work). Our research questions develop from this literature. We first expect differences in girls and boys at intake to a residential program for low-to-medium risk offenders, and then we also expect differences in official responses to girls and boys during their aftercare experience. Our findings confirm the literature—girls and boys differ in seriousness of committing offenses. Additionally, girls and boys are treated differently during their time in juvenile justice programming. For example, girls are monitored more closely than boys and receive less serious penalties for similar levels of rule violations. We find no difference between boys and girls in their odds of receiving a serious sanction. While traditional theoretical attempts to explain girls' misbehavior are often described with the expression “add women and stir,” our findings suggest that both behavior of and official response to boys' and girls' activities show that girls are not simply stirred into the male mix but are responded to differently than boys and in ways that illustrate conventional gender socialization.     

Mothers Facing Imprisonment: Arranging Care for Their Adolescent Children

Although the population of imprisoned mothers is increasing, little formal data have been gathered about their dependents. This article draws on data from a study that examined the impact of maternal incarceration on 20 adolescent children in Victoria, Australia, focusing specifically on how and what care arrangements were made for the children and the implications of this care. Findings show a number of supportive and hindering factors that influence the making of care arrangements, including the support of another adult who enabled the woman in her role as mother, mothers' realistic outlook, and subsequent behaviors. Even where there were chronic problems, such as substance use, with a balance of supportive factors, these women were able to make reasonable and stable care arrangements for their children.     

Assessment of walkway tribometer readings in evaluating slip resistance: a gait-based approach

The purpose of this study was to assess the viability of using slip risk (as quantified during human subject walking trials) to create a reference standard against which tribometer readings could be compared. First, human subjects (N=84) were used to rank objectively the slipperiness of three different surfaces with and without a contaminant (six conditions). Second, nine tribometers were used to independently measure and rank surface slipperiness for all six conditions. The slipperiness ranking determined from the walking trials was considered the reference against which the tribometer measurements were compared. Our results revealed that only two of the nine tribometers tested (Tortus II and Mark III) met our compliance criteria by both correctly ranking all six conditions and differentiating between surfaces of differing degrees of slipperiness. These findings reinforce the need for objective criteria to ascertain which tribometers effectively evaluate floor slipperiness and a pedestrian's risk of slipping.     

The Organized Irresponsibility Principle and Risk Arbitrage

In an age of accelerating wealth at the very top and accelerating risks at the bottom, there is a clear disjunction between the flow of social benefits and social damages produced by different actors and their share of these respective benefits and damages. Yet, the specific processes that generate the dualization of tracks of accumulation of rewards or accumulation of risks and precarity are still up for debate. In tackling this dual process in a way that is attuned to the critical contribution of contemporary forms of the law to this uneven accumulation of wealth and of risks, this paper focuses on organized irresponsibility—where individuals can cumulatively contribute to risks, but avoid individual culpability—and how relations of organized irresponsibility provide extensive opportunities for risk arbitrage. Risk arbitrage is correspondingly a process where actors, whether it be individuals or larger organizations, can produce social risk, appropriate benefit from these risks, and disproportionately avoid the consequences of the risks so as to benefit from the overall “cycle of reward and risk”—even if society as a whole is worse off. The paper identifies organized irresponsibility as fundamentally undergirded by mismatches between existing configurations of law and the existing complexity of the processes of the production of social goods and risks. This paper proceeds to show how gaps in the law enable the organized irresponsibility principle—that given a level of risk production, the greater the number of actors involved and the greater complexity between causes and the risk’s impacts, the less overall culpability that tends to be assigned. It then shows how the organized irresponsibility principle enables relationships of risk arbitrage that intensify contemporary risk and inequality.     

Students’ Feelings of Safety,Exposure to Violence and Victimization,and Authoritative School Climate

Although many students feel unsafe at school, few malleable factors have been identified to increase students’ feelings of safety. Drawing on criminological behavior control theories, this study posits authoritative school climate as one such factor. With data from two nationally representative datasets, this study uses path analysis to examine the relationship between authoritative school climate and feelings of safety, as well as the extent to which this relation is explained by exposure to violence and victimization. Across both datasets, a more authoritative school climate was associated with increased feelings of safety at school. Both models also indicated that this relationship was explained in part by reduced exposure to violence and victimization, although the strength of this indirect effect varied across models. These findings suggest that strengthening students’ relationships with adults and increasing the fairness and consistency of rules in the school may both reduce exposure to violence and victimization and help students feel safer at school.     

Litigation Versus Legislation: Forum Shopping by Rent Seekers

To change the law, an interest group must choose between lobbyingthe legislature and litigating for new precedent. Lobbyingbecomes more likely as the relative benefits from rule changebecome greater, as the costs of lobbying become smaller and asthe voting strength of the interest groups becomes larger.Litigating becomes more likely as trial costs fall, as therelative benefits from rule change become greater, as theinclination of courts to change existing precedents increases,and as the interest group is involved in more trials. Examplesof using a litigating strategy include the NAACP is its battlefor racial integration and attorneys seeking change in tort law.Business, in resisting changes to tort law, has used the judicialprocess. The nature of equilibrium, if any, is not clear.