Letting the good times roll: A theory of voter inference and experimental evidence

This paper examines inference and attribution in a simple and ubiquitous strategic situation: a voter is faced with discerning whether a leader worked on his or her behalf after observing an informative, but noisy signal about the leader's performance. We characterize perfect Bayesian equilibria, quantal response equilibria (QRE), and provide a simple model of a heuristic-based approach, referred to as strategic naivete, within a wide class of such environments. We also discuss experiments conducted to examine human behavior within such an environment. While it is clear that the observed behavior is inconsistent with perfect Bayesian equilibrium, distinguishing between QRE and strategic naivete will require further work. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of probabilistic and/or heuristic-based attribution processes for electoral politics and political economy.     

The effects of state policy design features on take-up and crowd-out rates for the State Children's Health Insurance Program.

We evaluate the effects of state policy design features on SCHIP take-up rates and on the degree to which SCHIP benefits crowd out private benefits. The results indicate overall program take-up rates of approximately 10 percent. However, there is considerable heterogeneity across states, suggesting a potential role of inter-state variation in policy design. We find that several design mechanisms have significant and substantial positive effects on take-up. For example, eliminating asset tests, offering continuous coverage, simplifying the application and renewal processes, and extending benefits to parents all have sizable and positive effects on take-up rates. Mandatory waiting periods, on the other hand, consistently reduce take-up rates. In all, inter-state differences in outreach and anti-crowd-out efforts explain roughly one-quarter of the cross-state variation in take-up rates. Concerning the crowding out of private health insurance benefits, we find that between one-quarter and one-third of the increase in public health insurance coverage for SCHIP-eligible children is offset by a decline in private health coverage. We find little evidence that the policy-induced variation in take-up is associated with a significant degree of crowd out, and no evidence that the negative effect on private coverage caused by state policy choices is any greater than the overall crowding-out effect. This suggests that states are not augmenting take-up rates by enrolling children that are relatively more likely to have private health insurance benefits.     

Problem boys in young adulthood: Teachers' ratings and twelve-year follow-up

In an earlier paper we reported that teachers' ratings of child guidance clinic children were associated with the children's global adjustment in young adulthood. Teachers' ratings, especially the peer relations measure, far surpassed other data sources in predicting general adult mental status. Other sources were developmental history, social history, family information, and psychiatric and psychological evaluations. The purposes of the present investigation were to evaluate mother-son reliability on adulthood information, and to determine whether teacher-rated behaviors of clinic boys predicted specific adult behaviors or were only globally related. Interviewed separately when sons were young adults, mothers and sons closely agreed on sons' adult behavior, with mothers somewhat underreporting sons' negative behaviors. The major finding was that one teacher-rated item,fails to get along with other children, was closely associated with a wide spectrum of adult behaviors. This was not due to the peer relations indicator serving as a global statistic reflecting general childhood impairment. It was also found that composite scores of childhood and adulthood bad conduct were significantly related to each other.Data collection was funded by NIMH Grant #MH-23441-02A1, and by the William T. Grant Foundation, Loretta K. Cass, Principal Investigator. The authors bear sole responsibility for the data analyses and interpretation presented here.Received Ph.D. from University of Oklahoma. Current research interests are in prediction of adult mental status from childhood indexes.Received Ph.D. from Washington University. Current research interests are in life history research, particularly alcoholism and schizophrenia.Received B. A. from Washington University.     

Detection of a primer-binding site polymorphism for the STR locus D16S539 using the Powerplex 1.1 system and validation of a degenerate primer to correct for the polymorphism

Quality assurance samples submitted from the NCSBI as part of a contract with TBTG to outsource DNA Database samples showed unexpected discrepancies for the locus D16S539 when all other loci yielded identical results. Discrepancies observed included allele drop out and an imbalance in sister alleles with samples returned from TBTG. This led to a comprehensive review of the technical procedures used between the two laboratories to determine the cause of the discrepancies noted for the locus D16S539, since both laboratories were using the PowerPlex 1.1 typing kit from the Promega Corporation. The NCSBI and the TBTG utilize different extraction methods (organic extraction vs. FTA) and amplification conditions (AmpliTaq vs AmpliTaq Gold), respectively, so the exact cause of discrepancy observed was not immediately apparent. Experiments at the NCSBI associated the observed allele drop out and the imbalance of the sister alleles with the use of AmpliTaq Gold and a hot start procedure. Sequencing data revealed that a point mutation resides on the D16S539 primer-binding site that reaches polymorphic levels in African-American populations. This led to the development of a degenerate primer by the Promega Corporation to detect "missing" alleles when AmpliTaq Gold is used. The degenerate primer was then thoroughly tested to show its efficacy in detecting the "true" D16S539 profile when used.     

Skin penetration assessment of less lethal kinetic energy munitions

The development of less-lethal technologies has provided law enforcement personnel with an alternative to lethal force. Although the less lethal projectile was produced to engender non-penetrating wounds, case studies show that there have been a number of reported penetrating injuries ranging from minor to significant in morbidity. The objective of this study was to determine the energy per unit area required to penetrate various regions of the body. Eight unembalmed postmortem human specimens were procured for this testing. Each specimen sustained a maximum of 25 impacts consisting of shots to the anterior and posterior thorax, abdomen, and legs. A 12-gauge, fin-stabilized, rubber rocket round was used as the impactor for all of the conducted tests. The energy density required for 50% risk of penetration varied from 23.99 J/cm2 for the location on the anterior rib (p = 0.000) to 52.74 J/cm2 for the location on the posterior rib (p = 0.001).     

Who Said What? The Effects of Source Cues in Issue Frames

Drawing on previous research concerning the role that source cues play in political information processing, we examine whether an ideological identity match between the source of a framed message and the respondent moderates framing effects. We test our hypotheses in two experiments concerning attitudes toward a proposed rally by the Ku Klux Klan. In Experiment 1 (N = 274), we test our hypothesis in a simple issue framing experiment. We find that framing effects occur for strong identifiers only when there is a match between the ideology of the speaker and respondent. In Experiment 2 (N = 259), we examine whether matched frames resonate equally well when individuals are simultaneously exposed to competing frames. The results from this experiment provide mixed support for our hypotheses. The results from our studies suggest that identity matching is an important factor to consider in future framing research.     

Providing Foster Care for Adolescents: Barriers and Opportunities

This study used quantitative and qualitative data from a larger research project regarding foster parent experiences to examine the characteristics that predict a parent’s willingness to foster an adolescent. Data collected from closed- and open-ended items related to reasons for not fostering a teen were also analyzed. Findings suggest parents who are older and were a foster child themselves, increased the likelihood they would foster a teen. When discussing reasons for not fostering an adolescent, parents identified fears of problem behaviors and concerns about negative impact on other children; findings that were corroborated in responses to the open-ended comments.     

what became of ‘frontline feminism’? a retro-perspective on post-conflict Belfast

A feminist stock-taking on ‘post-conflict’, this paper revisits a study made by the author in 1996–1997, when the women’s community sector was a lively actor in the processes leading to the Good Friday Peace Agreement of 1998. Refusing to observe sectarian conflict lines, women’s centres were re-writing official ‘community development’ policy as community empowerment and political challenge. The author draws on new interviews conducted in 2012 with feminist community activists of that earlier period of ‘frontline feminism’, associated with the Belfast Women’s Support Network. The women reveal how continuing poverty, discrimination, violence and unhealed trauma still characterise working-class life in the post-conflict period, and impede the integration of Protestant and Catholic communities. Official provisions for gender equality have been interpreted in gender-neutral ways, and in some cases turned against women. The demilitarisation of masculinity has been painfully slow. The women’s community sector has experienced a loss of political drive as women’s centres have become service providers, dependent on state funding. Feminism is renewing itself, but in fresh forms with different priorities. Will it recover a voice that ‘speaks truth to power’?