Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.     

Seasonal patterns of arthropods occurring on sheltered and unsheltered pig carcasses in Buenos Aires Province (Argentina)

Differences in the succession of insects and other Arthropoda (invertebrate animals with jointed legs), on domestic pig carcasses placed under a roof and under the open sky have been studied in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina (latitude 34 degrees 45'S) in all the seasons of the year. Faunal associations proved different for each treatment in winter: the common bluebottle Calliphora vicina was found in both, but on the sheltered carcass Cochliomyia macellaria and the rare Phaenicia cluvia were found as well. In the fall, the difference between sheltered and unsheltered carcasses was small (six species on the former and five species on the latter); in spring and summer, the difference was negligible.     

What is the best sample for determining the early postmortem period by on-the-spot flow cytometry analysis?

The level of degradation of DNA as a means for determining the time of death has been proposed as a valid adjunct to the classic thanatochronologic methods. The twofold aim of this work was to determine which organ might reveal both a correlation between the percentage of degradation of the DNA and the time lapse since death, and would be easiest to sample and yield the most reproducible results even in technically unfavorable situations such as on-the-spot investigations at the scene of death. A comparison of the spleen, blood, and liver showed that hepatic tissue best meets these specific needs because it shows a virtually linear correlation between the time elapsed since death and the level of degradation of the DNA, and it can easily be sampled at the scene of death by use of a common biopsy needle.     

Identification of impurities and statistical classification of methamphetamine tablets (Ya-Ba) seized in Thailand

Impurity profiles of methamphetamine tablets seized in Thailand have been investigated. The samples are extracted with small amounts of ethyl acetate under alkaline condition and the extracts are analyzed by capillary gas chromatography. Nine compounds (1,2-dimethyl-3-phenylaziridine, ephedrine, methylephedrine, N-formylmethamphetamine, N-acetylmethamphetamine, N-formylephedrine, N-acetylephedrine, N,O-diacetylephedrie, methamphetamine dimer) are identified as impurities in methamphetamine tablet. Caffeine and ethyl vanillin are also detected as diluents and/or adulterants, and acetylcodeine monoacetylmorphine and diacetylmorphine are contained in many samples. In addition, trans-3,4-dimethyl-5-phenyl-2-oxazolidone is newly found as an impurity. For characterization and comparison of methamphetamine tablet exhibits, intensely and commonly detectable nine peaks are selected as the factor for multivariate analysis. The procedures reported here permit classification of 250 analyzed exhibits into five groups and characterization of classified groups.     

Injury pattern in fatal automobile accident passengers due to rear-end collisions

The article reports on the injury pattern seen in fatally wounded car passengers after rear-end collisions on motorways. The study material included 5 rear-end collisions, in which 9 car occupants (5 drivers and 4 front-seat passengers) were killed. The change in velocity (delta v) was above 60 km/h in all the reported cases. The injury pattern showed the following characteristics: extensive soft-tissue traumatization (subcutaneous haematomas, blood-filled pockets, "décollements") not discernible from outside on the back of the trunk, mostly in the lumbosacral region; dorsal serial rib fractures, often combined with fractures of the spine (including the sacrum and the coccyx) and/or the pelvis; ruptures of the aorta at the typical sites of predisposition; ruptures of the liver and spleen (particularly at the visceral surfaces).     

Fatal inhalation of butane-propane gas

Fatal intoxications with butane and/or propane are rare although the inhalation of such liquid gases in order to induce hallucinations is not uncommon amongst youngsters, the number of which is difficult to evaluate. Thus the possibility of gas intoxication should be taken into consideration in all cases of unclear death of youngsters, in which case the macroscopic and histological findings will be unspecific whereas the chemical-toxicological analyses, especially of the native brain, lung and liver tissue, lead to definite conclusions.