Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.     

Revising the Factor Structure of the Juror Bias Scale: A Method for the Empirical Validation of Theoretical Constructs

The application of factor analytic techniques to explore the construct and predictive validity of a popular scale used for the identification of pretrial juror bias is herein reported. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was employed on the Juror Bias Scale (JBS) scores of 301 participants, but empirical findings did not support the theoretically derived single-factor scales of Probability of Commission and Reasonable Doubt. Empirically driven alternative models were generated using exploratory factor analysis. The JBS scores of an additional 301 participants were then employed to cross-validate the initial findings using nested modeling CFA. The empirical model achieved a significantly improved fit over the theoretical model and resulted in the elimination of approximately 30% of the original items with no attenuation in the scale's ability to predict juror verdicts. Moreover, a theoretical reorganization of the items was consistent with the empirically derived model and provided a rationale for altering the scoring of the JBS which, in turn, maximized its predictive validity. The use of CFA techniques to aid in the development of scales assessing jury attitudes and biases is discussed.     

Elder abuse detection in nursing facilities: using paid clinical competence to address the nation's shame

Each year, five million senior citizens are the victims of abuse in our country-and that figure is a likely underestimate. In California alone, it is estimated that over 225,000 seniors are abused annually. Nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to abuse, with one-fifth to one-third of these institutions cited for abusive activities that result in actual harm. Regular violations of minimum care regulations by nursing homes have been documented in every state. Despite legal protections, as a practical matter, the review, assessment, and investigation of nursing home care and potential senior abuse is the primary responsibility of voluntary ombudsmen. These volunteers are responsible for regular visits and determination of nursing home quality and resident treatment. This Article contends that, despite their commitment to the cause, voluntary ombudsmen are not a sufficient cure for the scourge of elder abuse. Rather, clinically-trained personnel with legal knowledge must assume the role that lay volunteer ombudsmen are inappropriately expected to play. Use of clinical case managers, who have expertise in assessing clinical factors and can be trained in legal matters, offers significant potential to assist in the detection, and, further, reporting and prosecution of elder abuse. The author concludes that only through use of those with appropriate training and knowledge can the epidemic of elder abuse be effectively addressed.     

The Court of Public Opinion: Lay Perceptions of Polygraph Testing

We sampled a total of 411 participants and randomly assigned them one of three brief trial vignettes that contained either no-polygraph evidence, evidence of a passed polygraph test, or evidence of a failed polygraph test. Participants rendered guilt judgments and answered a series of questions concerning the trial in particular, and polygraph tests in general. Similar to previous studies on the impact of polygraph evidence on jurors' guilt judgments, this sample of jury-eligible adults indicated that they did not find polygraph test evidence to be persuasive. Moreover, it mattered little to participants whether the results indicated the defendant passed a polygraph test, or that he failed a polygraph test. However, when our findings are compared to those of previous surveys involving experts in the field of psychophysiology, they differ in a number of important respects. The implications for decisions regarding admissibility (e.g., U.S. v. Alexander, 1975 and U.S. v. Scheffer, 1998) are discussed.     

Reviews

Raymond H. Garthoff, The Great Transition: American‐Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War. Washington, DC: Brookings Books, 1994, 834 pp., $44.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

Nicholas Barr (ed.), Labor Markets and Social Policy in Central and Eastern Europe. New York: Oxford University Press/World Bank, 1994, xviii + 387 pp., $19.95 p/b.

E. A. Rees, Stalinism and Soviet Rail Transport, 1928–41. London and Basingstoke: Macmillan Press, 1995, xiii + 307 pp., £45.00.

William J. Tompson, Khrushchev: A Political Life. Macmillan in association with St Antony's College, Oxford, 1994, ix + 341 pp., £25.00.

David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy 1939–1956. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994, xvi + 464 pp., £19.95.

Joseph L. Wieczynski (ed.), Operation Barbarossa: The German Attack on the Soviet Union, June 22, 1941. Salt Lake City: Charles Schlacks, Jr. Publisher, 1993, v + 339 pp.

Keith Sword, Deportation and Exile: Poles in the Soviet Union, 1939–48. London and Basingstoke: Macmillan Press, 1994, xiii + 269 pp., £45.00.

Andrew Baruch Wachtel, An Obsession with History. Russian Writers Confront the Past. Stanford: Stanford University Press (available, outside North America, from Cambridge University Press), 1994, viii + 276 pp.

Beatrice Glatzer Rosenthal (ed.), Nietzsche and Soviet Culture: Ally and Adversary, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994, xvi + 421 pp.

Max Weber, The Russian Revolutions, trans, and ed. Gordon C. Wells & Peter Baehr, Cambridge, Polity, 1994, viii + 287 pp., £39.50.     

Book reviews

Tedium or clarification in the study of international relations: the Plethora of “hegemonic decline” works among American scholars

Theodore Geiger, The Future of the International System: The United States and the World Political Economy, Allen and Unwin, Boston and London, 1988, 190pp, £8.95 pbk.

David P. Calleo, Beyond American Hegemony: The Future of the Western Alliance, Basic Books, Inc., New York and Wheatsheaf, London, 1987, 288pp, £16.95.

Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, Random House, New York, 1987, 677pp, $24.95.

Robert Nisbet, The Present Age: Progress and Anarchy in Modern America, Harper & Row, New York, London and Sydney, 1988, 145pp, $17.95.

Allan Bloom, The Closing of the American Mind, Simon and Schuster, Inc., New York, London and Sydney, 1988, 392pp, $7.95 pbk.

Robert O'Neill and David N. Schwartz (eds), Hedley Bull on Arms Control, Macmillan/IISS, 1987, £27.50.