The probative character of Forensic Handwriting Examiners’ identification and elimination opinions on questioned signatures

This 5-year study investigated the character of Forensic Handwriting Examiners’ (FHEs) authorship opinions on questioned signatures through the medium of blind validation trials. Twenty-nine thousand eight hundred and eleven authorship opinions were expressed by FHEs on trial kits comprising randomized questioned genuine signatures (written by the specimen writer), disguised signatures (written by the specimen writer) and simulated signatures (not written by the specimen writer). Results showed that, as a group, FHEs were significantly more confident at identifying writers’ genuine signatures than identifying writers’ disguised signatures or eliminating specimen writers from having authored simulated signatures. It is proposed that the difference in FHE confidence arises from the difficulty they have in deciding which alternative authorship explanation accounts for perceived combinations of similar and dissimilar features between specimen and questioned signatures.     

Profiling of the public‐service élite: A demographic and career trajectory survey of deputy and assistant deputy ministers in Canada

Abstract: In the summer of 2006, a survey was sent to the 941 senior public administration executives who held the rank and title of deputy minister or assistant deputy minister in the federal, ten provincial and three territorial jurisdictions in Canada. The survey explored, among other variables, age, education, gender, ethno‐racial status, aboriginal background and career trajectory. The response rate to this survey was 43.61 per cent. Obviously those in the deputy/assistant deputy cadre (referred to in this article as the “public‐service élite,” or pse ) are important actors in the life of the Canadian state, but relatively little is known about them. The authors report on and analyse the meaning and significance of their findings not only for a Canadian perspective but also, on the value of such research in the broader comparative sense. Their data also allow the examination of various dimensions of representative bureaucracy at the most senior levels in Canada. Sommaire: Au cours de l'été 2006, un sondage sous forme de questionnaire a été envoyé aux 941 cadres supérieurs de la fonction publique qui occupaient des postes de sous‐ministres ou de sous‐ministres adjoints au gouvernement fédéral, au gouvernement des dix provinces et des trois territoires du Canada. Le sondage portait, entre autres variables, sur l'âge, l'éducation, le sexe, le statut ethno‐racial, les origines autochtones et la trajectoire de carrière. Le taux de réponse à ce sondage a été de 43,61 pour cent. Évidemment, les personnes qui occupent les postes de sous‐ministres et de sous‐ministres adjoints (désignés dans le présent article sous le nom d' «élite de la fonction publique» ou «éfp ») sont des acteurs importants dans la vie de l'État canadien, mais on les connaît assez peu. Les auteurs donnent un compte rendu et font une analyse de la signification et de 1'importance des résultats, non seulement pour avoir une perspective canadienne, mais aussi pour voir la valeur d'une telle recherche à des fins de comparaison plus vaste. Leurs données permettent également d'examiner diverses dimensions de la bureaucratie représentative aux niveaux les plus élevés du Canada.     

Standing Tiebout on his Head: Tax Capitalization and the Monopoly Power of Local Governments

Unlike other governmental units, statelottery agencies publicly acknowledge thattheir primary objective is revenuemaximization. This claim and the inherentmonopoly power of lottery agencies providesa unique arena to test for Leviathan. Withdata obtained from United States' lotterygames, I perform a Laffer curve analysis toderive the optimal lottery tax rates fordifferent categories of games. Theseoptimal tax rates and Monte Carlosimulations are then used to test whetherthe current tax structure of lottery gamesis indeed the revenue maximizing structure. I find strong empirical evidence for the``Leviathan Lottery''.     

Racial and ethnic bias in decisions to shoot seen through a stronger lens: experimental results from high-fidelity laboratory simulations

Background

Research on racial bias in the United States includes findings that Americans tend to view blacks as more dangerous than whites. Some have argued that this bias provides a likely explanation for the disproportionate number of ethnic and racial minorities shot by police. One piece of evidence for this proposition comes from experimental work in which research participants push “shoot” or “don’t shoot” buttons when still images of people and objects that may or may not be weapons are presented in rapid succession. These studies have established that participants tend to subconsciously pair black individuals with weapons and white individuals with neutral objects. However, it is not clear from these studies that the subconscious racial bias identified by researchers affects actual decisions to shoot, perhaps because the techniques used to assess the bias-shooting link bear so little resemblance to real-world shootings.

Methods

This paper reports on the results of a novel laboratory experiment designed to overcome this critical limitation by using high-fidelity deadly force judgment and decision-making simulators to assess both subconscious and behavioral bias among 48 research participants, recruited from the general population.

Results

Study results suggest that subconscious associations between race and threat exhibited by participants are not linked to their shooting behavior.

Conclusions

The implications of this finding for understanding how race and ethnicity affect decisions to shoot, and for conducting empirical research on this important topic, are discussed.     

Religious parties and the problem of democratic political legitimacy

Thinkers committed to an ideal of public reason are suspicious of religiously informed political activity as it undermines democratic political legitimacy. This paper considers Jürgen Habermas’s recent shifts on this question in light of the history of Europe’s religious parties in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. These parties made a real and lasting contribution to Europe’s democratization and their history suggests ways in which Habermas and other defenders of public reason misunderstand the nature of democratic political legitimacy.     

Making Connections: Performance Regimes and Extreme Events

Local officials in the emergency management field have reached out and increased their connections with other agencies and organizations during the past several years. Collaborative networks have been created in an effort to address the complexities and uncertainties surrounding extreme events. But has this collaboration really taken root? In this article, the authors find that although a collaborative ethos has penetrated local emergency management, it is neither deep nor uniform. Data from a survey of emergency managers in North Carolina counties show that maintaining a functional network—a performance regime in which participants develop consistent management practices and rely on each other for the generation of new ideas—is a difficult task. The explanation for the variation found across the counties largely involves capacity and vulnerability.