Performance Study of a Score‐based Likelihood Ratio System for Forensic Fingermark Comparison

In this article, the performance of a score‐based likelihood ratio (LR) system for comparisons of fingerprints with fingermarks is studied. The system is based on an automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS) comparison algorithm and focuses on fingerprint comparisons where the fingermarks contain 6–11 minutiae. The hypotheses under consideration are evaluated at the level of the person, not the finger. The LRs are presented with bootstrap intervals indicating the sampling uncertainty involved. Several aspects of the performance are measured: leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is applied, and rates of misleading evidence are studied in two ways. A simulation study is performed to study the coverage of the bootstrap intervals. The results indicate that the evidential strength for same source comparisons that do not meet the Dutch twelve‐point standard may be substantial. The methods used can be generalized to measure the performance of score‐based LR systems in other fields of forensic science.     

Specific Patterns of Canine Scavenging in Indoor Settings

Postmortem animal mutilations due to domestic dogs in isolated domestic deaths are taphonomic modifications regularly observed by forensic pathologists. They are rarely described in the literature; however, even though they present specific patterns. Through 41 cases, 10 at the forensic institute in Lille (France) and 31 at the New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner (USA), plus 22 cases from the literature, specific locations and patterns of postmortem scavenging lesions are proposed. These lesions are mainly distributed in three locations: the face, especially the nose and the mouth (73.1%), the neck (43.1%), and the arm (shoulder/upper limb [29.2%], hand [26.8%]). We discuss the time span between death and scavenging, the consequences on identification, and comparison with outdoor settings. Outdoor scavenging lesions are mainly located on the trunk and limbs usually sparing the head, which strongly differs from indoor distribution and imply different animal motivations.     

In Vitro Effects of Household Products on Calliphoridae Larvae Development: Implication for Forensic Entomology

Several parameters can delay the first arrival of flies on a corpse and the subsequent development of the larvae. This study focuses on the development of Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) (Meigen, 1826) on household chemical‐contaminated substrates. bleach, perfume, hydrochloric acid, caustic soda, insecticide, mosquito repellent, and gasoline in quantities consistent with an amount that could possibly be spilled on a corpse were mixed with beef liver to simulate contaminated fleshes. Larvae were bred at 25°C on these media until emergence. Four developmental parameters were followed: survival rates, development times, sex ratios, and adult sizes. Hydrochloric acid, insecticide, and gasoline killed all larvae. In low quantities, caustic soda and mosquito repellent increased the development time and decreased the adult size. However, high quantities of these chemicals killed all larvae. Lastly, bleach and perfume did not affect the survival rate and barely impacted the development time or adult size. These results demonstrate common household products spilled on a corpse can strongly affect the development of Calliphoridae larvae. The effects of such products should be considered in forensic entomology cases.     

Consensus on validation of forensic voice comparison

Since the 1960s, there have been calls for forensic voice comparison to be empirically validated under casework conditions. Since around 2000, there have been an increasing number of researchers and practitioners who conduct forensic-voice-comparison research and casework within the likelihood-ratio framework. In recent years, this community of researchers and practitioners has made substantial progress toward validation under casework conditions becoming a standard part of practice: Procedures for conducting validation have been developed, along with graphics and metrics for representing the results, and an increasing number of papers are being published that include empirical validation of forensic-voice-comparison systems under conditions reflecting casework conditions. An outstanding question, however, is: In the context of a case, given the results of an empirical validation of a forensic-voice-comparison system, how can one decide whether the system is good enough for its output to be used in court? This paper provides a statement of consensus developed in response to this question. Contributors included individuals who had knowledge and experience of validating forensic-voice-comparison systems in research and/or casework contexts, and individuals who had actually presented validation results to courts. They also included individuals who could bring a legal perspective on these matters, and individuals with knowledge and experience of validation in forensic science more broadly. We provide recommendations on what practitioners should do when conducting evaluations and validations, and what they should present to the court. Although our focus is explicitly on forensic voice comparison, we hope that this contribution will be of interest to an audience concerned with validation in forensic science more broadly. Although not written specifically for a legal audience, we hope that this contribution will still be of interest to lawyers.     

Setting the Public Sphere in Motion: The Rhetoric of Political Bumper Stickers in Israel

Most members of the public have little opportunity to express political opinions via a mass medium. Political automobile bumper stickers provide such a possibility and can constitute a revival of Habermas's notion of the public sphere. This article examines how such bumper stickers function in the case of Israel, where political bumper stickers have become a ubiquitous medium of communication, expressing complex national-ideological messages that reflect individual opinions on a mass scale. Four elements have combined to bring about the development of this openly accessible political medium for the expression of public opinion: Israel's volatile political situation, a cultural predisposition to verbal expression on political topics, dramatic changes in the communication climate, and the particular status of cars and attitudes toward driving in the country. This mobile rhetoric has been used to set the public sphere in motion, reflecting five factors that account for the dynamism of the medium: the physical circulation of the messages on cars; the dialogic interaction and renegotiation of previously established ideological premises; the reflection, introduction, and maintenance of topics on the public agenda; the taking of power by the people; and the performative act of public expression.     

Larval-mass effect: Characterisation of heat emission by necrophageous blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) larval aggregates

Numerous Calliphoridae species larvae are necrophageous and develop on animal cadavers. During the feeding stages, a strong gregarious behaviour leads to the formation of large larval masses, allowing larvae to share digestive fluids. Furthermore, a mass of larvae emits heat, resulting in a local increase of temperature. Differences greater than 20°C between ambient and larval mass temperatures have already been observed, and the temperature of the mass can reach 50°C. Thus, larvae could benefit from this increased local temperature to speed up their development. This study focuses on the dynamic and characterisation of heat emission by Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) (Meigen, 1826) larval masses. Experiments were performed under controlled conditions using several ambient temperatures and different numbers of larvae. Results indicate that heat emission depends on the instar and is strongly affected by available amount of food. Furthermore, according to the experimental data, the heat emission is also relative to the weight of the larval mass, the larvae number and the local temperature. These results also demonstrate that optimum ambient-temperature values ranging between 22°C and 25°C produce maximal heat-emission per larva. Furthermore, a feedback loop, involving heat exchanges and physiological and behavioural thermoregulation processes, appears inside aggregates. In the context of forensic cases and post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation, these results indicate that heat emission can occur even with "small" masses if they are composed of high number of second stage larvae. Furthermore, particular attention should be paid on cases involving L. sericata larvae at ambient temperature ranging from 22°C to 25°C, which appears to maximise the heat-emission process.     

The Chávez vote and the national economy in Venezuela

Hugo Chávez has attracted considerable political support since his emergence on the Venezuela political scene. But what are the bases of this support? More specifically, is economic voting a significant component of his support? Through investigation of the 2010 LAPOP Barometer data, we estimate the various components of a Chávez vote model. In a series of logistic regression analyses, the weight of sets of explanatory variables is assessed, as well as the weight of the overall model. In particular, the role of the economy is carefully explored. First, is Chávez held accountable for the economy? Second, does his personal leadership image dominate his economic policy image? We find evidence of a significant economic voting component in popular support for Chávez, although several other explanatory variables also exert a substantial impact on it.     

Computation of likelihood ratios in fingerprint identification for configurations of three minutiae

Recent challenges to fingerprint evidence have brought forward the need for peer-reviewed scientific publications to support the evidential value assessment of fingerprint. This paper proposes some research directions to gather statistical knowledge of the within-source and between-sources variability of configurations of three minutiae on fingermarks and fingerprints. This paper proposes the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) approach to assess the value of fingerprint evidence. The model explores the statistical contribution of configurations of three minutiae using Tippett plots and related measures to assess the quality of the system. Features vectors used for statistical analysis have been obtained following a preprocessing step based on Gabor filtering and image processing to extract minutia position, type, and direction. Spatial relationships have been coded using Delaunay triangulation. The metric, used to assess similarity between two feature vectors is based on an Euclidean distance measure. The within-source variability has been estimated using a sample of 216 fingerprints from four fingers (two donors). Between-sources variability takes advantage of a database of 818 ulnar loops from randomly selected males. The results show that the data-driven approach adopted here is robust. The magnitude of LRs obtained under the prosecution and defense propositions stresses upon the major evidential contribution that small portions of fingermark, containing three minutiae, can provide regardless of its position on the general pattern.