Reflections on the Iraq War: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Our foreign policy elites, the press, our elected representatives and the general public internalize “lessons” from each war, although the lessons may be wrong or misapplied. How we arrive at such consensus lessons is a mystery. It is too early to predict what lessons from Iraq will guide future U.S. decision-making. But on the situation as it now stands, it is possible to make some broad generalizations concerning what went right in Iraq and what went wrong.     

U.S. Engagement in East Asia: A Case for ‘Track Two’ Diplomacy

As the Bush presidency draws to a close, the foreign policy community is taking stock of contemporary U.S.-Northeast Asian relations, assessing the challenges and opportunities that are likely to confront the next administration. China presents both in abundance, as reflected in ongoing tensions and misunderstandings in the Sino-American bilateral relationship. This article assesses the prospects for Washington to improve its relations with China through the mechanism of “track two” diplomacy. First, we expand on the track two concept by examining its main components and functions with illustrative examples. We extend the existing conceptualization of track two beyond its traditional conflict resolution functions and develop an account of it as a mechanism for policy coordination and the reorientation of regional dynamics from conflict to cooperation. Second, we identify major areas of U.S. interest in Northeast Asia and show how track two diplomacy might usefully be pursued within these contexts. Our analysis culminates with recommendations on how the Unites States should apply track two strategies in its relations with China.     

How Will We Fight?

In considering the question “How will we fight?”, this article begins by examining the threats we face from conventional, insurgent, and hybrid enemies as well as terrorists and super-empowered individuals. It then outlines how America can fight effectively against each threat—as well as identifying the deficiencies in our current force structure that will hinder that response. The analysis argues that America needs a well-balanced, medium-weight joint force. It then provides recommendations for each of the services, as well as special operations forces, to achieve that goal. It concludes by describing what is needed to insure our force is capable of the rapid innovation in wartime required of successful nations.     

Controlling coalitions: Social lending at the multilateral development banks

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) dramatically increased social lending for health, education, and safety nets after 1985. Yet the great powers’ social policy preferences remained relatively static from 1980 to 2000. This contradicts the conventional view that powerful states control IOs. We argue that highly institutionalized IOs like MDBs require a complete model of possible member-state coalitions encompassing the preferences of all member states—not just major powers. We develop multiple measures of state preferences and include all member states in our coalitional model. We evaluate our model and alternatives with an analysis of more than 10,000 MDB loans from 1980 to 2000. We find that when we include all member states weighted by their voting shares, principal preferences are significantly related to lending outcomes.     

The United States and the Promotion of Democracy in Latin America: Then, Now and Tomorrow

The United States has been deeply involved in Latin American affairs for over a century, but promoting democracy has only recently become a priority. The end of the Cold War presented a unique opportunity to provide greater support for democracy in the Western Hemisphere. This article examines the main multilateral and bilateral actions undertaken by the United States to promote democracy in Latin America in recent decades. It makes use of a newly available dataset that specifies the investment made on democracy in different countries and sectors between 1990 and 2005. It also addresses the challenges that the United States confronts in promoting democracy in the region at the current time and the possible scenarios for the near future.     

Geographic Representation in Party‐Dominated Legislatures: A Quantitative Text Analysis of Parliamentary Questions in the German Bundestag

Political representation in European democracies is widely considered partisan and collectivist. This article, however, stresses that there is more to the representative process in European democracies than just its textbook version. It emphasizes the role of geographic representation as a complementary strategy in party‐dominated legislatures that is characterized by two distinct features. First, legislators employ distinct opportunities to participate in legislative contexts to signal attention to geographic constituents without disrupting party unity. Second, these activities are motivated by individual‐ and district‐level characteristics that supplement electoral‐system‐level sources of geographic representation. We empirically test and corroborate this argument for the German case on the basis of a content analysis of parliamentary questions in the 17th German Bundestag (2009–13). In this analysis, we show that higher levels of localness among legislators and higher levels of electoral volatility in districts result in increased geographic representation.     

The effect of digital technology on prisoner behavior and reoffending: a natural stepped-wedge design

Objectives

Although prisons aspire to rehabilitate offenders, they fail to prepare prisoners for release into our modern digitally sophisticated society. The objectives of the current study were to assess the impact of digital technology on the culture of prisons, and on prisoners’ ability to self-manage their behavior and reoffending.

Method

Using a natural stepped-wedge design, 13 prisons in the UK were examined that had installed self-service technology over a period of 7 years. A longitudinal multi-level model was used to analyze frequencies of disciplinary proceedings within and between the prisons before and after installation. Reoffending was examined in comparison with a control sample. Quantitative results were supported by a prisoner survey and usage data.

Results

Prison disciplinary offenses were significantly reduced over a two-year period, and reoffending in the first year after release was reduced by 5.36% compared to a 0.78% reduction in comparison prisons. The prisoner survey and usage data suggested that prisoners felt much more in control of their lives in prison and much more confident in coping with technology in the outside world.

Conclusions

The changes created by the introduction of digital technology offer the opportunity to make prisons more efficient for staff, and places of improved learning and rehabilitation for prisoners, contributing to a safer society. This study offers an important contribution to the field of corrections, providing the first quantitative assessment of the effect of prisoner self-service technology on prisoner behavior and reoffending.

     

Leveraging Strength: The Pillars of American Grand Strategy in World War II

This article argues that U.S. leaders navigated their way through World War II challenges in several important ways. These included: sustaining a functional civil-military relationship; mobilizing inside a democratic, capitalist paradigm; leveraging the moral high ground ceded to them by their enemies; cultivating their ongoing relationship with the British, and embracing a kind of adaptability and resiliency that facilitated their ability to learn from mistakes and take advantage of their enemies’ mistakes.