A retrospective on retrospective voting

This paper critically reviews the extensive literature on retrospective voting in response to economic conditions. Each of the major types of analyses which have been performed — time-series analyses of national vote totals, presidential popularity, and cross-sectional analyses of individual survey responses — has raised several interesting and important questions. The answers that have been obtained, however, are only partial and limited, as each of these approaches entails serious problems of estimation and interpretation. Further progress in this area, we argue, requires explicit treatment of conceptual and statistical issues that have hindered previous research: the dynamic formulation of expectations and preferences, the incidence of policy (and nonpolicy) effects across the population, and notions of incumbency and political responsibility.     

Matching Judicial Supervision to Clients' Risk Status in Drug Court

This article reports outcomes from a program of experimental research evaluating the risk principle in drug courts. Prior studies revealed that participants who were high risk and had (a) antisocial personality disorder or (b) a prior history of drug abuse treatment performed better in drug court when scheduled to attend biweekly judicial status hearings in court. In contrast, participants who were low risk performed equivalently regardless of the court hearings schedule. This study prospectively matches drug court clients to the optimal schedule of court hearings based on an assessment of their risk status and compares outcomes to clients randomly assigned to the standard hearings schedule. Results confirmed that participants who were high risk and matched to biweekly hearings had better during-treatment outcomes than participants assigned to status hearings as usual. These findings provide confirmation of the risk principle in drug courts and yield practical information for enhancing the efficacy and cost-efficiency of drug courts.     

INDUSTRIAL CONFLICT IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR: THE ORIGINS AND NATURE OF THE 1985 QUEENSLAND ELECTRICITY DISPUTE

Abstract: An examination of the origins and nature of the 1985 Electricity Dispute in Queensland is the principal concern of this paper. The evidence suggests that the outbreak of the dispute can only be fully understood if due weight is given to certain important international, national and local changes in the political, economic and industrial relations spheres which took place in the 1970s and 1980s. The response of the Queensland government to the dispute, while in part explicable in terms of these changes, must be comprehended within a wider framework which also recognises the governing National Party's traditional ideological rejection of the principles of organised labour. The paper concludes that the nature and circumstances of the dispute pose a continuing, and a significant, challenge to "consensus and stability" interpretations of Australian history.     

Misclassification probability of dental discrimination functions for sex determination

Misclassification probability of dental discriminant functions for sexing American whites was evaluated using three verification procedures. These validation techniques involved sample resubstitution, jackknife classification, and use of a holdout sample. Resulting discriminant score distributions yielded correct classifications ranging between 65 and 81% depending upon the particular tooth combinations selected. Dental discriminant functions are applicable to forensic science cases if used with caution.     

Effects of inconsistent eyewitness statements on mock-jurors' evaluations of the eyewitness,perceptions of defendant culpability and verdicts

In attempting to discredit an eyewitness, it is a common strategy for an attorney to highlight inconsistencies in the eyewitness's recall testimony during cross-examination and encourage the jurors to infer, based on those inconsistencies, that the eyewitness's memory is faulty. An experiment was conducted to examine the effectiveness of this cross-examination strategy. Subjects viewed a simulated cross-examination and rendered judgmenets about the eyewitness and defendant. The type of inconsistent testimony was manipulated between subjects. Subjects exposed to inconsistent recall testimony about either central or peripheral details perceived the eyewitness as less credible (as evidenced by ratings on multiple dimensions) and the defendant as less culpable. Inconsistency on central details led to fewer convictions. Results point to the effectiveness of this cross-examination strategh.     

The criminality of female narcotics addicts: A causal modeling approach

A longitudinal model was developed relating early deviance, narcotics use, and three types of income-generating crime (property crime, drug dealing, and prostitution) among female narcotics addicts during the first 2 years of the addiction career. The model was tested by a confirmatory structural equation analysis. Early deviance predicted subsequent property crime involvement. Stability across time was demonstrated for narcotics use, property crime, and drug dealing. Strong contemporaneous relationships among these constructs were found. These findings partially replicate patterns found in previous studies for male addicts. In contrast to male addicts, a positive, instead of negative, contemporaneous relationship was found between property crime and drug dealing activities. Between constructs, cross-lag effects were generally small and only that between property crime and later narcotics use was significant. Finally, prostitution was failed to be incorporated in the model. Further research is needed to elucidate the diverse economic support systems among women which may affect the drug-crime relationship.     

Drug use and pretrial misconduct in New York city

Is recent drug use significantly associated with pretrial misconduct? Does consideration of recent drug use enhance risk classification among a sample of persons who have time free pending the disposition of their cases? Using data on arrestees in Manhattan, this paper examines these issues and some related questions. To measure recent drug use, urine samples were collected from persons shortly after their arrest and tested for four drugs: heroin, cocaine, PCP, and methadone. Two measures of pretrial misconduct are considered: whether a defendant fails to appear for a scheduled court date (FTA) and whether a defendant is rearrested prior to case disposition. Censored probit models are used to estimate the statistical association between drug test results and pretrial misconduct. Results show that drug test results are significantly associated with pretrial misconduct over and above the information typically available to judges at the time release decisions are made. Some implications of these findings for pretrial decision making are discussed.