Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States

The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition to successful attacks. From a review of indictments, affidavits, and other publicly available information, it was possible to identify lower and upper bounds for the initiation date of the plot in question as well as the ending date corresponding to either the arrest of the suspect(s) eventually convicted or an attempted/actual act of terror. These observations enable estimation of the duration distribution of jihadi terror plots in the United States accounting for the censoring and truncation effects inherent with these data (technical details appear in the Appendix). The estimated mean plot duration equals 270 days (standard error of mean 40 days), while 95 percent of all plots are estimated to fall between 33 and 750 days. These estimates suggest that on average, approximately three ongoing terror plots have been active in the United States at any point since 11 September 2001.     

Psychological Injuries,Workers’ Compensation Insurance,and Mental Health Policy Issues

A selected review of workers’ compensation (WC) statutes reveals significant discrepancies between and within state coverage of job-related psychological injuries. Examples of the different rules on compensability of different types of injuries, across various state jurisdictions, are provided using specific case examples to demonstrate some of the more pronounced idiosyncrasies within and between the state statutes. PTSD and depression are frequent WC claims, and examples of how these injuries are treated within the WC systems, between states, are offered. In addition to an overview of various psychological injuries, attention is also provided to more specific qualifying issues, including extraordinary or unusual circumstances and occupational comparison groups (e.g., similarly situated). Examples of the omission of large bodies of scientific evidence related to the epidemiology, assessment, and failure to treat workplace psychological injuries are highlighted. Individual, employee, employer, and societal costs further demonstrate the implications of untreated psychological injuries. Given the disparity between the states and the lack of parity for mental health-related injuries, recommendations are offered to begin a move towards the parity of mental and medical benefits in WC.     

Elitist democracy and China's democratization: A gradualist approach towards democratic transition by a group of Chinese intellectuals

This article examines how a group of Chinese intellectuals experimented with the western concept of elitist democracy in a Chinese context in the late 1980s. Drawing insights from western theories on political development and political culture, they argued that China's lack of a civic culture meant an elitist democracy would be an historically necessary and inevitable stage during the process of democratization. To implement elitist democracy in China, the existing political institutions should be made more open to experts, technocrats and intellectuals. This political proposal was advanced, involuntarily, during the Tiananmen Movement of Spring 1989, but eventually suffered a great setback. Nevertheless, the article maintains that elitist democracy remains relevant to China's democratization in the future.