Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories

A recent and growing body of research has employed a semiparametric group-based approach to discover underlying developmental trajectories of crime. Enthusiasm for such latent class models has not been matched with robustness and sensitivity analyses to determine how conclusions from the method vary according to fundamental methodological problems that inhere in criminological data. Using a sample of 500 delinquent boys and their official crime counts from ages 7 to 70, this paper systematically addresses how three concerns in longitudinal research—(a) length of follow-up, (b) the inclusion of exposure time (incarceration), and (3) data on involuntary desistance through death—influence our inferences about developmental trajectories. While there is some evidence of stability, a comparison of group number, shape, and group assignment across varying conditions indicates that all three data considerations can alter trajectory attributes in important ways. More precisely, longer-term data on offending and the inclusion of incarceration and mortality information appear to be key pieces of information, especially when analyzing high-rate offending patterns.     

Does the Emperor Have Financial Crisis Clothes? Reflections on the Legal Basis of the European Banking Authority

The European Union institutional package launched in response to the financial crisis used Article 114 TFEU as its legal basis. The author explores the legal basis for one of the European Supervisory Authorities recently established – the European Banking Authority (EBA). The use of Article 114 TFEU, the main Treaty basis used to harmonise laws in order to further the internal market, as the foundation for the EBA, is considered in detail. A paradox of contemporary EU institutional law is assessed here, considering whether on the one hand, the EBA is functionally both too narrow and too broad as a matter of law, while on the other hand, it may prove to be central to restoring confidence in EU regulatory powers, rendering it ‘too big to fail,’ despite its slender foundations in Article 114 TFEU.     

Perspectives on women's issues

Sommaire: La reconnaissance légale des femmes en tant que «personnes» il y a prèsde soixante-dix ans n'aura pas permis de s'assurer que les politiques et programmes gouvernementaux reflètent la perspective de la femme. Dans cet article, on discute de la nécessité d'une revue permanente et systématique des politiques et programmes pour s'assurer que l'on tient compte comme il se doit de cette perspective et pour encourager la participation feminine aux processus gouvernementaux. En se basant sur l'expérience pratique d'une ancienne députée provinciale qui fut aussi ministre responsable du statut de la femme en alberta, on donne des exemples indiquant la manière dont on pourrait procéder à la réforme. Celle-ci est tributaire d'un soutien politique existant au plus haut niveau ainsi que de la volonté politique de tenir ces engagements. Malgré les progrès réalisés au cours des années 1980, la période d'austérité budgétaire des années 1990 a souvent sabré davantage dans les programmes touchant les femmes que dans les autres. On en conclut que les gouvernements font monis aujourd'hui pour les femmes qu'il y a une décennie. Cependant, pour assurer la défense du rǒle de la femme dansnotre société, la Famous Five Foundation a été mise sur pied récemment à Calgary, pour assurer le maintien à long terme d'un institut vouéà l'analyse systématique des politiques et programmes sous une perspective féminini. Abstract: Legal recognition of women as “persons” nearly seventy years ago has not guaranteed that the perspective of women has been reflected in government policies and programs. This paper discusses the need for ongoing and systematic review of government policies and programs to ensure that adequate consideration is given to women's perspective and to encourage women's participation in government processes. Based on the practical experience of a former provincial politician who also served as minister responsible for women in the Alberta cabinet, examples are provided that demonstrate how reform may be brought about. Only through continuing political support at the highest levels, as well as political willingness to act on these commitments, can such reform be sustained. Notwithstanding progress made in the 1980s, the period of budget cutbacks in the 1990s often placed policies and programs that affected women in greater jeopardy than other programs. It is concluded that governments are doing less for women today than they were a decade ago. But, in the spirit of upholding the role of women in society, the Famous Five Foundation was established recently in Calgary, with the long-term objective of operating an institute dedicated to the systematic review of policies and programs from the perspective of women.     

Ideology and candidate evaluation

How does the expressed political ideology of voters influence their evaluation of presidential candidates? The classic answer to this question is provided by the spatial theory of electoral choice in which utility for a candidate is a function of the proximity between the voter and candidate positions on the liberal-conservative continuum. We have argued elsewhere that spatial theory, while intellectually appealing, is inadequate as an empirical model of mass behavior. We have developed a directional theory of issue voting that we believe provides a more realistic accounting of how specific policy issues influence utility for a candidate. Directional theory is based on the view that for most voters issues are understood as a dichotomous choice between two alternative positions. While ideology is widely understood as a continuum of positions, the directional model can be applied to the relationship between ideology and candidate evaluation. In this paper we compare the two theories using National Election Study data from 1972 to 1988. The results tend to favor the directional model over the traditional proximity model. We conclude by briefly tracing out the implications of this finding.     

Book Review: Troubled Talk and Talking Cures: From “Smart Talk” to Wise Conversations

Interpersonal communication is widely viewed as both a source of conflict in many social relationships and a cure-all for resolving such conflict. Some theorists assert that we simply do not interact, or talk, enough in modern society; others point out that our communication styles seem increasingly argumentative, exclude important potential contributors, or are strategically facile but shallow. The author discusses the various forms of dysfunctional talk in which people engage, then reviews four recent books, all of which focus (at least in part) on how we might talk (and negotiate) with one another more constructively: Bargaining for Advantage, by G. Richard Shell; Winning 'Em Over, by Jay C. Conger; Difficult Conversations, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton and Sheila Heen; and The Magic of Dialogue by Daniel Yankelovich.     

Declining employment among young black less‐educated men: The role of incarceration and child support

In this paper, we explore the continuing decline in employment and labor force participation of nonenrolled Black men between the ages of 16 and 34 who have a high school education or less in the 1980s and 1990s. We focus on two fairly new developments: (1) the dramatic growth in the number of young Black men who have been incarcerated and (2) strengthened enforcement of child support policies. We analyze micro‐level data from the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Groups (CPS‐ORG), into which state‐level data over time on incarceration rates and child support enforcement have been merged. Our results indicate that previous incarceration and child support enforcement can account for half or more of the decline in employment activity among Black men aged 25–34. Previous incarceration also contributes to the decline among those aged 16–24. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Issue Perceptions of Parties and Candidates: A Comparison of Norway and the United States

We examine how clearly citizens in Norway and the United States perceive the ideology and issue positions of parties and candidates. Following in the tradition of Campbell & Valen (1966) and Granberg & Holmberg (1988). we ask: Does the political system matter? We also consider the role of individual sophistication and whether sophistication has different consequences in the two cultural setting. Across a broad range of issues, we find that citizens in Norway have a sharper view of party positions than those in the United States. Sophistication influences the clarity of issue perception in both countries. However, the hypothesis that sophistication matters more in the US is not well supported.