Once a sex offender … always a sex offender: Myth or fact?

In the current focus upon prisons, prisoners, and correctional treatment, there also seems to be an increase in fear of sex offenders. “Once a sex offender, always a sex offender” has become a common belief. The following study, however, has concluded that this phrase is mistaken and misleading. The actual number of sex offenders who recidivate are few. This study, and many prior to this one, have concluded that upwards of 65% donot commit another sex offense. Most reoffenses are committed between 1 and 5 years after release, and the percentage of reoffenders declines rapidly after. A positive correlation was found between length of time spent in prison and recidivism rates. Further studies are suggested to follow up this interesting finding. Authors' Note: This paper was originally presented at the Society for Police and Criminal Psychology meeting in Austin Texas, October, 2001. The authors wish to thank Amy Phenix, Mary Moss, Roxanne Lieb, Elizabeth Drake, Lee Keene, Neal Christopherson, and Larry Greenfeld.     

The illusion of fiscal illusion: Unsticking the flypaper effect

Recognizing that it is difficult to prove a negative, this paper marshals evidence in support of the hypothesis that the widely documented flypaper effect of federal grants to state and local governments is purely a statistical artifact. A review of previous studies and a monte carlo investigation suggest that the use of an inappropriate functional form may generate an illusory flypaper effect. A local expenditure equation is then estimated in alternative specifications with ten years of state level data. Empirical results confirm the sensitivity of the flypaper effect to specification, and tests of fit unambiguously favor one functional form. That specification yields no statistical evidence of a flypaper effect.