The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections

This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.     

Australia and Scotland: the Evolution of a Long‐Distance Relationship1

Scotland's impact across the world undoubtedly stretched to the Antipodes particularly, but not only, in the colonial era. Under the “canopy of Empire”, Australia and Scotland were linked by migration, trade, capital movements and by cultural ties. But these were all two‐way ties. They did not simply colour the “Australian civilisation”. Rather there was a vital and shifting reciprocation between Scotland and Australia. The relationship between them has mainly been determined by their different economic trajectories. Today financial and skilled human capital move each way between the two countries with heightened velocity and efficiency. These flows, along with continuing cultural connections, enmesh two fully developed modern economies.     

Learning the Limits of Power: Privatization and State-Labor Interactions in Mexico

Despite repeated conflict with organized labor, the government of Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988–94) pushed an aggressive divestment agenda that transformed Mexico into Latin America's leading privatizer. Explanations of Salinas's achievements typically emphasize centralized presidential power (including control over the ruling party) and autonomy; technocratic and political savvy; and weak labor opposition. This article questions such a pure "capacity-outcome" approach. Of equal importance are the learning effects of repeated interaction between the state and labor, which changed the course of divestment struggles and thereby influenced their outcomes. Lessons learned in successive confrontations led to patterns of interaction conducive to widescale privatization. The article develops this argument through comparative analysis of major divestment episodes in the aviation, mining, steel, and telecommunications sectors.