Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

The involvement in sexual coercive behaviors of Spanish college men: prevalence and risk factors

This study aimed to know the prevalence of sexual coercion toward women perpetrated by acquaintance Spanish college men, and some personal factors associated with the involvement in these behaviors to replicate the confluence model. An anonymous questionnaire was completed by 196 university students that included an adaptation of the Sexual Experiences Survey, and other scales to assess different attitudes, motives, and experiences associated with sexual aggression. About 15% of men admitted some involvement in sexual behaviors when the woman did not want it. The control and dominance needs, the personal disposition to impersonal sex, and empathy competency showed the strongest association with the involvement in coercive sexual behaviors. Empathy moderated the effects of control and domination needs and the impersonal sex in predicting sexual coercion. Overall, our data supports the confluence model.     

Toward Federal Democracy in Spain: An Examination of Intergovernmental Relations

Intergovernmental relations is playing a key role in the emergenceof federal arrangements in post-Franco Spain. The transitionto democracy included the building of a state made up of autonomouscommunities, which is transforming the regime into one withmany centers of power, in both the historic regions and therest of the country. Intergovernmental institutional, political,and fiscal patterns demonstrate the evolving nature of self-ruleand shared rule, moving Spain closer into the orbit of otherfederal systems.     

Psychopathy Among Mexican American Gang Members: A Comparative Study

High-risk Mexican American males were assessed for levels of psychopathy. The Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version was compared in a random sample of gang members with a matched community sample of violent non-gang members and samples of forensic and psychiatric patients and undergraduate students. Analysis involved t-test, chi-square, and Cronbach's alpha statistics. More than half of the gang sample were categorized as low, 44% as moderate, and only 4% as high on psychopathy. The gang members had higher scores on the total, affective, and behavioral scores than the non-gang members. High scores on adolescent antisocial behavior, poor behavioral controls, and lack of remorse were found in both samples. Gang members scored twice as high as non-gang members on lack of empathy. Both samples were lower on psychopathy than the forensics and higher than psychiatric patients and undergraduates. The results provide grounds for early intervention efforts for this high-risk population.     

Democratic control of the armed forces: Lessons from East Asia

How and why do countries democratize? Why does the military intervene in politics? The development of a country from an authoritarian regime to a system of democratic governance is a process which has fascinated scholars and politicians alike. In the following article, Fidel V.Ramos, former president of the Philippines (1992–1998) and president of the Ramos Peace and Development Foundation, Inc., provides his own perspective on the role of the military in shaping and protecting a society, delving into his own experiences as a former army general and defense secretary. He also examines the rationale behind, and current status of, East Asian countries in the process of transformation from a military regime to a democratically governed society.     

Transnational Information Politics: NGO Human Rights Reporting, 1986–2000

What shapes the transnational activist agenda? Do non-governmental organizations with a global mandate focus on the world's most pressing problems, or is their reporting also affected by additional considerations? To address these questions, we study the determinants of country reporting by an exemplary transnational actor, Amnesty International, during 1986–2000. We find that while human rights conditions are associated with the volume of their country reporting, other factors also matter, including previous reporting efforts, state power, U.S. military assistance, and a country's media profile. Drawing on interviews with Amnesty and Human Rights Watch staff, we interpret our findings as evidence of Amnesty International's social movement-style "information politics." The group produces more written work on some countries than others to maximize advocacy opportunities, shape international standards, promote greater awareness, and raise its profile. This approach has both strengths and weaknesses, which we consider after extending our analysis to other transnational sectors.     

Transformation of the Rural Economy in the Philippines, 1988–2006

This research explores the changing structure of the rural economy in the Philippines from 1988 to 2006. We found that the expansion and upgrade of infrastructure such as electricity and roads and investment in secondary and tertiary education are important factors that induced the economic transformation of the rural economy. The importance of higher education as an entry requirement to the nonfarm labor market has declined over time, indicating that the rural nonfarm sector has been increasingly providing employment opportunities to the unskilled and the uneducated, who form the bulk of the rural poor.