Geographic Politics in the U.S. House of Representatives: Coalition Building and Distribution of Benefits

This article argues that scholars need to consider the structure of House representation to better understand distributive politics. Because House districts (unlike states) are not administrative units in the federal system, House members cannot effectively claim credit for most grant-in-aid funds. Instead, their best credit-claiming opportunities lie in earmarked projects, a small fraction of federal grant dollars. As a consequence, I expect to find: (1) political factors have a much greater effect on the distribution of earmarked projects than on federal funds generally; and (2) project grants are a better support-building tool for coalition leaders than allocations to states. I test this argument with a study of the 1998 reauthorization of surface transportation programs and find strong support for both hypotheses .     

Leader heuristics,political knowledge and voting in Britain's AV referendum

This paper uses data gathered in the British Election Study's 2011 AV Referendum Survey to investigate the impact of party leader images on referendum voting. The emphasis on leader images accords well with research showing that leader heuristics have sizable effects on voting in major referendums and general elections in Britain and other mature democracies. Reacting to these findings, some analysts have argued that the effects of leader images are heterogeneous, being stronger for voters with lower levels of political knowledge. In contrast, consistent with recent research in experimental economics and political psychology, it can be hypothesized that more knowledgeable voters rely more heavily on leader heuristics than do less knowledgeable individuals. Using multivariate statistical techniques developed for interpreting interaction effects in nonlinear models, analyses indicate that a political knowledge index focusing on the electoral system does not have statistically significant effects on referendum voting. However, voters' knowledge of leaders' positions on AV does interact with leader images. The analyses show that voters with higher levels of political knowledge are influenced more strongly by leader heuristics than are those who are less knowledgeable.     

Aviation Security,Risk Assessment,and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk‐averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a “break‐even” cost‐benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost‐effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost‐effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk‐neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk‐averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year—a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.     

The Indonesian 'New Order' as New Sovereign Space: Its Creation and Narrative of Self-concealment

This paper introduces and clarifies Carl Schmitt's analytical insights on emergencies and outlines their relevance in considerations of the creation of new sovereign spaces and polities. It then argues that Schmitt's analytical perspective may be used to understand recent and ongoing attempts by collective political actors to resolve circumstances of political and spatial unfamiliarity in East Asia. The tragic events of 30 September-1 October 1965 are examined in Indonesia's case. When perceived as an emergency, their resolution led to outcomes that were both anticipated by and beyond Schmitt's theoretical expectations. The most significant (and theoretically expected) outcomes of this historic moment - de facto sovereignty and a secure space - were so novel in the Indonesian context that their military creators were constrained to hide this fact. They did so by authoring a self-concealing narrative of both the moment itself and the political nature of the resulting 'New Order' polity. While the phenomenon of the self-concealing historical narrative was not anticipated in Schmitt's thinking, its appearance in the Indonesian case is, paradoxically, the clearest evidence of the occurrence of an emergency. Moreover, the creation and perpetuation of the new space by the emergency-ending actor, as well as the sovereign power to decide matters of identity and substance for this polity, matter more than the historical accuracy or longevity of the narrative designed to obscure their essence.     

Improving the Implementation and Effectiveness of Out‐of‐School‐Time Tutoring

School districts are spending millions on tutoring outside regular school day hours for economically and academically disadvantaged students in need of extra academic assistance. Under No Child Left Behind (NCLB), parents of children in persistently low‐performing schools were allowed to choose their child's tutoring provider, and together with school districts, they were also primarily responsible for holding providers in the private market accountable for performance. We present results from a multisite, mixed‐method longitudinal study of the impact of out‐of‐school time (OST) tutoring on student reading and mathematics achievement that link provider attributes and policy and program administration variables to tutoring program effectiveness. We find that many students are not getting enough hours of high‐quality, differentiated instruction to produce significant gains in their learning, in part because of high hourly rates charged by providers for tutoring. We identify strategies and policy levers that school districts can use to improve OST tutoring policy design and launch improved programs as waivers from NCLB are granted.     

Systems theory and policy practice: An exploration

Systems approaches in policy analysis have had a chequered history. Expectations that hard (quantitative) systems analysis would lead to better answers to policy problems have largely been disappointed. Yet systems theory has itself moved on, to embrace the concept of autopoiesis and a variety of soft systems methodologies. Collectively, these theories offer a way of analysing policy quite distinct from the institutionalist approaches which tend to dominate the theory and practice of policy-making. Rather than selecting instruments to fit a particular kind of policy problem (the conventional approach to policy design) systems analysis suggests that the nature of the problem cannot be understood separately from its solution. For policy problems characterised by complexity (such as those concerned with environmental management and regulation, and urban re-development) using systems concepts offers a way of rationalising aspects of existing practice and of suggesting directions for improvement.     

Electoral-system change in Latvia and the elections of 2010

Latvia’s highly distinctive proportional electoral system owes its origins to Latvia’s 1922 Constitution and the new democracy’s electoral legislation of 1919 and 1922. Latvia’s unique feature lies in its preference system, offering the voters the opportunity to judge each candidate on their party’s list. Although the system appears to maximise responsiveness to voters’ preferences, in practice this promise remained unfulfilled and the representative quality of parliament was questionable. This was in large measure because of the capacity of candidates to stand in multiple constituencies. In 2009 amendments to the electoral law altered this key provision. This change clearly made a difference, but it could not resolve fundamental problems of Latvia’s political process in general and its political parties in particular.     

Lustration in poland and the former czechoslovakia: a study in decommunization

This article examines the process of decommunization in Poland and the former Czechoslovakia as it impacted opportunity for public services employment in elected or civil service offices. In each setting we describe the motivations expressed for and against lustration in the public service, explain the patterns of decommunization in each country and consider these events from legal, ethical and political points of view.