What If? The Historian and the Counterfactual

This essay lays out why many scholars, particularly historians, are inherently skeptical of counterfactuals. It highlights several of the most obvious errors that are often made by those undertaking counterfactual reasoning. It also highlights how these articles go a long way toward developing effective rules for the appropriate and most effective use of counterfactuals.     

Price discrimination in a rent-seeking economy

This paper examines the incentive and the consequences of using discriminatory pricing by a monopolist in a rent-seeking economy. It is shown that, even if all consumer groups' demands have identical elasticities at any given price, the monopolist has an incentive to charge a lower price to high pressure consumer groups so as to alleviate their rent-seeking efforts in challenging its monopolistic power. Furthermore, it is shown that by allowing the firm to price discriminate total welfare may increase, even if all rent-seeking expenditures are completely wasteful.     

Assessing the “will of the people”: an investigation into town service delivery satisfaction

Abstract: The “will of the people^‘’ is considered to be the highest authority in a democracy and said to be the driving force behind public policies. Yet not many past studies have assessed the level of citizen satisfaction with government services and identified ways of improving service delivery. At a municipal level, there is even less emphasis on measuring consumer satisfaction. This study measures citizens' satisfaction with municipal services in a town in Atlantic Canada. A taxonomy of government services based on user experience with the service and heterogeneity of consumer needs was developed and tested. Results indicate that while consumer satisfaction with municipal services is high, it does vary based on the nature of the service. Some action guidelines are suggested at the end of the paper to improve town service delivery. Sommaire: La «volonté du peuple» est considérée comme étant la plus haute autorité dans une démocratice, et l'on dit même que c'est elle qui est à l'origine des politiques publiques. Pourtant, peu d'études ont examiné le niveau de satisfaction du citoyen en ce qui concerne les services gouvernementaux et ont tenté de cerner les moyens permettant d'améliorer ces services. Au niveau municipal, on fait encore moins d'efforts pour mesurer la satisfaction des consommateurs. La présente étude mesure la satisfaction des citoyens à l'égard des services municipaux dans une ville située dans la région Atlantique du Canada. Une taxonomie des services gouvernementaux basée sur l'expérience des utilisateurs et sur l'hétérogénéité des besoins des consommateurs a été mise au point et testée. Les résultats indiquent que, bien que la satisfaction des consommateurs face aux services municipaux soit élevée, elle varie selon la nature de services. À la fin de l'article, on suggère quelques lignes directrices pour améliorer la prestation de services des villes.     

Comparison of the elemental composition of office document paper: evidence in a homicide case

Fraudulent substitution of a page within a multiple page document such as a will or business contract, the counterfeit manufacture of paper banknotes, and linking ransom or extortion notes have all been the focus of criminal investigations at one time or another. In a recent homicide investigation, document examiners were requested to compare a threatening letter received by a business partner of the deceased with paper samples seized under warrant from a suspect's house. Through a quantitative elemental analysis of the concentrations of nine elements (Na, Mg, Al, Mn, Sr, Y, Ba, La, and Ce) within the questioned and specimen documents, determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), it was concluded that (i) the paper of the threatening letter originated from a different source to that of the paper seized from the suspect's house and (ii) all six pages of paper seized from the suspect's house originated from the same source. This discrimination of paper is presented as both a statistical t-test analysis (99.9% confidence limit) as well as construction of an elemental fingerprint for individual replicates within the questioned and specimen sample populations. This is the first reported use of the comparison of the elemental composition of document paper, determined by ICP-MS, to assist in a criminal investigation.     

Vulnerability to Friends’ Suicide Influence: The Moderating Effects of Gender and Adolescent Depression

This paper examines whether severity of depression reduces or intensifies the relationship between friends’ suicide attempt and adolescent's own attempt to commit suicide, and whether there are gender differences in this interrelationship. Using logistic regression and data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents studied at 2 points in time, this study yielded significant findings. First, friends’ suicide attempt and adolescent depression each predicts adolescent's own attempt to commit suicide, and these effects are similar for both boys and girls. Second, highly depressed adolescents are less likely than low- or nondepressed adolescents to attempt suicide when their friends attempt suicide, and this relationship is observed mainly among adolescent boys. Finally, for adolescent girls, depression reduces the relationship between friends’ suicidal attempt and adolescent's own attempt but this effect is not statistically significant. These results are discussed in light of their theoretical importance and policy implications.Professor of Sociology at San Diego State University. Has published in the areas of crime/delinquency, drug use/abuse, intergenerational processes, and psychosocial stress. Recent publications have appeared in Western Criminology Review, Social Psychology Quarterly, Sociological Inquiry, Journal of Adolescent Research, and Youth and Society.     

Australian Antecedents of the Third Way

New Labour theorists have been prone to identify American New Progressivism as the proximate source of 'third way' ideas. In this article we argue that, if the focus is on the governing practice rather than on the naming of a governing orientation, a case can be made for seeing Australian Labor in government from 1983 to 1996 as a progenitor of third way thinking and as a specific source of New Labour policy development in a number of areas. Taking Stuart White's account of the main dimensions of third way programmatic realignment as our guide, we discuss the success of the Hawke/Keating Labor governments in reducing the direct provider role of state, developing new forms of collective provision, reforming the tax system, making social policy more employment-friendly and creating the institutions of an asset-based egalitarianism. We conclude by pointing out that, whilst there are many common themes in Australian Labor practice and New Labor rhetoric, and some evidence of specific policy transfer from one to the other, a plausible case can also be made for seeing many of the policy initiatives of the Hawke/Keating era as a reworking of an older Australian Labor tradition of regulatory state activism.     

THE STATE SOCIALIST WELFARE SYSTEM and the POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC HOUSING REFORM IN URBAN CHINA

This aticle analyses China's housing reform against the background that a new housing policy has been implemented since 1988. The crucial point of the 1998 housing policy package is to stop the allocation system of state‐subsidized public housing. By changing this rule of the game, a major institutional obstacle to housing reform will be removed, and some unfeasible policy measures become feasible within the new institutional context.     

Left–right political scales

Nomination: 'Some expert judgments ' live on by Mogens N. Pedersen, p.147
Reflections: Revisiting expert judgements by Peter Mair & Francis G. Castles, p.150     

Left-right political scales

Abstract Although left-right scales are an inherent feature of much cross-national research, they have necessarily been created on a somewhat ad hoc basis, since the empirical foundation for valid cross-national scales rarely exists. This paper seeks to provide such a foundation by using judgements of party ideological position which are both explicit and non-idiosyncratic across a wide range of countries. These judgements derive from a so-called 'expert' survey of leading political scientists in Western Europe, the USA, and elsewhere. It is our hope that the scales which we derive in this way may prove useful in a wide variety of contexts of comparative research.     

同一个体发毛角蛋白电泳谱型的分析

用SDS -PAGGE对收集到的 2 0例人体表毛发 (头发、阴毛、腋毛、腿毛 )角蛋白组分进行了分析。结果表明 ,同一个体毛发角蛋白电泳谱型基本相同 ,用激光光密度仪对电泳凝胶板扫描后证实 ,同一个体毛发角蛋白组分相对百分含量也无明显差异 ;人头部不同部位 (顶部、左侧、右侧、额部、枕部 )头发角蛋白的电泳谱型和角蛋白组分相对百分含量也基本相同。同一个体毛发角蛋白组分的分析 ,可为法医物证学鉴定中的毛发个人识别提供重要的依据。