Child malnutrition and mortality in China and Vietnam in a comparative perspective

Under the traditional socialist central planning system, economic growth in China and Vietnam was unstable and not very satisfactory. Yet, both countries achieved a remarkable progress in the area of human development. Later, under the market socialist model, China and Vietnam achieved very high rates of GDP growth, and malnutrition declined significantly. Yet, income distribution and the provision of key public services deteriorated in both countries. Progress in reducing child mortality in China was relatively slow, before improving in the early 2000s. Although Vietnam is much poorer than China, and has been growing less fast, its record in this area was markedly better. We show that this apparent paradox is due mainly to the fact that the negative side-effects of market-oriented reforms have reached a more advanced and alarming stage in China than in Vietnam. Our results also suggest that an additional factor is constituted by a relatively better status of women in Vietnam with respect to China. However, we also warn that signs are emerging in Vietnam too, indicating that it is entering a stage of development where the social problems now evident in China are starting to manifest themselves on a large and worrying scale. Our policy conclusions advocate in favour of re-establishing (in a new form, compatible with the maintenance of the economic dynamism of the market socialist system) some positive features of the pre-reform socialist model, among which universal public provision of basic public services is paramount.

Policy Failure in the Triangle of Growth: Labour Market,Human Capital,and Innovation in Spain and Italy

This article focuses on the Italian and Spanish models of growth and analyses labour market, human capital and innovation policy reforms since the mid 1990s. The comparison with France and Germany shows the constraints that have hindered the rise of institutional complementarities and the competitiveness of the two Mediterranean countries already before the introd uction of the euro and the outbreak of the 2008 crisis. The analysis highlights both similarities and structural differences between Italy and Spain and demonstrates the long-term institutional conditions that explain why the economic breakdown has had such a deep impact on the two countries.     

Particle Analysis for the Detection of Gunshot Residue (GSR) in Nasal Samples Using Scanning Laser Ablation and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (SLA-ICPMS)

Currently, aluminum stub with carbon adhesive devices are used to collect inorganic gunshot residues (GSR) from the hands of a shooter. In an ideal shooting case, the gunshot particles do not persist for more than 2 h in the hands of the shooter, provided that the hands have not been washed. However, for forensic analysis and inference, the extended persistence of GSR would be desirable. This study investigates a novel GSR sampling and detection protocol. Sampling was performed in the nostrils using swab devices impregnated in ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). The GSRs persisted for longer periods in nasal mucus than on the hands, and particles were detected 6 h after shooting occurred. The analytical determination was conducted by scanning laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (SLA-ICPMS) which enable the identification of the number of particles and their elemental composition. Seventeen isotope signals corresponding to ¹³C, ²⁰⁵Tl and 15 analytes that are usually associated with the composition of GSR residues were monitored: ²⁷Al, ²⁹Si, ³¹P, ³³S, ³⁵Cl, ³⁹K, ⁴⁴Ca, ⁵⁷Fe, ⁶⁰Ni, ⁶³Cu, ⁶⁶Zn, ¹¹⁸Sn, ¹²¹Sb, ¹³⁷Ba, and ²⁰⁸Pb. The SLA technique enabled the reduction of the swab analysis time to 40 min. The effectiveness of this methodology was evaluated with two types of firearms: a pistol and a shotgun. The results indicated that the methodology proposed for the analysis of the nasal GSR was effective and that it can improve or complement the forensic analyses and inferences presented in a court.     

Multi-Rater Agreement Using the Adapted Fracture Healing Scale (AFHS) for the Assessment of Tubular Bones on Conventional Radiographs: Preliminary Study*

Better understanding of the timing of fracture healing may help in cases of interpersonal violence but also of personal identification. The intra- and inter-rater agreement for the adapted fracture healing scale (AFHS) assessing the post-traumatic time interval on radiographs were tested. This is a preliminary study, providing essential information on method reliability for upcoming studies using the AFHS. Five raters (two radiologists, a forensic pathologist, an orthopedist, and an anthropologist) were presented with a test in three parts consisting of 85 radiographs (from 30 adults) of fractures of tubular bones in different stages of healing purposefully selected from more than 1500 radiographs. The raters were firstly asked to assess 15 features describing fracture healing as present, absent, or not assessable. Thereafter, the raters were asked to choose from the AFHS a single-stage best representing the observed healing pattern. The intra- and inter-rater agreement were assessed using single-rating, absolute agreement, two-way mixed-effects intra-class correlation (ICC) coefficients. The intra-rater ICC of radiologist 1 ranged from 0.80 to 0.94. The radiologists’ inter-rater ICC ranged from 0.68 to 0.74, while it ranged from −0.01 to 0.90 for the other raters. The good to excellent ICC among the radiologists and forensic anthropologist provides good foundation for the use of the AFHS in forensic cases of trauma dating. The poor to good results for the other physicians indicate that using the AFHS requires training in skeletal anatomy and radiology.     

Of words and deeds: Latin American declaratory regionalism, 1994–2014

The idea of an integrated Latin American region goes back to the early post-independence period, and yet, in substance, Latin American regionalism has remained far behind its stated aims. The perceived implementation gap has raised the question why policymakers continued to talk about something they appeared to avoid in practice. This article contributes to the debate on Latin America’s integration gap by exploring the phenomenon of declaratory regionalism - the practice of referring to the region and its institutions in political speeches. Based on quantitative text analysis of the speeches presidents delivered annually at the UN’s General Assembly between 1994 and 2014, we show that this practice has not been uniform. Presidents distinguish between different forms of regionalism, integration and cooperation, and frame the geographical region they refer to accordingly. In motivating presidents to speak about integration as opposed to cooperation, ideology and democratic performance stand out as crucial factors.     

Political instability and inflation volatility

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effects of political instability, social polarization and the quality of institutions on inflation volatility over time and across countries. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering 160 countries, analyzed in the period from 1960 to 1999, this paper finds that higher degrees of political instability and social polarization, less democracy, and lower de facto central bank independence are associated with more volatile inflation rates. Furthermore, political instability has greater effects on inflation volatility in developing countries with lower degrees of central bank independence and economic freedom.     

Budget Transparency, Fiscal Performance, and Political Turnout: An International Approach

This paper attempts, for the first time, to assess the relationships between budget transparency, fiscal situation, and political turnout using a comparative international approach. With this aim, the authors build a comprehensive index of budget transparency encompassing 40 budget features based on international standards for a sample of 41 countries. They find a positive relationship between national government fiscal balance and budget transparency: The more information the budget discloses, the less the politicians can use fiscal deficits to achieve opportunistic goals. The univariate analysis shows a positive relationship between political turnout and transparency. This result gives some evidence of a positive answer to the question raised by James Alt and David Dreyer Lassen: Does transparency affect political outcomes such as turnout? To some extent, that the more transparent the budget reports are, the more incentives people have to vote. With respect to three variables—transparency, government fiscal balance, and electoral turnout—three clusters of countries arise: low transparency–fiscal imbalance, low transparency–small fiscal imbalance and high transparency–fiscal surplus.