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Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked. 相似文献
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Passarino G Ciccone G Siragusa R Tappero P Mollo F 《The American journal of forensic medicine and pathology》2005,26(2):106-116
This investigation was carried out on 851 consecutive judicial autopsies of drug addicts who died mostly of heroin overdose from 1977 to 1996. Research of anti-HIV/HBV/HCV antibodies was performed, and histologic sections were retrospectively reviewed. More than 65% were HBV/HCV-positive and about 17% HIV-positive; females were HIV-positive more often than males. Intracranial microhemorrhages were frequently found; cerebral infectious diseases were rare. Inflammatory heart lesions, myocardial fibrosis, and acute ischemia were common. Interstitial nephritis (found in about 8%) was more frequent in females, in older patients, and in those carrying HIV infection; glomerular sclerosis was detected in about 12%. Acute bronchitis and/or pneumonia was demonstrated in 12%, without significant association with HIV infection; pulmonary hemorrhages, foreign body granulomas, and food aspiration were also commonly seen; hyperplasia of pulmonary perivascular lymphatic tissue was rather characteristic. Liver was carrying steatosis in 66.3% and/or hepatitis in 64.5%; acute hepatitis was more frequent in females, chronic hepatitis in older subjects and in those proven positive for hepatotropic viruses; cirrhosis occurred more often in older patients, in those carrying virus infection, and in consumers of nonnarcotics drugs such as ethanol. No pathologic finding was clearly related to drug abuse; therefore, during autopsy, drug addiction can be suspected, but anamnestic and circumstantial data are needed to lead pathologists to request toxicologic analysis to ascertain the cause of death. The present investigation emphasizes that, in addition to the risk of death by overdose, the high incidence of acute and chronic diseases could seriously undermine the health status of heroin and/or other drug consumers. 相似文献
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Sawaguchi T Kato I Franco P Sottiaux M Kadhim H Shimizu S Groswasser J Togari H Kobayashi M Nishida H Sawaguchi A Kahn A 《Forensic science international》2005,149(2-3):205-217
Of 27,000 infants whose sleep-wake characteristics were studied under the age of 6 months, 38 died unexpectedly 2-12 weeks after the sleep recording in a pediatric sleep laboratory. Of these infants, 26 died of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), and 12 of definitely identified causes. The frequency and duration of sleep apneas were analysed. Sleep recordings and brainstem histopathology were studied to elucidate the possible relationship between sleep apnea and neuropathological changes within the arousal system. Immunohistochemical analyses were conducted using tryptophan hydroxylase (TrypH), a serotonin synthesizing enzyme, and growth-associated phosphoprotein 43 (GAP43), a marker of synaptic plasticity. The terminal-deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) method was used for apoptosis. The pathological and physiological data were correlated for each infant. In the SIDS victims, statistically significant positive correlations were seen between the number of TrypH-positive neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus of the midbrain and the duration of central apneas (p = 0.03), between the number of TUNEL-positive glial cells in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTN) and the average number of spines in GAP43-positive neurons in the PPTN (p = 0.04). These findings in the dorsal raphe nucleus of the midbrain and PPTN, that play important roles in the arousal pathway suggest a possible link between changes in arousal and SIDS. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: Before a Court of Law testifying in DNA‐evidence cases, scientists are often challenged with the idea that the more markers (loci) the better, i.e., why does the scientist not use 16 or more markers? This paper introduces a new perspective, decision analysis, to deal with the problem of the number of markers to type in a criminal context. The decision‐making process, which plays a key role in the routine work of a forensic scientist, consists of the rational choice, given personal objectives, between two or more possible outcomes when the consequences of the choice are uncertain. Simulated results support the hypothesis that analytical added value does not increase with the number of markers. 相似文献
46.
Pierrini G Doyle S Champod C Taroni F Wakelin D Lock C 《Forensic science international》2007,167(1):43-48
Currently, the use of isotopic ratio as corroborative evidence in criminal trials is explored. Beyond the analytical challenges that have been reported elsewhere, the crucial issue of the interpretation of analytical results in a fair and balanced way remains poorly documented. The aim of this paper is to propose a likelihood ratio approach for the evaluation of stable isotope data acquired from semtex samples. It will also lead to recommendations in relation to the acquisition of normalised international data. 相似文献
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A novel Bayesian methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess handwriting evidence by means of a likelihood ratio (LR) designed for multivariate data. This methodology is presented and its applicability is shown through a simulated case of a threatening anonymous text where a suspect is apprehended. The shape of handwritten characters a, d, o, and q of the threatening text was compared with characters of the true writer, and then with two other writers, one with similar and one with dissimilar characters shape compared to the true writer. In each of these three situations, 100 draws of characters were made and the resulting distributions of LR were established to consider the natural handwriting variation. LR values supported the correct hypothesis in every case. This original Bayesian methodology provides a coherent and rigorous tool for the assessment of handwriting evidence, contributing undoubtedly to integrate the field of handwriting examination into science. 相似文献