On-line and Memory-based: Revisiting the Relationship Between Candidate Evaluation Processing Models

Reexamining the relationship between the on-line and memory-based information processing models, this study presents a theoretical basis for the co-occurrence of on-line and memory-based processes and proposes a hybrid model. The study empirically tests the hybrid model by employing real-time tracking of participants?? reactions to two candidates in a US presidential primary election debate. The findings confirm an independent, but complementary relationship between on-line and memory-based information processing in an individual??s candidate evaluation and vote choice. The co-occurrence of the two modes applies to an individual??s comparison of candidates as well. The implications of the hybrid model for the functioning of democracy are discussed.     

Humanitarian Intervention After Iraq: Legal Ideals vs. Military Realities

The theory of humanitarian intervention has received new attention since the humanitarian crises of the 1990s and the United States’ becoming the world's sole superpower. The actual practice of humanitarian intervention, however, has declined. It is difficult to forge the political will for it when the countries composing the global organizations that could provide the political legitimacy disagree on an intervention, and with so few countries—mainly the United States and Great Britain—capable of providing the required expeditionary forces. Moreover, the Afghanistan and Iraq wars have diminished the United States’ political will, military capability, and diplomatic credibility to conduct future humanitarian interventions. In particular, those wars precluded its intervention in the current genocide in Darfur. Regional bodies such as the African Union may be the only entities that can, with aid and training, undertake effective interventions.     

America's Struggle Against the Wahhabi/Neo-Salafi Movement

One consequence of using labels such as the “global war on terrorism,” “the long war,” “the global struggle against violent extremism” or any name that dissociates the conflict from the Wahhabi/neo-Salafi movement is that Americans lack the necessary framework for assessing U.S. policies. Misconceptions concerning the war proliferate on both the Left and the Right because of the absence of an analytical framework to provide precise vocabulary identifying the origins and objectives of the enemy. The current war and the sources of Al Qaeda's conduct can only be understood by examining the complex history of Arabia, the U.S.-Saudi alliance, and a particular historical cycle of corruption, decadence, violent purification, and moral restoration that characterizes the Wahhabi/neo-Salafi narrative.     

东南亚地区恐怖主义的新动向

印度尼西亚和菲律宾仍是区域恐怖主义活动的主要基地,但教派团体在分化、重组又分化组合,因此控制起来比以往更加困难。泰国南部的动乱仍然使人忧虑,但目前还没有发现本地暴徒寻求和接受外界援助的可靠线索。在印度尼西亚,2005年10月1日的巴厘岛爆炸案再一次把本区域最著名的教     

Grand Strategy for the Next Administration

With the current administration's attention, resources and reputation so tied to Iraq, the prospect for significant changes in American foreign policy are limited in George W. Bush's remaining months in office. A new administration coming into power in January 2009, however, gives the United States a chance to revisit the changes to American foreign policy implemented after 9/11, as well as to consider any needed course corrections. The opportunity such changes in administration offers is a major strength of the American political system. Clearly, now is the time to start thinking about such issues.     

The Tasks of Democratic Transition and Transferability

There is no single road to democracy. However, there are some factors that seem to have consistently positive effects on democratic development. These include the existence of a large and diverse civil society; a sharp political break with the authoritarian past, followed by regular turnovers in political leadership and governing parties; stable state borders; and political institutions which empower parliaments and, in culturally diverse societies, give minorities political voice without locking them into permanent coalitions that block collaboration across group divides in pursuit of common goals. Less important are economic considerations—though economic reforms are far more likely in democratic settings than in authoritarian regimes and far more supportive over the medium- and long-term of robust economic performance.     

Developing an Empirically Based Typology of Delinquent Youths

A number of personality-based typologies have been developed to differentiatejuvenile delinquents. Some of these typologies have been faulted for theirmethod of construction, for their failure to provide outcome measures, orbecause they are dated and have not been retested with more recent delinquentpopulations. This paper describes efforts to develop an empirically derived,inductive typology of juvenile delinquents that can be used in appliedsettings to facilitate a better understanding of program outcomes and enableplacement authorities better to predict program effectiveness. The dataemployed in the analysis come from an outcome-based informationsystem—ProDES—that has been operational for more than4 years in Philadelphia. Unlike many such databases, ProDES was jointlydesigned by researchers and practitioners to serve a large system ofcommunity and institutional programs. Included among the outcome measuresare four standardized, self-reported personality scales that comprise 14subscales and form the basis of the typology. This paper describes themethods used to construct the typology, the substance of the classificationsystem, and its potential utility for program evaluation.     

‘Hybrid Threats’: Neither Omnipotent Nor Unbeatable

Hybrid threats have now joined a growing suite of alternative concepts about the ever evolving character of modern conflict. Here and abroad, the hybrid threat construct has found traction in official policy circles despite its relative novelty. It has been cited by the U.S. Secretary of Defense in articles and speeches, and by policymakers now serving in the Pentagon. Heretofore, the rapidly growing hybrid threat literature has focused on the land warfare aspects of the threat. Modern hybrid threats, including Hezbollah and Iran, have demonstrated the ability to employ irregular tactics and advanced naval capabilities along with illegal or terrorist activity. Thus, the hybrid threat is applicable to naval forces and the U.S. Navy needs to dust off lessons learned from its last experience in the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s to better prepare for an even more challenging future.