INTERNAL COMPETITION OVER FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING: THE CASE OF U.S. ARMS SALES TO IRAN

Two models of foreign-policy making, the bureaucratic politics model and the royal court model, are helpful in explaining U.S. arms sales to Iran in 1985 and in 1986. The bureaucratic politics model is particularly useful in clarifying both the positions taken by the leaders of the foreign policy bureaucracy to the arms sales proposals and the behavior of these officials as the sales were implemented. However, the royal court model best ac- counts for the decisive role of the president and the deference given to those advisers perceived to be acting in his interests.     

Title Assurance and Incentives for Efficient Land Use

This paper develops an economic analysis of a general class of land title systems, focusing specifically on incentives for efficient exchange and investment in land. The analysis abstracts from certain institutional features of actual title systems, and is therefore largely normative in nature. Nevertheless, the results are relevant for a complete evaluation of alternative systems, especially for countries where land development (or redevelopment) is a primary objective. The results suggest that in most cases, land registration is preferred to the recording system on exchange and investment grounds, holding other factors constant.     

Reviews

Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), The Strategic Quadrangle. Russia, China, Japan and the United States in East Asia. New York: The Council on Foreign Relations, 1995, vii + 221 pp., $16.95.

Theodore H. Friedgut & Jeffrey W. Hahn (eds), Local Power and Post‐Soviet Politics, New York and London: M. E Sharpe, 1994, xv + 292 pp., £40.00 h/b, £19.95 p/b.

Paul G. Lewis, Central Europe since 1945. London: Longman, 1994, xv + 135 pp., £13.99.

Gareth Winrow, Turkey in Post‐Soviet Central Asia. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1995, 53 pp.

Henry S. Rowen, Charles Wolf, Jr & Jeanne Zlotnick (eds), Defence Conversion, Economic Reform, and the Outlook for the Russian and Ukrainian Economies. Basingstoke: Macmillan Press, 1994, 262 pp., £34.00.

Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil‐Military Conflict over Soviet National Security, 1917–1992. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1993, xiii + 259 pp., $35.75.

Sergei N. Goncharov, John W. Lewis & Xue Litai, Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1993, xi + 393 pp., £30.00.

Andrew Horton (ed.), Inside Soviet Film Satire: Laughter with a Lash, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993, xii + 171 pp., £27.95; Michael Brashinsky & Andrew Horton (eds), Russian Critics on the Cinema of Glasnost, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, viii+167 pp., £30.00.

Vida T. Johnson & Graham Petrie, The Films of Andrei Tarkovsky. A Visual Fugue. Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 1995, xviii + 334 pp. Distributed in the UK and Ireland by Open University Press, £42.50 h/b, £18.99 p/b.

Andrea Peto & Mark Pittaway (eds), Women's History—Women in History: Central and East European Perspectives, Central European University, History Department, Working Paper Series 1, Budapest, 153 pp. (EU Press, 1994).     

Reviews

Kaunda's Zambia, 1964 ‐ 1991. A Select and Annotated Bibliography compiled by Naomi Musiker.

South African Institute of International Affairs, Bibliographical Series No. 26, Johannesburg. 1993. viii plus 426pp.

Environment, Employment and Development edited by A.S. Bhalla. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1992. x plus 177pp. including bibliography.

Poverty in Developing Countries: A Bibliography of Publications by the International Labour Office World Employment Programme, 1975–91. International Labour Office Bibliography No 12. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1992. viii plus 152pp.

The South African Tripod: Studies in Economics, Politics and Conflict by B. Oden, T. Ohlson, A. Davidson, P. Strand, M. Lundahl, and L. Moritz. Scandinavian Institute of International Studies, Uppsala, 1994. 281pp. including tables and graphs.

Tears of the Dead, the Social Biography of an African Family by Richard Werbner. Baobab Books: Harare and Edinburgh University Press, 1991. xi plus 211pp. including genealogies and illustrations.

The Politics of the National Arts Festival by Kenneth Grundy. Occasional Paper, No. 34, Institute of Social and Economic Research. Rhodes University, Grahamstown. 66 pp. including notes.

The Agrarian Question in Southern Africa and Accumulation from Below: Economics and Politics in the Struggle for Democracy by Michael Neocosmos. Research Report No. 93, The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1993. 79 pp. including notes and bibliography.

The Bushman Myth: The Making of a Namibian Underclass by Robert J. Gordon. Boulder, Westview Press, Colorado and Oxford, 1992. xiv plus 304 pp. including maps, tables, notes, references and index.

A Bed Called Home: Life in the Migrant Labour Hostels of Cape Town by Mamphela Ramphele. David Philip: Cape Town, 1993. vii plus 152pp. including illustrations, appendix, bibliography and index.

The Small and the New in Southern Africa: The Foreign Relations of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland since their Independence. A Select and Annotated Bibliography compiled by L.E. Andor. South African Institute of International Affairs, Bibliographical Series No. 25, Johannesburg, 1993. x plus 526pp.     

Voice stress evaluators and lie detection

Proponents of vocal stress analysis systems argue that they are able to detect spoken deception by analysis of "stress" in the voice signal. Presumably, they do so by examining traces made by laryngeal microtremors which, they claim exist in the voice, are associated with stress, and ultimately are associated with lying. However, most research that seeks to identify the relationships between microtremors and laryngeal function has produced negative results, and data on the ability of voice analyzers to detect stress from speech--or to identify spoken deception--have been negative or "mixed" in nature. Since perspectives based on available results leave a number of questions unanswered, a series of experiments has been undertaken. The first was focused on the basic acoustic/temporal correlates of stress in voice (the subject of an earlier report), the second on examination of stress by commercial voice analyzers, and the third on the detection of relatively high-risk lies by this same type of voice analysis procedure. It was found that correct stress/nonstress identifications occurred only at chance levels; the lie/nonlie identification scores were quite similar with professional "examiners" performing at about the same level of accuracy as other auditors. The following review is divided into two parts: a history of the controversy and a presentation of the two cited experiments.